The 2019 MLB Random Thoughts Thread

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Continued:

In February 2018, Hahn stepped on the mound in spring training in Surprise, Ariz., ready to make his Royals debut.

At the time, his arm felt great. The Athletics had traded him to the Royals nearly a month prior after Hahn had struggled to stay healthy, but that day Hahn threw three innings and “felt fine.” The 28-year-old walked off the mound feeling like the pitcher he was while emerging as a rookie in 2014 with the San Diego Padres, then pitching well in 16 starts for the A’s the following season.

In his next start, he felt fine at first, but after two innings, he did not. His elbow was hurting in the same way it had in 2010.

“I didn’t know how serious this injury actually was,” Hahn says.

But he knew he had to leave the game.

He underwent MRIs in the following days, but the images did not reveal much. The prescription was rest, so that’s what Hahn did. Months later, he began throwing again. And when he did, similar to the beginning of spring training, his arm felt fine.

By July, he was ready to pitch again. He had two outings in the Arizona Rookie League and didn’t give up a run, so the Royals transferred him to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, where Hahn made three more outings and still didn’t give up a run. Triple-A Omaha was the next stop. Hahn knew he was close.

On Aug. 7, 2018, at Werner Park in Papillion, Neb., Hahn arrived at the mound to pitch for the Omaha Storm Chasers. He struck out the first two batters then gave up a single. The coaches pulled him after he reached his pitch count, and the outing was considered a success.

But not to Hahn. His elbow was hurting again.

After the game, Hahn immediately called Royals head athletic trainer Nick Kenney.

“Hey Nick, I don’t think I’m going to be able to throw a baseball anytime soon,’” Hahn said to Kenney. “This kinda took a turn for the worse. I think I’m going to have to shut it down.”

Kenney, not having seen any MRIs, trusted Hahn’s judgement. But because the pitcher was in Omaha, Kenney recommended Hahn drive the three hours to Kansas City for further evaluation with Dr. Vincent Key. A day later, he underwent the MRIs that Paletta later would see.

“We just knew it wasn’t functioning right,” Hahn says. “Something was obviously wrong.”

In conversations with Kenney and Key, Hahn considered his options. He had already undergone one Tommy John surgery, so he knew it would require about 17 months of rehab. Not only did he love the game too much to quit, but he also knew those at home, such as his sister Melissa, were cheering him on to return.

It was then that he remembered conversations he had had with Maness about a procedure Maness had undergone. The Royals knew Paletta had performed that procedure and Hahn wanted to see if it was an option for him. So he drove to St. Louis, spoke with Paletta and signed the waiver.

“I was just going to accept it,” said Hahn, who gave Paletta permission to speak to The Athletic about the details of the surgery. “No matter what the surgery was, I was very confident I would overcome (it) and be out there pitching again. It was just a matter of what date it was going to be.”

Hahn woke up in a daze. His wife, Jessica, stood over him.

“Check your leg,” she said.

Hahn felt down with his left hand and noticed his leg felt normal. This was significant. It meant Paletta did not have to take a graft from there to do a full reconstruction. Semi-realizing the situation, Jesse smiled.

“Yeah,” Jessica said. “You had the repair.”

The Hahns stayed in St. Louis for a couple days so Jesse could recover and relax. Then they returned to Arizona with a couple specific requests from Paletta. For the first eight weeks, Hahn was to let his arm rest, quite similar to Tommy John rehab, then he would begin the strengthening phase. Where the rehab really differed was 4 1/2 months into the process.

That’s when the long-toss program would begin. The program would last for six weeks, then Hahn would throw from the mound for six weeks. At that point, he could be back pitching again.

Some of the process went as planned after Hahn returned to Arizona; some of it did not.

Every morning during rehab, Hahn would wake up and walk to the coffeemaker in the kitchen. Above it hung a message board, and each day Jessica put together a new quote.

“That would motivate me for that day,” Jesse says, “and keep me positive. It went a long way. One of the things that goes unnoticed in the rehab process is the mental side of it. Believing, trusting, staying positive … it’s a grind. The messages really went a long way.”

IMG_7690.jpg


About five months into the recovery, Hahn was back throwing and right on schedule. Until he wasn’t.

“The problem in Jesse’s case,” Paletta says, “is he had complications with nerve issues. That slowed his recovery. That’s a complicating factor that may make the return time seem longer than if it was just the repair. … Nerves recover at a much slower pace than most other soft tissues in the body. The expectation is that the nerve will recover fully. Jesse came into the surgery with the nerve issues, and those nerve issues are not immediately or easily cured by the surgery.”

Still, Jesse pushed through because that’s what he had done his whole life. And the Royals, who had placed him on the 60-day injured list, stuck with him. At long last, on Aug. 21, just shy of a full year since the surgery, Jesse took the mound in competitive competition for the first time. He pitched an inning of rookie ball and emerged unscathed, with two strikeouts on nine pitches.

“The feeling, it sounds cliche’, but I couldn’t describe it,” Hahn says. “After I walked off the mound that night, I was all smiles. I couldn’t stop smiling the entire night. I couldn’t wait to move forward and go on to the next one.”

Over the years, Dugas says he has received a number of questions from baseball executives — including well-known general managers — about the primary repair with internal brace procedure and which players qualify.

“I honestly don’t think it makes any difference what level of player you are,” Dugas says. “I don’t think it matters how hard you throw. That has nothing to do with it. It has to do with what your injury is.”

Since 2017, the procedure has become more recognized. Paletta says he has done nearly 150 of them in total.

After rejoining the Royals on Tuesday, Hahn now has the chance to re-establish himself in the majors after having undergone the new procedure.




Kansas City Royals

✔@Royals

RHP Jesse Hahn has been returned from his rehab assignment and reinstated from the 60-day IL. #Royals

“When you’re dealing with a professional athlete,” Paletta says, “it’s on a more magnified stage. I don’t read about my high school or college kids. But with guys like Jesse, it’s right there in front of you. These guys are pitching at the highest level.

“If you can get them back to that, it’s gratifying and rewarding.”

Jesse told his story one late-August morning. He’d pitched well a few days prior at High-A Wilmington, striking out all three batters he faced with a flaming fastball, deceptive changeup and hard slider.

Jesse is now 30 years old, and he still dreams of pitching in the playoffs and the World Series, things he has not done yet.

Those dreams and his love of the game are what pushed him to sign the waiver to allow Paletta to perform the Tommy John alternative. Not to mention the support from those back home. His father and mother. His sister Melissa, who has followed every game since he’s been back.

“I love the game, and I have zero quit,” Hahn says, “But I believe this is bigger than me.”

(Top photo: Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
 

god shamgod

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Can't stand watching quintana pitch he nibble nibbles nibbles like a scary hoe 101 pitches thru 5 :why:

will always appreciate 2016 but I lost faith in theo dude fell off, the cubs had a deep farm in 2015/2016 and he botched it this dude overpaid for this bum and traded away dj lemahiu torres,soler and vogelbach who all have thrived soler got 40 hr's :snoop: yet he kept almora,schwarber fat adam dunn 2.0 sorry ass and happ who can't make contact to save his life

baez & contreras are the cubs best offensive & defensive players and both were drafted/signed by the cubs old gm jim hendry
 

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That White Sox lineup in a year or two when Robert Madrigal and Vaughn are up :wow:

If they can get any decent pitching they’re gonna be impossible
 

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Why Mike Minor is ahead of Justin Verlander and other shocking WAR battles

Why Mike Minor is ahead of Justin Verlander and other shocking WAR battles
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
6:53 AM PT
  • i

    David SchoenfieldESPN Senior Writer

Mike Minor starts Saturday for the Rangers against the Orioles and with a good outing -- a strong possibility given the opponent -- Minor could move into the lead for the best individual pitching season in Rangers history, at least via Baseball-Reference WAR.

I've been slightly obsessed with Minor's WAR for most of the season, ever since he got off to a hot start and then peaked with a complete game on June 26 to lower his ERA to 2.40. By that time, he had established a clear chance to post the highest WAR ever for a Rangers pitcher. He's slowed down a bit since then, but enters this game at 12-8 with a 3.12 ERA. You may be thinking: Sure, that's a nice season, but the best in Rangers history? What about Nolan Ryan or ... umm ... OK, the Rangers don't exactly have a storied legacy of stellar starting pitching. No Rangers pitcher has won a Cy Young Award. The best finisher was Fergie Jenkins, who finished second in 1974. That also ranks -- for now -- as the best season in Rangers history:

Jenkins, 1974: 25-12, 2.82 ERA, 328.1 IP, 29 CG, 7.7 WAR

Minor, 2019: 12-8, 3.12 ERA, 181.2 IP, 2 CG, 7.6 WAR

Now, 1974 is a long ways from 2019, so Jenkins' numbers look ridiculously crazy compared to Minor's. Twenty-nine complete games! Alas, this article isn't about Mike Minor and Fergie Jenkins, but rather that my obsession with Minor's WAR has meant I've seen his name atop the WAR leaderboard most of the season. So this article is about how Minor's Baseball-Reference WAR could possibly be better than Justin Verlander's (and every other pitcher in the sport).

But why stop there? Let's look at a few of the other weirdest and most surprising WAR totals of the season (we're sticking to B-R WAR throughout, with all totals and stats through Wednesday's games).

Case No. 1: Mike Minor (7.6 WAR) versus Justin Verlander (6.7)
Quick timeout. You can skip the next few paragraphs if you know about WAR and just want to get to the fun stuff. WAR has become a mainstream statistic over the past few years -- the Mike Trout versus Miguel Cabrera debates from 2012 and 2013 almost feel like another era. Its usage has advanced beyond the provenance of sabermetric writers (and front offices) as most national and beat writers now reference WAR on a regular basis. MLB Network and ESPN cite it as a routine part of their various shows. Local game broadcasts aren't quite as deep into the mud, but we're seeing or hearing WAR mentioned more often, which means the casual fan who isn't watching Brian Kenny every afternoon is getting more exposure to it.

So, to that fan in particular, this may not compute:

Minor: 12-8, 3.12 ERA, 181.1 IP, 158 H, 58 BB, 180 SO, 7.6 WAR

Verlander: 17-5, 2.56 ERA, 193 IP, 114 H, 35 BB, 257 SO, 6.7 WAR

Verlander leads in every category ... except the one that says Minor is better. For the uninitiated, WAR stands for wins above replacement. The basic framework involves comparing a player to the average player and then the average player to the replacement-level player ... for ease of understanding, think of most players on the Tigers as a replacement-level player. As the Baseball-Reference site explains, "There is no one way to determine WAR. There are hundreds of steps to make this calculation, and dozens of places where reasonable people can disagree on the best way to implement a particular part of the framework."

Anyway, let's get to Minor and Verlander, with a short-and-dirty explanation, not the hundreds of steps part. In evaluating pitchers, there are five primary components to Baseball-Reference WAR: (1) How many runs has he allowed? (2) How much has he pitched? (3) Where has he pitched? (4) How much has his defense hurt or helped him? (5) What opposing lineups has he faced?


MLB Stock Watch: Players adding most and least value on all 30 teams
Minor has allowed 3.27 runs per nine innings, Verlander 2.66. Park effects help Minor. Baseball-Reference uses three-year park effects and Globe Life Park is a good hitters' park -- a park factor of 111, meaning it boosts offense 11%. Minute Maid, contrary to popular belief, is actually a slight pitchers' park. Including road games, Minor ends up with a park factor of 109.8 and Verlander 98.7. Minor has faced slightly tougher lineups -- his opponents' average runs scored per nine innings is 5.06 and Verlander 4.94. Basically, Minor has had to face the Astros four times while Verlander has had the good fortune of not having to face his own teammates.

The final category is team defense. You should understand: Defensive evaluation is still controversial! Baseball-Reference uses defensive runs saved, calculated by Sports Info Solutions. According to DRS, the Rangers have been a bad defensive team and the Astros a very good one, with the Rangers' D costing Minor 0.24 runs per nine innings and the Astros' D saving Verlander to 0.24 runs per nine.

So the difference in defense alone is worth almost half run per game in favor of Minor. Going back to each pitcher's runs allowed per game, that would lower Minor's total to 3.03 and raise Verlander's to 2.90. From there, the park effects and quality of opposition increases Minor's value and he ends up credited with 55 runs saved above an average pitcher and Verlander 46 runs above average. Those figures are then translated to the above WAR numbers.

Is this reasonable? Certainly, especially if you accept the defensive numbers. On the other hand, Verlander has certainly been more dominant: Many fewer hits allowed and many more strikeouts. Baseball-Reference spits it all out and says Minor has been the best pitcher in baseball this year.

P.S. FanGraphs WAR, which uses a different philosophy in rating pitchers, says Verlander has been better. But it also says Lance Lynn -- Minor's teammate -- has been better than Verlander and rates as the best pitcher in the American League.

Let's move on.

Case No. 2: Ketel Marte (6.6) versus Christian Yelich (6.4)
Cody Bellinger versus Christian Yelich, Christian Yelich versus Cody Bellinger. The NL MVP race has been a two-man battle all season after both players had monster Aprils. If there's a third wheel in the discussion, maybe it's Anthony Rendon. Yet ... there's Ketel Marte, the Arizona Diamondbacks' center fielder/second baseman who hit one home run for the Mariners in 437 at-bats in 2016, surging pass Yelich into second place on the National League WAR leaderboard. It's a wonderful thing, this baseball season we're living in. Their stats:

Marte: .328/.387/.591, .978 OPS, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 92 runs

Yelich: .326/.422/.672, 1.093 OPS, 43 HR, 93 RBI, 96 runs

Yelich's OPS is more than 100 points higher, he has more home runs, he's even stolen 26 bases (in 28 attempts) to nine for Marte. How can Marte be better? (Keep in mind that small differences in WAR are meaningless, so don't get too worked up ever two-tenths of a win. Still, nobody is putting Marte in the Bellinger/Yelich MVP discussion.)

For position players, WAR evaluates a player's offensive production, baserunning and defensive value. There is also a position adjustment to consider. Playing shortstop or center field is more difficult than first base, so WAR accounts for that. Keep in mind as well that WAR is a cumulative statistic, so more playing time helps. Marte has had 27 more plate appearances than Yelich, a minor factor in his favor.

For offensive value, Baseball-Reference determines how many runs a player has created compared to an average hitter and then makes a park adjustment. Clutch hitting is not considered (maybe one of the most controversial aspects of WAR). A home run against the Orioles counts the same as a home run against the Dodgers.

Yelich is credited with 51 runs above average (including park effects) to 35 for Marte. On defense, Marte has plus-9 DRS while Yelich is at minus-1. That makes it 50 runs for Yelich and 44 for Marte. Yelich gets plus-5 runs for his baserunning (includes base stealing and advancement on the bases) and Marte plus-2. Hitting into double plays is a bad thing, so that's another category. Both players are plus-1 run there, so Yelich leads, 56 runs above average to 47.

David Schoenfield

One last adjustment. Marte has started 78 games in center field, 44 at second and five at shortstop. Yelich has started 116 games in right field and three in left. Marte receives a positional adjustment of five runs. Yelich plays lower on the defensive spectrum and receives an adjustment of minus-5 runs. That makes it 52 to 51 runs above average in favor of Marte, and thus the slight edge in WAR.

If the positional adjustment doesn't make sense, view it this way. If a shortstop is credited with 10 runs saved on defense and a first baseman is credited with 10 saved, if you didn't make a positional adjustment, both players would receive credit for the same value on defense. But shortstop is more difficult to play (and the first baseman would probably be a terrible shortstop), so we need to make an adjustment to more accurately compare the two players.

The bottom line: Yelich is having an amazing season. But so is Marte! I think with offensive stats, we sometimes overestimate the difference in numbers between hitters. We see Yelich with the big home run total and slugging percentage and it feels like he's on another plane of existence. Maybe he is. Did you see him in the Body Issue?

Here's another way to look at this. Think of the Tigers versus the Twins. The Tigers have a .682 OPS while the Twins are at .841. That's a huge difference, larger than the difference between Marte and Yelich. The Twins have scored 822 runs to 503 for the Tigers. That's an average of 35 runs per lineup position -- the difference between the highest-scoring team in the league and a team with a historically terrible offense. The difference between Marte and Yelich is smaller than a typical Twins hitter and a typical Tigers hitter.

So maybe it's time to add Marte to the MVP talk.
 
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