Best All-Star teams by peak value
A few weeks ago, I used
my wins above replacement player (WARP) rating to
rank NBA teams if every player were in their prime. That same concept can be used to rank All-Star teams and provide one answer to the question of which one has boasted the best collection of talent, at least since 1978 when full player stats were first tracked.
The method is simple. Each player's score is based on the best season of his career by WARP -- including projections for the remainder of this season -- and only players who actually were on the roster in that game count (so no Kobe Bryant for the current West squad). Here are the top 10 teams, which have a decidedly Western slant.
10. 2004 West (221.5)
As we saw when we looked at prime value rankings for this season's NBA teams, Andrei Kirilenko's 2003-04 season (19.9 WARP) is one of the great unrepeated performances of all time. Since it was his only All-Star appearance, the 2004 Western Conference roster gets the benefit. Kirilenko was one of eight West players with at least 17 WARP in a season. The others -- Ray Allen (17.8), Kobe Bryant (20.4), Tim Duncan (23.4), Steve Francis (18.0), Kevin Garnett (26.3), Dirk Nowitzki (19.7) and Shaquille O'Neal (25.7) -- are a bit more predictable.
9. 2005 West (221.7)
Obviously, a similar group but the Francis-Tracy McGrady (23.5) swap and the emergence of the Suns' trio of Shawn Marion (19.2), Steve Nash (17.8) and Amar'e Stoudemire (16.0) gives 2005 the slight edge.
8. 2002 West (223.2)
Karl Malone (20.5) did not play due to injury, but wasn't replaced on the roster, so he still counts as one of six MVPs on the roster along with Bryant, Duncan, Garnett, Nash and Nowitzki. As a result, the 2002 West roster was still elite despite the presence of Wally Szczerbiak (5.8 peak WARP), one of the weakest All-Star selections.
7. 2006 West (224.3)
Incremental upgrades with the addition of first-time All-Star Pau Gasol (15.9) and a second appearance for the perpetually underrated Elton Brand (18.9).
6. 2001 West (225.4)
The last appearance by David Robinson (27.3) boosts the 2001 West team ahead of its successors. Robinson was one of seven players on the roster with a prime season of at least 20 WARP, along with Bryant, Duncan, Garnett, Malone, Jason Kidd (21.2) and Gary Payton (20.0).
5. 1996 West (227.8)
All-Star coach George Karl had his choice of Hall of Famers throughout the 1996 game. Seven players from the roster -- Malone, Payton, Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon (24.8), Charles Barkley (23.1), John Stockton (22.5) and Clyde Drexler (18.5) -- have already been inducted to the Hall, with Kidd a lock to join them and Dikembe Mutombo (14.1) and 2014 finalist Mitch Richmond (12.9) candidates in their own right.
4. 1992 West (229.2)
The 1992 West roster finishes this high on a technicality. Because fans voted Magic Johnson a starter after his retirement due to HIV, the West had 13 players on the roster. If we take out Magic (23.8), the 1992 West slips all the way to 25th. But Johnson did take the court, memorably winning MVP, and the roster included seven other Hall of Famers.
3. 2003 West (232.0)
Because so many West teams in the early 2000s appear on this list, a single player can make a difference. In this case, 2003 wins out because of Payton's final All-Star appearance. This was also an unusually deep roster where 11 of 12 players reached at least 14 WARP at prime, with Yao Ming (11.3) the lone exception.
2. 1998 West (233.0)
The original great West roster was put together in 1998, when Duncan made his first of 14 All-Star appearances, giving the conference six MVPs in the last All-Star Game before the lockout.
1. 2000 West (248.7)
By the time the All-Star Game returned after a one-year absence due to the lockout, the West was stacked beyond any other roster in All-Star history. In fact, the difference in prime value between the 2000 West team and its 1998 counterpart is larger than the difference between 1998 and the 13th team on this list. The 2000 team is also tops on the list of combined All-Star appearances, with 124. (The top three by this criteria match the WARP list.) The big addition for the West was Chris Webber (18.1) replacing Mitch Richmond (12.9), along with Stockton returning to the All-Star Game after missing it in 1998 due to microfracture knee surgery. The result was the most talented roster in All-Star history.
The best East team: 1990 (217.4)
So, if the top 10 teams were all from the West, which was the best East squad? That honor goes to the 1990 team, which was led by Michael Jordan (27.6), Charles Barkley (23.1) and Larry Bird (22.3). The 1990 East team ranks seventh with 105 combined All-Star appearances, but 13th by WARP.
The best '80s team: 1988 East (213.1)
No 1980s team cracks the top 16. A smaller league meant WARP was less concentrated among the top players in the '80s, putting those teams at something of a disadvantage. The 1988 East team checks in at No. 17. In addition to the aforementioned Jordan-Barkley-Bird trio, the 1988 East team featured eight Hall of Famers, but not quite as much elite depth as the best West squads.
The worst modern team: 2001 East (158.0)
The worst teams in the rankings are all from the 1970s, for an obvious reason. Aging players like John Havlicek don't get full credit for their performances before the WARP era. Taking them out, the lowest-ranking team is the 2001 East, which featured players who combined for just 46 other All-Star appearances. The roster was weakened because Grant Hill (21.1) and Alonzo Mourning (19.1) sat out with injuries and were replaced by Antonio Davis (5.0) and Anthony Mason (10.2). Yet the East still outscored the West 41-21 in the fourth quarter to pull off the unlikely upset.
Deepest team: 2011 West
Believe it or not, Carmelo Anthony (13.0 WARP) scores as the worst prime player on the 2011 roster. He still rated better than nearly half the East roster that year. The next best "worst" player is Mark Jackson (11.8) on the 1989 East.
The best combined game: 1996 (436.2)
In terms of total star power, nothing surpasses the 1996 game in San Antonio, which featured the No. 5 overall roster above and one of the 10 best East squads in that span. Of the great '90s players, 1996 was the only year where nobody was absent due to injury or retirement. The only downside was
the horrendous teal-heavy jerseys.
This year's teams: West 201.4, East 158.4
Right now, this year's West roster ranks 17th. That will only go up as the West players who haven't yet reached their prime -- most notably Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard -- continue to improve their best WARP score. By contrast, the East squad ranks ahead of only the 2001 East among post-1980 teams. While that figure, too, will improve, this year's East roster isn't nearly as star-studded as previous incarnations that featured Garnett.
COMPLETE ALL-STAR ROSTER RANKINGS
YearConferenceWARPAll-Stars
2000West248.7124
1998West233.0117
2003West232.0109
1992West229.298
1996West227.8108
2001West225.4101
2006West224.3106
2002West223.2102
2005West221.7104
2004West221.5100
2011West219.480
1990East217.4105
1993West217.387
1995West216.396
2005East214.288
1988East213.199
2011East212.094
1994West211.787
1989East211.691
2002East209.989
2006East209.192
1996East208.480
2009West208.498
2007West208.299
1987East205.2107
2013West203.572
2014West201.453
1993East201.191
2012West200.869
2010East200.781
1990West200.680
2009East199.986
2010West199.977
1991West199.484
1986East198.7100
1986West197.997
2008West197.196
2007East196.786
2008East196.288
1985East196.194
1997West195.784
1988West194.593
1997East194.366
2003East194.178
1995East192.170
1985West190.087
1992East189.475
2012East185.669
1994East182.653
1998East182.358
1982West181.287
1991East180.182
1989West178.093
1983East177.381
1987West176.981
1982East174.782
1984West173.479
2013East172.462
2004East171.462
1983West171.378
2000East167.866
1984East159.174
2014East158.454
2001East158.058
1980West154.171
1980East152.574
1979West146.068
1981East145.762
1981West141.378
1978East130.980
1978West124.050
1979East120.170