Super Tuesday Primary: Biden wins 9 of 14 states; leads delegate count 637 to 559

[the cac mamba]

wow

 

[FAH1223]

Bernie marching rallies to the polls

 

[Cheddar Biscuits]

Warren backtracked on her SuperPAC talking points and took 9 million in dark money just to flood Super Tuesday with ads and still lose her home state.

 

[FAH1223]

 

[FAH1223]

CNN polls: Bernie Sanders holds big leads in California and Texas ahead of critical Super Tuesday vote

(CNN) - Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders holds substantial leads in the two largest states to vote in next week's Super Tuesday lineup of primaries, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS in California and Texas.

In Texas, Sanders holds 29% support among likely primary voters, former Vice President Joe Biden has 20%, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg stands at 18% and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is at 15%. No other candidate reaches double-digits. Sanders (+14) and Bloomberg (+13) have posted the largest gains since a December CNN poll, while Biden has slipped 15 points. Warren has held roughly even.

The California results suggest the same four contenders hold the most support, though Sanders stands well ahead of the three contending for second place. Sanders holds 35% support, Warren is at 14%, Biden is at 13% and Bloomberg is at 12%. Sanders' support in the state has climbed 15 points since December, while Biden's has slid eight points. Bloomberg has gained seven.

Decisive wins for a single candidate in California and Texas -- states which will award more than 600 of the 1,991 delegates needed to secure the Democratic nomination -- could change the tenor of a race that has at times seemed headed for a protracted fight.

The December polls in the two delegate-rich states had shown Biden ahead in Texas with Biden, Sanders and Warren all vying for a win in California. Since then, most national polling has also shown Sanders taking hold of the frontrunner slot in the Democratic nomination battle, while his win in the Nevada caucuses boosted him to a lead over his rivals in the delegate count so far.

Despite early strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is not breaking through in either of these states, holding just 7% in California and 8% in Texas. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and businessman Tom Steyer likewise remain mired in the low single digits.

Sanders' strong showing in each state is bolstered by the core groups that have fueled his candidacy throughout the campaign -- he holds wide margins among men, voters under age 45 and among those who consider themselves liberal. He is also boosted in these two states by their large Latino populations: Among California Latinos, he stands at 50%, and in Texas, his 36% support among Latinos puts him 15 points ahead of Biden.

Beyond Sanders' overall support, he stands well ahead of the rest of the field in both states as best able to handle health care, the climate crisis, race relations and immigration. The one issue where voters appear conflicted over Sanders' abilities appears to be the economy.

Bloomberg, the billionaire late entry to the Democratic nomination contest, has swiftly climbed in voters' esteem as best able to handle the nation's economy. While 10% in Texas and 9% in California named him as most trusted on the economy in December, those figures have now more than doubled. In Texas, 26% call him best on the economy, about even with Sanders' 25% and in California, 21% name him, within the margin of error of Sanders' 26% share.

In both states, likely Democratic primary voters say it is more important for the Democratic Party to nominate a candidate with a strong chance of beating Trump (61% in California and 60% in Texas say so). Sanders leads among these voters in California (28% back Sanders, 18% Biden, 15% Warren, 13% Bloomberg), but in Texas, he lags behind Biden among these general-election focused voters (25% Biden, 20% Bloomberg, 18% Sanders, 17% Warren).

But the polls suggest Sanders is well ahead of the rest of the pack when it comes to inspiring enthusiasm among the Democratic electorate. Nearly half in California (47%) and about four in 10 in Texas (42%) say they would be enthusiastic about his candidacy were he to become the nominee. None of the other five candidates tested comes within 10 points of those marks. Thirty-one percent say they would be enthusiastic about a Warren nomination in each state. Biden inspires more enthusiasm in Texas (29%) than California (22%), but enthusiasm about him as the nominee has taken a sharp dip since December in both states (down 13 points in California and 15 points in Texas).

Bloomberg is also more of a boon to enthusiasm in Texas (24%) than California (18%), but in both states, he is the candidate most apt to prompt likely primary voters to say they would be "upset" should he win the nomination (24% in California and 22% in Texas).

Looking ahead to November, each of the six potential Democratic nominees tested in California easily tops Trump in a hypothetical matchup among registered voters. And all six run about even with Trump in Texas, a state Democrats have long hoped would flip to their column in the electoral college.

The president's approval rating stands at 33% in California, according to the poll, and 43% in Texas.

The CNN Polls in California and Texas were conducted by telephone among random samples of adults in each state. In California, results among the 1,197 adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points; it is 5.2 points for results among the 488 likely Democratic primary voters. In Texas, results among 1,200 adults carry an error margin of 3.4 percentage points, while those among the 387 likely Democratic primary voters have an error margin of 6.0 points.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

if bloomberg's polling #'s hold anywhere near true when ballots are actually cast, i'll concede we may definitely be heading into a brokered convention

i'm actually pulling for a biden win in SC because of this

 

[FAH1223]

if bloomberg's polling #'s hold anywhere near true when ballots are actually cast, i'll concede we may definitely be heading into a brokered convention

i'm actually pulling for a biden win in SC because of this

I think the longer Biden stays in the race, worse it is for Bloomberg. Ironically helps Bernie.

Bernie sorta is fine either way since a plurality of Biden voters have Bernie as their 2nd choice so Bloomberg wouldn't have a monopoly on that support should Biden crash and burn tomorrow.

 

[Robbie3000]

Looks like Biden is rising in Texas, VIrginia and NC. 538 predicts he will get a slight edge over Bernie in those states and other southern states.

The good news for Bern Da Gawd is the states he is winning, he is winning big over Biden. Cali, Mass, Washington etc.

I’m still confident Bern will have more delegates than both Biden and Bloomberg combined after Super Tuesday.

Bloomberg came aboard to tank Bernie and he is only taking delegates from Biden.

 

[nyknick]

Looks like Biden is rising in Texas, VIrginia and NC. 538 predicts he will get a slight edge over Bernie in those states and other southern states.

The good news for Bern Da Gawd is the states he is winning, he is winning big over Biden. Cali, Mass, Washington etc.

I’m still confident Bern will have more delegates than both Biden and Bloomberg combined after Super Tuesday.

Bloomberg came aboard to tank Bernie and he is only taking delegates from Biden.

And that's gonna go up even more after he wins SC. Silver lining is that Biden doesn't have any money in Super Tuesday states.

 

[Robbie3000]

And that's gonna go up even more after he wins SC. Silver lining is that Biden doesn't have any money in Super Tuesday states.

His margins are so slim against Bernie in states he is expected to win that his net gain might not even be able to offset Bernie’s delegate lead so far.

It’s a wash for Biden Even though he might actually “win” more states on Super Tuesday.

When the Westsiiiide comes through for Bern, it’s a wrap. The entire establishment will have to Bow Down.

 

[re'up]

Still not sure who the most practical choice to vote for on Tuesday is, I'm in San Diego, so I have leeway to "vote my heart", or who the eventual nominee will be, which may be the same. I don't want to vote for someone who probably won't be the nominee, I think the right choice is probably Bernie all the way around. Could go Warren or Biden too, Biden's sink or swim is probably in the next 5 days.

 

[FAH1223]

 

[OfTheCross]

Spoke to an older lady today...60+

she told me her nephew was on the Sanders team. i told her I was too.

She was skeptical because she wanted to know how was was going to do everything and said her taxes were gonna go up.

 

[FAH1223]

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

Why is Gabbard still in the race?