Official War With Iran Thread

[Json]

If Trump starts a war with Iran he won’t get re-elected. Oil would be $500 dollars a barrel and the first month of fighting you are looking at 10k US casualties with the Mideast in total chaos.

Would it? At least in the short term? Domestic production is way higher than were it was in Bush era and Trump can already undo environmental restrictions to get more.

The problem with Iran is insurgency and being able to strike so many places. Plus Iraq would be pulled back in.

 

[jj23]

@ZoeGod is convinced there will be a war. I still doubt there will be a war, Bolton, Pompeo etc are examples of extreme stupidity but those crazy neocons do not have full control yet, there will be a lot of internal opposition, and so many analysts from Pentagon, CIA, NSA are drowning them in intelligence showing what war with Iran would be like. The war gamed scenarios are a disaster not because the US would lose in a conventional fashion but it is the asymmetrical nature of it.

First you must realize that Iran has been preparing for this since 1979. The entire armed forces are designed to fight the US.

There will not be any limited attack on Iran, if a single bomb lands on Iranian soil they will launch everything, leading to full scale war.

Within the first 24 hours Iran will destroy the oil fields in Saudi and use with its latest generation missiles that are totally immune to US patriot missiles. Add in the integration of S300 which has been modified to be as good as the S400 (Iran hasn’t requested S400 from Russia yet) and you have a situation where an Iran attack won't be stopped easily.

US bases in the Gulf will also be hit killing thousands within the first days.

You won't be seeing a carrier group sunk because although the politicians are morons, the US Navy knows that it's carriers are obsolete and only useful for bullying third world countries that can't fight back.

Any carrier group will be outside the Gulf in the Indian Ocean near Oman.

A carrier group inside the Gulf will be sunk within hours of the start of the war. The US navy has absolutely no defense at all, it's a sitting duck.

Within the first week of a war, oil production from Saudi and UAE (at least 15 million barrels per day) will be lost and no one can make up this. This will be leading to worldwide economic meltdown.
US dollar dies as the world reserve currency, so does world trade.

Iran is not Saddam Hussein. The first Gulf War was a unique event due to monumental stupidity.

The lessons learnt from Iraq and Yugoslavia and if you go back to WW2 is that if you can't hurt the armed forces, you target civilians and bomb them straight to the Stone age.

When NATO bombed Serbia, it was discovered that after one of the largest bombing campaign in history they hit less than 10 % of targets.
They took out their frustration on civilians by bombing schools , hospitals, factories, water and sewage treatment plants and bridges.

This is what convinced the Serbs to surrender.

Iran's known the modus operandum. They will not wait to get bombed back into the Stone age like Iraq, they will make sure they take out the world economy with them.

Jesus.

That the best case, worse case or in between scenario?

 

[dtownreppin214]

This has all the sloppiness of the Saudis. If they get caught, they know Trump will just say "we are looking into it" in perpetuity.

 

[ZoeGod]

Jesus.

That the best case, worse case or in between scenario?

Best case scenario. Worst case scenario:
Not only does Iran fire ballistic missiles at Saudi/Emirati/Kuwaiti oil infrastructure. They also target their water and electrical infrastructure. Iran then activates it’s shia proxies in those countries plunging them into total chaos. Which oil production would cease in those countries permanently. Which means even if the US re-opens the straits of Hormuz oil would stay at $500 a barrel permanently since these countries would collapse and cease to exist.

Hezbollah and Israel go to war with other. But this war will be even more devastating for both Lebanon and Israel. Hezbollah has 100,000 rockets and about 10k ballistic missiles. This means all of Israel will be on the crosshairs of attack. This will disrupt the Israeli economy and lead to more casualties. Israel will then launch a ground invasion into Lebanon but end up fighting a bloody guerrilla war since Hezbollah is battle hardened from Syria and the terrain favors guerrilla warfare. Plus Hezbollah has plenty MANPADS, ATGMs and anti ship missiles to wreak havoc on an invading force. The war becomes a bloody stalemate which doesn’t benefit Israel. You could also see shia proxies in Syria cross into Lebanon to aid Hezbollah to further complicate things. And you may see Hamas open a second front in Gaza to stretch the IDF thin. Israel will be pushed to the brink with high casualties and a long bloody war with no end in sight.

In Iraq you would have shia militias attacking US military bases with their own ballistic missiles. US forces will be under severe pressure in Iraq because they will be basically surrounded and pinned down with supply lines closed off. Iran would fire ballistic missiles at US bases in Iraq as well. The same would occur in Afghanistan.

With war with Iran the war drags on. It would take weeks for an effective bombing campaign to succeed because Iran is so massive. The first target would be to take out the S-300 before anything else. The problem is they are mobile. Secondly US AirPower focusing primarily on taking the S-300 leaves their ballistic missile capabilities untouched for a while which means this give Iran more time to cause more harm. This is the reason why Israel and the US were upset they got the S-300 because it makes war with Iran going from kinda hard to straight up more difficult. And as the war drag on the US will have two choices. De escalate and end hostilities or go full retard and try to invade Iran to remove the regime from power. The US military does not have the manpower to invade or occupy Iran. Iran’s strategy in war with the US is spread the conflict to over stretch the US, bring the global economy down and raise the cost of war so high the US will be forced to stop.

 

[jj23]

Best case scenario. Worst case scenario:
Not only does Iran fire ballistic missiles at Saudi/Emirati/Kuwaiti oil infrastructure. They also target their water and electrical infrastructure. Iran then activates it’s shia proxies in those countries plunging them into total chaos. Which oil production would cease in those countries permanently. Which means even if the US re-opens the straits of Hormuz oil would stay at $500 a barrel permanently since these countries would collapse and cease to exist.

Hezbollah and Israel go to war with other. But this war will be even more devastating for both Lebanon and Israel. Hezbollah has 100,000 rockets and about 10k ballistic missiles. This means all of Israel will be on the crosshairs of attack. This will disrupt the Israeli economy and lead to more casualties. Israel will then launch a ground invasion into Lebanon but end up fighting a bloody guerrilla war since Hezbollah is battle hardened from Syria and the terrain favors guerrilla warfare. Plus Hezbollah has plenty MANPADS, ATGMs and anti ship missiles to wreak havoc on an invading force. The war becomes a bloody stalemate which doesn’t benefit Israel. You could also see shia proxies in Syria cross into Lebanon to aid Hezbollah to further complicate things. And you may see Hamas open a second front in Gaza to stretch the IDF thin. Israel will be pushed to the brink with high casualties and a long bloody war with no end in sight.

In Iraq you would have shia militias attacking US military bases with their own ballistic missiles. US forces will be under severe pressure in Iraq because they will be basically surrounded and pinned down with supply lines closed off. Iran would fire ballistic missiles at US bases in Iraq as well. The same would occur in Afghanistan.

With war with Iran the war drags on. It would take weeks for an effective bombing campaign to succeed because Iran is so massive. The first target would be to take out the S-300 before anything else. The problem is they are mobile. Secondly US AirPower focusing primarily on taking the S-300 leaves their ballistic missile capabilities untouched for a while which means this give Iran more time to cause more harm. This is the reason why Israel and the US were upset they got the S-300 because it makes war with Iran going from kinda hard to straight up more difficult. And as the war drag on the US will have two choices. De escalate and end hostilities or go full retard and try to invade Iran to remove the regime from power. The US military does not have the manpower to invade or occupy Iran. Iran’s strategy in war with the US is spread the conflict to over stretch the US, bring the global economy down and raise the cost of war so high the US will be forced to stop.

Q

 

[mastermind]

Best case scenario. Worst case scenario:
Not only does Iran fire ballistic missiles at Saudi/Emirati/Kuwaiti oil infrastructure. They also target their water and electrical infrastructure. Iran then activates it’s shia proxies in those countries plunging them into total chaos. Which oil production would cease in those countries permanently. Which means even if the US re-opens the straits of Hormuz oil would stay at $500 a barrel permanently since these countries would collapse and cease to exist.

Hezbollah and Israel go to war with other. But this war will be even more devastating for both Lebanon and Israel. Hezbollah has 100,000 rockets and about 10k ballistic missiles. This means all of Israel will be on the crosshairs of attack. This will disrupt the Israeli economy and lead to more casualties. Israel will then launch a ground invasion into Lebanon but end up fighting a bloody guerrilla war since Hezbollah is battle hardened from Syria and the terrain favors guerrilla warfare. Plus Hezbollah has plenty MANPADS, ATGMs and anti ship missiles to wreak havoc on an invading force. The war becomes a bloody stalemate which doesn’t benefit Israel. You could also see shia proxies in Syria cross into Lebanon to aid Hezbollah to further complicate things. And you may see Hamas open a second front in Gaza to stretch the IDF thin. Israel will be pushed to the brink with high casualties and a long bloody war with no end in sight.

In Iraq you would have shia militias attacking US military bases with their own ballistic missiles. US forces will be under severe pressure in Iraq because they will be basically surrounded and pinned down with supply lines closed off. Iran would fire ballistic missiles at US bases in Iraq as well. The same would occur in Afghanistan.

With war with Iran the war drags on. It would take weeks for an effective bombing campaign to succeed because Iran is so massive. The first target would be to take out the S-300 before anything else. The problem is they are mobile. Secondly US AirPower focusing primarily on taking the S-300 leaves their ballistic missile capabilities untouched for a while which means this give Iran more time to cause more harm. This is the reason why Israel and the US were upset they got the S-300 because it makes war with Iran going from kinda hard to straight up more difficult. And as the war drag on the US will have two choices. De escalate and end hostilities or go full retard and try to invade Iran to remove the regime from power. The US military does not have the manpower to invade or occupy Iran. Iran’s strategy in war with the US is spread the conflict to over stretch the US, bring the global economy down and raise the cost of war so high the US will be forced to stop.

Meanwhile the US war machine in government and media is pushing this.

 

[Red Shield]

Best case scenario. Worst case scenario:
Not only does Iran fire ballistic missiles at Saudi/Emirati/Kuwaiti oil infrastructure. They also target their water and electrical infrastructure. Iran then activates it’s shia proxies in those countries plunging them into total chaos. Which oil production would cease in those countries permanently. Which means even if the US re-opens the straits of Hormuz oil would stay at $500 a barrel permanently since these countries would collapse and cease to exist.

Hezbollah and Israel go to war with other. But this war will be even more devastating for both Lebanon and Israel. Hezbollah has 100,000 rockets and about 10k ballistic missiles. This means all of Israel will be on the crosshairs of attack. This will disrupt the Israeli economy and lead to more casualties. Israel will then launch a ground invasion into Lebanon but end up fighting a bloody guerrilla war since Hezbollah is battle hardened from Syria and the terrain favors guerrilla warfare. Plus Hezbollah has plenty MANPADS, ATGMs and anti ship missiles to wreak havoc on an invading force. The war becomes a bloody stalemate which doesn’t benefit Israel. You could also see shia proxies in Syria cross into Lebanon to aid Hezbollah to further complicate things. And you may see Hamas open a second front in Gaza to stretch the IDF thin. Israel will be pushed to the brink with high casualties and a long bloody war with no end in sight.

In Iraq you would have shia militias attacking US military bases with their own ballistic missiles. US forces will be under severe pressure in Iraq because they will be basically surrounded and pinned down with supply lines closed off. Iran would fire ballistic missiles at US bases in Iraq as well. The same would occur in Afghanistan.

With war with Iran the war drags on. It would take weeks for an effective bombing campaign to succeed because Iran is so massive. The first target would be to take out the S-300 before anything else. The problem is they are mobile. Secondly US AirPower focusing primarily on taking the S-300 leaves their ballistic missile capabilities untouched for a while which means this give Iran more time to cause more harm. This is the reason why Israel and the US were upset they got the S-300 because it makes war with Iran going from kinda hard to straight up more difficult. And as the war drag on the US will have two choices. De escalate and end hostilities or go full retard and try to invade Iran to remove the regime from power. The US military does not have the manpower to invade or occupy Iran. Iran’s strategy in war with the US is spread the conflict to over stretch the US, bring the global economy down and raise the cost of war so high the US will be forced to stop.

god damn..

Yeah. I always figured if those Saudi/SA allies get their oil infrastructure hit. Then those water desalination plants are gonna get wiped out too...




Scary thing...thinking about it even more... I don't even think this would be the worst case scenario. Because there are gonna be the non-middle eastern/usa countries getting involved

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

Podcast originally recorded July 24, 2018: Trump and the DC War Party rolled out their big blustery marketing campaign for an Iran War. Are they bluffing, or are they just clinically insane?—the eternal question about Washington "experts"... In this episode, the War Nerd considers different war scenarios, and takes a rare look (for RWN) at how the two nations' hardware affects their strategies. Everyone and their dog knows what a total disaster this war would be—and the US just may be stupid enough to do it.


@88m3 @dtownreppin214

 

[newworldafro]

 

[afterlife2009]

#theResistance

 

[Pressure]

The administration aren't honest brokers and they're largely despised by our allies.

There will be no coalition building

 

[newarkhiphop]

 

[newarkhiphop]

Best case scenario. Worst case scenario:
Not only does Iran fire ballistic missiles at Saudi/Emirati/Kuwaiti oil infrastructure. They also target their water and electrical infrastructure. Iran then activates it’s shia proxies in those countries plunging them into total chaos. Which oil production would cease in those countries permanently. Which means even if the US re-opens the straits of Hormuz oil would stay at $500 a barrel permanently since these countries would collapse and cease to exist.

Hezbollah and Israel go to war with other. But this war will be even more devastating for both Lebanon and Israel. Hezbollah has 100,000 rockets and about 10k ballistic missiles. This means all of Israel will be on the crosshairs of attack. This will disrupt the Israeli economy and lead to more casualties. Israel will then launch a ground invasion into Lebanon but end up fighting a bloody guerrilla war since Hezbollah is battle hardened from Syria and the terrain favors guerrilla warfare. Plus Hezbollah has plenty MANPADS, ATGMs and anti ship missiles to wreak havoc on an invading force. The war becomes a bloody stalemate which doesn’t benefit Israel. You could also see shia proxies in Syria cross into Lebanon to aid Hezbollah to further complicate things. And you may see Hamas open a second front in Gaza to stretch the IDF thin. Israel will be pushed to the brink with high casualties and a long bloody war with no end in sight.

In Iraq you would have shia militias attacking US military bases with their own ballistic missiles. US forces will be under severe pressure in Iraq because they will be basically surrounded and pinned down with supply lines closed off. Iran would fire ballistic missiles at US bases in Iraq as well. The same would occur in Afghanistan.

With war with Iran the war drags on. It would take weeks for an effective bombing campaign to succeed because Iran is so massive. The first target would be to take out the S-300 before anything else. The problem is they are mobile. Secondly US AirPower focusing primarily on taking the S-300 leaves their ballistic missile capabilities untouched for a while which means this give Iran more time to cause more harm. This is the reason why Israel and the US were upset they got the S-300 because it makes war with Iran going from kinda hard to straight up more difficult. And as the war drag on the US will have two choices. De escalate and end hostilities or go full retard and try to invade Iran to remove the regime from power. The US military does not have the manpower to invade or occupy Iran. Iran’s strategy in war with the US is spread the conflict to over stretch the US, bring the global economy down and raise the cost of war so high the US will be forced to stop.

 

[FAH1223]

Q

god damn..

Yeah. I always figured if those Saudi/SA allies get their oil infrastructure hit. Then those water desalination plants are gonna get wiped out too...




Scary thing...thinking about it even more... I don't even think this would be the worst case scenario. Because there are gonna be the non-middle eastern/usa countries getting involved

Meanwhile the US war machine in government and media is pushing this.

#theResistance

The media and politicians think Iran = Iraq. The snapback of sanctions doesn't affect the IRGC or Iranian defense capabilities, it is its civil society, its middle and lower classes who bear the brunt of them. So much for "freeing the Iranian" people.

And people like Adam Schiff, a Dem who voted for the Iraq War, will be so inclined to believe this administration rather than looking in the mirror and looking at the facts.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

1. I don't war with Iran
2. If Iran pursue's nukes, war must be an option