The 2019 MLB Random Thoughts Thread
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- Start date
@Knights89 
Another Tiger pitcher that will boost his stats off Buxton's weak ass bat, @TrillaMonsoon :smhkobe:
Another Tiger pitcher that will boost his stats off Buxton's weak ass bat, @TrillaMonsoon :smhkobe:
@Regular_P
man, given the returns of jd/upton/verlader, etc I'm not giving the decisions makers any credit yet lol. Nice to see off to a good start tho
What you make of this team? They can't hit worth a damn but they done gritted out some wins so far
man, given the returns of jd/upton/verlader, etc I'm not giving the decisions makers any credit yet lol. Nice to see off to a good start tho
What you make of this team? They can't hit worth a damn but they done gritted out some wins so far
The front office gets no credit for hitting on the #1 overall pick. That is to be expected.
Teams getting Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jimenez for rentals or #3/#4 SPs and Detroit didn't get shyt for arguably the best hitter in baseball and one of the best aces in the bigs (while still paying 1/3 of his salary).
I think Gardy gets the most out of his teams and they're playing over their heads. If they win 70 games, I'd be shocked. They just don't have enough bats to keep up over a season. Their starting pitching will fall apart too.
This bum Zimmermann is one of the WOAT free agent signings.
All these young arms in the system better be up next season. Mize, Burrows and Manning have to be in the rotation
@Knights89
Another Tiger pitcher that will boost his stats off Buxton's weak ass bat, @TrillaMonsoon :smhkobe:
hes leaving that shyt in the minors. Bux Gawd in the middle of the best outfield in baseball. That adds up to a yearly ERA around 4 for Mize
THASTUNNA
All Star
@TrillaMonsoon 
Cole
Cole
@TrillaMonsoon
Evened up. I didnt realize it was a 4 game series so you get Berrios Thursday. You needed today to have a chance at a split
Professor K.
rap game Paul Millsap
WhatsGoodTy
Ya feel me
Sox up six to one Brandon Workman best bullpen guy in the lg we creeping
WhatsGoodTy
Ya feel me
Ryan dull about to get sent right back down to AAA first pitch he throws it’s a home run so glad we spanking OaklandMore of Stark's article:
2. Presto! Watch the single, triple and stolen base disappear
For every baseball action, there’s a reaction. I think Socrates Brito once said that. Or maybe Sir Isaac Galloway. But whatever, the changing shape of baseball in 2019 means that even as homers, strikeouts and those all-consuming Three True Outcomes keep rising, you might not even have noticed the stuff that’s disappearing. But we can help you with that.
SINGLES – It’s hard to even comprehend, but the average team now hits just 5.06 singles per game. Yeah, you read that right. That was five singles a game! Between massive shifting and launch-angle fever, it’s never been harder to hit a single – ever. If this pace continues, that would produce about 1,600 fewer singles than last year – and nearly 4,000 fewer than just five years ago:
YEAR SINGLES
2019 24,739*
2018 26,322
2017 26,918
2016 27,538
2015 28,016
2014 28,423
2013 28,438
2012 27,941
2011 28,418
(*-projected total)
(Source: Fangraphs; this graph has been updated from a previous version)
STOLEN BASES – Despite the heroic efforts of the Royals, who are currently on pace to attempt 229 steals this year, base-stealing is at nearly a 50-year low. The average team now steals one base every other game. Which means we’re headed for the fewest stolen bases in any season since 1972, the fewest stolen-base attempts since 1965 and about 850 fewer steals than we saw as recently as 2012. The Phillies are on pace to steal 34 all season. The last time they won the World Series (2008), they stole 136.
TRIPLES – Is the triple still the most exciting play in baseball? If so, that’s not good – because we’re on pace for the fewest in history. The average team now hits one triple a week – and only 0.14 per game. So we’re headed for only 680 all season at this point – a drop of 250 just over the last four years. The drop in both steals and triples is a reflection of the scientific calculations that go into baserunning of all shapes and sizes. Teams have never been more reluctant to risk giving away outs, because, as one exec said, “You only get 27 of them every night.”
INTENTIONAL WALKS – You know what else teams don’t give away anymore? Baserunners. Now that the probability tables can calculate how overrated intentional walks always were, a bunch of teams have practically abandoned them entirely. The Astros have issued zero. The Padres and Orioles have doled out one apiece. And the sport is headed for its fewest intentional walks ever. As recently as 2001, back in this very century, Brewers manager Davey Lopes ordered 107 intentional walks by his team alone. Barry Bonds was gifted 120 by himself in 2004. This year, the five AL West teams combined are on pace to issue 75. It’s a new world, ladies and gentlemen.
3. We won’t see Kimbrel or Keuchel until June
Remember Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel? They last threw a pitch in October. It’s now more difficult than ever to believe they’ll throw another one until after the amateur draft, which is still nearly five weeks away.
Thank the Basic Agreement, which says their old teams will receive draft-pick compensation only if they sign a major-league contract “on or before the day prior” to the June draft, which begins this year on June 3. So if Kimbrel and Keuchel have stayed unemployed this long, what’s the downside in waiting another month so that the team signing them won’t have to give up a pick? That may not be their first choice, as Ken Rosenthal wrote this week. But it may be the only way left to revitalize their market.
“Let’s just say I wouldn’t be shocked if Kimbrel waits until after the draft,” said an exec of one team interested in him.
“I predict that neither the Astros nor the Red Sox will get a draft pick for those guys,” said an exec of a team that has stayed in touch on Keuchel. “I don’t know where they’re going to go. I don’t know what they’re going to get. But the one thing I feel strongest about is that neither team will get a pick.”
4. Waving for the bullpen is overrated
Never in history have more managers spent more time waving for a bunch of dudes who come stomping in from the bullpen to throw around 98 miles an hour. So you’d think those managers would be heaving deep, satisfied sighs of relief every time they could get a game into the hands of those fire-breathers, right?
Uh, not this year. Seven teams will head into May with bullpen ERAs of 4.82 or higher. And until it finally flipped on the final day of April, the average team’s bullpen ERA was actually worse than the ERA of its rotation, something that’s never happened in the history of modern pitcher usage. It’s still amazingly close.
YEAR STARTERS ERA RELIEVERS ERA
2019 4.33 4.35
2018 4.19 4.08
2017 4.49 4.15
2016 4.34 3.93
2015 4.10 3.71
2014 3.82 3.58
(Source: ESPN.com)
That’s a head-scratching glitch in 21st-century pitching philosophies, which have brought us quicker hooks on starters than ever before and nearly seven relievers traipsing into the average big-league game. But the best theory I’ve heard from the execs I’ve surveyed is that what we’ve seen so far is a reflection of how unprepared many relievers are when they leave spring training – because nothing they do in the spring replicates anything they do when the season starts.
“The only leverage these guys have in spring training,” said one NL exec, “is: `How quick can we get outa here so we can get on the golf course?’”
5. The Red Sox are the 2018 Dodgers
No two baseball seasons are ever created equal. The 2019 Red Sox could teach a course on that mysterious phenomenon.
It’s hard to argue. But is this team really in trouble? Sure, it is. But you know what these Red Sox should be looking to for inspiration? How about the team they played in the World Series a mere seven months ago?
As The Athletic’s Chad Jennings wrote this week, the 2018 Dodgers were in even worse shape than this. On May 16, they were 10 games under .500 (16-26). They were 8 ½ games out of first place. They had the same record as the Marlins, a team that would go on to lose 98 games. They were in a virtual tie with the Padres (17-27), a team that would lose 96 games. You know what those Dodgers then reminded us?
That when you have 120 or 130 games to play, that’s more than enough time to prove how good you are. From this point on last season, the Red Sox went 86-46. If they even go 76-56 the rest of the way this year, in a league with very few legit contenders, that gets them to 88 wins. There’s a decent chance that would still earn them an invitation to keep playing in October.
6. The Rays are for real
OK, but now the bad news for the Red Sox: That Rays team they’re chasing isn’t the 2018 Diamondbacks.
Is there any team with better arms than this group in Tampa Bay? They lead the American League in ERA, FIP, strikeout percentage, average fastball velocity, whiff percentage, swinging-strike rate, opponent slugging and opponent OPS. They have three elite starters, in Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton – who have combined to go 10-2, with a 2.59 ERA and 116 strikeouts in 87 innings. And their lineup is so underrated, they’re second to the Yankees in average exit velocity.
Now here’s the other reason to think they have staying power: Their depth – in the big leagues and in their system – is up there with any team’s in the sport.
“They’re loaded,” said one rival exec. “And that means they can do anything they want to do in July. They can do nothing, or they can trade for the best player available and not have it impact their future in any significant way.”
For every baseball action, there’s a reaction. I think Socrates Brito once said that. Or maybe Sir Isaac Galloway. But whatever, the changing shape of baseball in 2019 means that even as homers, strikeouts and those all-consuming Three True Outcomes keep rising, you might not even have noticed the stuff that’s disappearing. But we can help you with that.
SINGLES – It’s hard to even comprehend, but the average team now hits just 5.06 singles per game. Yeah, you read that right. That was five singles a game! Between massive shifting and launch-angle fever, it’s never been harder to hit a single – ever. If this pace continues, that would produce about 1,600 fewer singles than last year – and nearly 4,000 fewer than just five years ago:
YEAR SINGLES
2019 24,739*
2018 26,322
2017 26,918
2016 27,538
2015 28,016
2014 28,423
2013 28,438
2012 27,941
2011 28,418
(*-projected total)
(Source: Fangraphs; this graph has been updated from a previous version)
STOLEN BASES – Despite the heroic efforts of the Royals, who are currently on pace to attempt 229 steals this year, base-stealing is at nearly a 50-year low. The average team now steals one base every other game. Which means we’re headed for the fewest stolen bases in any season since 1972, the fewest stolen-base attempts since 1965 and about 850 fewer steals than we saw as recently as 2012. The Phillies are on pace to steal 34 all season. The last time they won the World Series (2008), they stole 136.
TRIPLES – Is the triple still the most exciting play in baseball? If so, that’s not good – because we’re on pace for the fewest in history. The average team now hits one triple a week – and only 0.14 per game. So we’re headed for only 680 all season at this point – a drop of 250 just over the last four years. The drop in both steals and triples is a reflection of the scientific calculations that go into baserunning of all shapes and sizes. Teams have never been more reluctant to risk giving away outs, because, as one exec said, “You only get 27 of them every night.”
INTENTIONAL WALKS – You know what else teams don’t give away anymore? Baserunners. Now that the probability tables can calculate how overrated intentional walks always were, a bunch of teams have practically abandoned them entirely. The Astros have issued zero. The Padres and Orioles have doled out one apiece. And the sport is headed for its fewest intentional walks ever. As recently as 2001, back in this very century, Brewers manager Davey Lopes ordered 107 intentional walks by his team alone. Barry Bonds was gifted 120 by himself in 2004. This year, the five AL West teams combined are on pace to issue 75. It’s a new world, ladies and gentlemen.
3. We won’t see Kimbrel or Keuchel until June
Remember Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel? They last threw a pitch in October. It’s now more difficult than ever to believe they’ll throw another one until after the amateur draft, which is still nearly five weeks away.
Thank the Basic Agreement, which says their old teams will receive draft-pick compensation only if they sign a major-league contract “on or before the day prior” to the June draft, which begins this year on June 3. So if Kimbrel and Keuchel have stayed unemployed this long, what’s the downside in waiting another month so that the team signing them won’t have to give up a pick? That may not be their first choice, as Ken Rosenthal wrote this week. But it may be the only way left to revitalize their market.
“Let’s just say I wouldn’t be shocked if Kimbrel waits until after the draft,” said an exec of one team interested in him.
“I predict that neither the Astros nor the Red Sox will get a draft pick for those guys,” said an exec of a team that has stayed in touch on Keuchel. “I don’t know where they’re going to go. I don’t know what they’re going to get. But the one thing I feel strongest about is that neither team will get a pick.”
4. Waving for the bullpen is overrated
Never in history have more managers spent more time waving for a bunch of dudes who come stomping in from the bullpen to throw around 98 miles an hour. So you’d think those managers would be heaving deep, satisfied sighs of relief every time they could get a game into the hands of those fire-breathers, right?
Uh, not this year. Seven teams will head into May with bullpen ERAs of 4.82 or higher. And until it finally flipped on the final day of April, the average team’s bullpen ERA was actually worse than the ERA of its rotation, something that’s never happened in the history of modern pitcher usage. It’s still amazingly close.
YEAR STARTERS ERA RELIEVERS ERA
2019 4.33 4.35
2018 4.19 4.08
2017 4.49 4.15
2016 4.34 3.93
2015 4.10 3.71
2014 3.82 3.58
(Source: ESPN.com)
That’s a head-scratching glitch in 21st-century pitching philosophies, which have brought us quicker hooks on starters than ever before and nearly seven relievers traipsing into the average big-league game. But the best theory I’ve heard from the execs I’ve surveyed is that what we’ve seen so far is a reflection of how unprepared many relievers are when they leave spring training – because nothing they do in the spring replicates anything they do when the season starts.
“The only leverage these guys have in spring training,” said one NL exec, “is: `How quick can we get outa here so we can get on the golf course?’”
5. The Red Sox are the 2018 Dodgers
No two baseball seasons are ever created equal. The 2019 Red Sox could teach a course on that mysterious phenomenon.
- They haven’t played a game in May yet, and they’ve already lost 17 games (13-17). They lost their 17th game last year on May 27 (when they were 36-17). They lost 18 games last year in March, April and May combined (39-18).
- They had to beat the A’s twice in a row this week just to get back to four games under .500. If they hadn’t, they would have been farther below .500 heading into May than any World Series champ since the 1998 Wayne Huizenga Fire Sale Marlins (9-18) – and more games under .500 than any AL World Series champ in history.
- They’re already seven games out of first place. No World Series champ has been that far out of first entering May since the ’98 Marlins were nine games back.
- They’ve already lost five series. They didn’t lose their fifth series of the season last year until June 10 (when they were 44-22).
- Their starting pitchers are 5-14, with a 5.39 ERA. According to Stats LLC, no defending champ has ever had its rotation slog through March/April with an ERA and winning percentage that low since earned runs became an official stat in 1913.
It’s hard to argue. But is this team really in trouble? Sure, it is. But you know what these Red Sox should be looking to for inspiration? How about the team they played in the World Series a mere seven months ago?
As The Athletic’s Chad Jennings wrote this week, the 2018 Dodgers were in even worse shape than this. On May 16, they were 10 games under .500 (16-26). They were 8 ½ games out of first place. They had the same record as the Marlins, a team that would go on to lose 98 games. They were in a virtual tie with the Padres (17-27), a team that would lose 96 games. You know what those Dodgers then reminded us?
That when you have 120 or 130 games to play, that’s more than enough time to prove how good you are. From this point on last season, the Red Sox went 86-46. If they even go 76-56 the rest of the way this year, in a league with very few legit contenders, that gets them to 88 wins. There’s a decent chance that would still earn them an invitation to keep playing in October.
6. The Rays are for real
OK, but now the bad news for the Red Sox: That Rays team they’re chasing isn’t the 2018 Diamondbacks.
Is there any team with better arms than this group in Tampa Bay? They lead the American League in ERA, FIP, strikeout percentage, average fastball velocity, whiff percentage, swinging-strike rate, opponent slugging and opponent OPS. They have three elite starters, in Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton – who have combined to go 10-2, with a 2.59 ERA and 116 strikeouts in 87 innings. And their lineup is so underrated, they’re second to the Yankees in average exit velocity.
Now here’s the other reason to think they have staying power: Their depth – in the big leagues and in their system – is up there with any team’s in the sport.
“They’re loaded,” said one rival exec. “And that means they can do anything they want to do in July. They can do nothing, or they can trade for the best player available and not have it impact their future in any significant way.”
Rest of Stark article:
7. The National League is exactly as advertised
The consensus in this sport a month ago was that this would be a really fun year in the life of the National League. And now that it’s May, guess what we know? The consensus actually got one right.
Nine teams in the NL emerged from April within a game of .500 or better. And the only thing surprising about that is that the Nationals and Rockies weren’t two of those nine.
THE NL EAST: “Just what everyone thought it was going to be,” said one exec. One plotline in this four-team free-for-all that nobody saw coming was Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola combining for a 4.82 ERA. One plotline everybody saw coming was the bullpen issues across the East that inspired one scout to say: “The team that fixes its bullpen first might win the division.”
THE NL CENTRAL: The Cardinals (19-10) might be a surprise to some people. But they were actually my NL World Series pick. They’re 16-5 over the last three weeks despite playing the second-toughest schedule in baseball, according to baseball-reference.com. Their position players lead the major leagues in total Wins Above Replacement. And the 25 fastest pitches in baseball this year have all been thrown by their rapidly ascending closer, Jordan Hicks. Behind them, who out there envisioned the Cubs catching the Brewers after the Cubbies started out 1-6 and the Brewers started 7-1? But it could be that kind of year in this wild-as-ever division.
THE NL WEST: The Dodgers are so deep and so talented, they feel like they’re on cruise control, waiting around for October, but they still seem poised to run away from this pack. They lead the league in runs scored. They’re on pace to hit 263 homers, which would obliterate the franchise record. And about the only real worry here is that Kenley Jansen’s case of gopherball fever, which flared up last year (13, plus two more in October) hasn’t disappeared. He’s on pace to give up 15 this season, for what it’s worth. But are the Rockies, Diamondbacks or Padres good enough to hang in this race? Every exec I polled on that question said no.
8. Cody Bellinger is a superstar
Just a few short months ago, Cody Bellinger got benched by those very same Dodgers against Chris Sale and David Price (both left-handed-throwing humans) in Games 1 and 2 of the World Series. By all accounts, he wasn’t a big fan of those benchings.
It’s hard to say how much that motivated him to turn into the 2019 MVP (so far). But he might have just had the greatest March/April – non-Barry Bonds division – of any player in history who didn’t get to play half his games at Coors Field.
GREATEST MARCH/APRIL EVER?
(20+ Games, 10+ HR, .400/.500/.890/1.390+ slash line)
YEAR PLAYER HR SLASH
2004 Barry Bonds 10 .472/.696/1.132/1.828
1997 Larry Walker 11 .456/.538/.911/1.449
2019 Cody Bellinger 14 .431/.508/.890/1.397
But beyond all that mashing, Bellinger is also: in the top 15 in the sport in Statcast sprint speed … the only player in baseball, according to Fangraphs, with double-figure homers and at least four infield hits … leading all NL right fielders, according to Sports Info Solutions, in Defensive Runs Saved (with seven).
Oh, and one more thing. He’s hitting .343/.385/.743 against left-handed pitching. So apparently, he isn’t a platoon-split guy anymore.
9. The heck with the “Kris Bryant rule”
As Kris Bryant could testify, there will always be teams in this sport that will care about service-time manipulation, the free-agent clock and Super-Two arbitration eligibility. But there’s another side to this story. The Fernando Tatis Jr. side. The Pete Alonso side. The Chris Paddack side.
All three of them made their teams’ Opening Day rosters this spring. How’d that work out?
TATIS: Just went on the Injured List, unfortunately. But leads the Padres in Wins Above Replacement (1.6). Has a .300/.360/.550 slash line. Joins two guys named Christian Yelich and Trevor Story as the only players in the NL with at least six homers and six steals. Energized his franchise every day he was on the field.
ALONSO: Leads a team with a $161.8-million payroll in Wins Above Replacement (1.7). His .292/.382/.642 slash line would be unmatched by any Mets rookie in history. With nine homers, already well on his way to breaking Darryl Strawberry’s record for most by a Mets rookie (26). Proud owner of the hardest-hit baseball (118.3 mph exit velocity) of 2019. See above for “energized his franchise.”
PADDACK: Six starts into his big-league career, still hasn’t allowed more than four hits in any of them. Heads into May leading all starters in the major leagues in WHIP (0.70), opponent average (.126) and opponent OPS (.404). A must-see attraction every time he’s out there.
Maybe the Mets and Padres will contend this year. Maybe they don’t have the depth or staying power. But if they do, shouldn’t there be a lesson for GMs of the future about the impact of phenoms like this in those weeks before most teams commonly call up their best prospects? Those three extra weeks of players this special could easily be the difference between a playoff spot and a spot on an October fishing boat.
In an age where most of the biggest stars are signing extensions anyway, it’s possible that in the future, only the “super-duper talents” and “future Hall of Famers” will get held down to buy an extra year on the free-agent clock, said one of the execs quoted above. But what stunned the industry this year was that the Padres didn’t worry about that with Tatís, who could fit that definition.
“I have to admit,” the same exec said, “that was gutsy. I hope they don’t look up in six years and see him filing for free agency. But my guess is that they’ll sign him. I sure hope so.”
10. The whole sport has turned into Nolan Ryan
Once upon a time, there was a pitcher named Nolan Ryan. We think of him as the greatest strikeout machine who ever lived. That’ll happen when a guy strikes out 5,714 innocent hitters who make the mistake of stepping in to “hit” against him.
But I noticed something about Ryan the other day that blew my mind. His rate of strikeouts per nine innings wasn’t 12 or 13 or 15. It was “only” 9.55.
I bring that up because, on the day I came upon that number, I noticed something else: For the first time ever, the entire sport of baseball has a strikeout rate of 9.0 per nine innings. And that’s a mind-boggling revelation about baseball in 2019. Your average pitcher now piles up a strikeout an inning. Or pretty close to what Nolan Ryan once did.
Now obviously, in Ryan’s era, all other pitchers averaged 5.46 strikeouts per nine innings, according to Lee Sinins’ Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. So it was a very different time. But that’s the point! Just since 2008, the strikeout rate has jumped from 6.8 per nine innings to nearly 9.0. And here’s the impact of that:
2008: 32,884 strikeouts
2019: 43,084 strikeouts*
(*-projected)
Yep, we’re on pace to see a jump of 10,000 strikeouts in just over a decade. But that’s baseball in 2019.
“If I had to put $20 on one record we’ll break this year, it would be on the strikeout record,” said one of the AL execs quoted earlier. “The game has become a sheer power game, on both sides of the ball. We’re looking for guys who throw the ball hard and guys who hit the ball hard. So if we’re scouting a guy and he’s not striking out nine per nine innings, we’re literally calling him a soft-tosser.”
As opposed to 50 years ago, when you know what Nolan Ryan’s strikeout rate was in his rookie season? How about 8.9 whiffs per nine innings. What a different universe.
The consensus in this sport a month ago was that this would be a really fun year in the life of the National League. And now that it’s May, guess what we know? The consensus actually got one right.
Nine teams in the NL emerged from April within a game of .500 or better. And the only thing surprising about that is that the Nationals and Rockies weren’t two of those nine.
THE NL EAST: “Just what everyone thought it was going to be,” said one exec. One plotline in this four-team free-for-all that nobody saw coming was Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola combining for a 4.82 ERA. One plotline everybody saw coming was the bullpen issues across the East that inspired one scout to say: “The team that fixes its bullpen first might win the division.”
THE NL CENTRAL: The Cardinals (19-10) might be a surprise to some people. But they were actually my NL World Series pick. They’re 16-5 over the last three weeks despite playing the second-toughest schedule in baseball, according to baseball-reference.com. Their position players lead the major leagues in total Wins Above Replacement. And the 25 fastest pitches in baseball this year have all been thrown by their rapidly ascending closer, Jordan Hicks. Behind them, who out there envisioned the Cubs catching the Brewers after the Cubbies started out 1-6 and the Brewers started 7-1? But it could be that kind of year in this wild-as-ever division.
THE NL WEST: The Dodgers are so deep and so talented, they feel like they’re on cruise control, waiting around for October, but they still seem poised to run away from this pack. They lead the league in runs scored. They’re on pace to hit 263 homers, which would obliterate the franchise record. And about the only real worry here is that Kenley Jansen’s case of gopherball fever, which flared up last year (13, plus two more in October) hasn’t disappeared. He’s on pace to give up 15 this season, for what it’s worth. But are the Rockies, Diamondbacks or Padres good enough to hang in this race? Every exec I polled on that question said no.
8. Cody Bellinger is a superstar
Just a few short months ago, Cody Bellinger got benched by those very same Dodgers against Chris Sale and David Price (both left-handed-throwing humans) in Games 1 and 2 of the World Series. By all accounts, he wasn’t a big fan of those benchings.
It’s hard to say how much that motivated him to turn into the 2019 MVP (so far). But he might have just had the greatest March/April – non-Barry Bonds division – of any player in history who didn’t get to play half his games at Coors Field.
GREATEST MARCH/APRIL EVER?
(20+ Games, 10+ HR, .400/.500/.890/1.390+ slash line)
YEAR PLAYER HR SLASH
2004 Barry Bonds 10 .472/.696/1.132/1.828
1997 Larry Walker 11 .456/.538/.911/1.449
2019 Cody Bellinger 14 .431/.508/.890/1.397
But beyond all that mashing, Bellinger is also: in the top 15 in the sport in Statcast sprint speed … the only player in baseball, according to Fangraphs, with double-figure homers and at least four infield hits … leading all NL right fielders, according to Sports Info Solutions, in Defensive Runs Saved (with seven).
Oh, and one more thing. He’s hitting .343/.385/.743 against left-handed pitching. So apparently, he isn’t a platoon-split guy anymore.
9. The heck with the “Kris Bryant rule”
As Kris Bryant could testify, there will always be teams in this sport that will care about service-time manipulation, the free-agent clock and Super-Two arbitration eligibility. But there’s another side to this story. The Fernando Tatis Jr. side. The Pete Alonso side. The Chris Paddack side.
All three of them made their teams’ Opening Day rosters this spring. How’d that work out?
TATIS: Just went on the Injured List, unfortunately. But leads the Padres in Wins Above Replacement (1.6). Has a .300/.360/.550 slash line. Joins two guys named Christian Yelich and Trevor Story as the only players in the NL with at least six homers and six steals. Energized his franchise every day he was on the field.
ALONSO: Leads a team with a $161.8-million payroll in Wins Above Replacement (1.7). His .292/.382/.642 slash line would be unmatched by any Mets rookie in history. With nine homers, already well on his way to breaking Darryl Strawberry’s record for most by a Mets rookie (26). Proud owner of the hardest-hit baseball (118.3 mph exit velocity) of 2019. See above for “energized his franchise.”
PADDACK: Six starts into his big-league career, still hasn’t allowed more than four hits in any of them. Heads into May leading all starters in the major leagues in WHIP (0.70), opponent average (.126) and opponent OPS (.404). A must-see attraction every time he’s out there.
Maybe the Mets and Padres will contend this year. Maybe they don’t have the depth or staying power. But if they do, shouldn’t there be a lesson for GMs of the future about the impact of phenoms like this in those weeks before most teams commonly call up their best prospects? Those three extra weeks of players this special could easily be the difference between a playoff spot and a spot on an October fishing boat.
In an age where most of the biggest stars are signing extensions anyway, it’s possible that in the future, only the “super-duper talents” and “future Hall of Famers” will get held down to buy an extra year on the free-agent clock, said one of the execs quoted above. But what stunned the industry this year was that the Padres didn’t worry about that with Tatís, who could fit that definition.
“I have to admit,” the same exec said, “that was gutsy. I hope they don’t look up in six years and see him filing for free agency. But my guess is that they’ll sign him. I sure hope so.”
10. The whole sport has turned into Nolan Ryan
Once upon a time, there was a pitcher named Nolan Ryan. We think of him as the greatest strikeout machine who ever lived. That’ll happen when a guy strikes out 5,714 innocent hitters who make the mistake of stepping in to “hit” against him.
But I noticed something about Ryan the other day that blew my mind. His rate of strikeouts per nine innings wasn’t 12 or 13 or 15. It was “only” 9.55.
I bring that up because, on the day I came upon that number, I noticed something else: For the first time ever, the entire sport of baseball has a strikeout rate of 9.0 per nine innings. And that’s a mind-boggling revelation about baseball in 2019. Your average pitcher now piles up a strikeout an inning. Or pretty close to what Nolan Ryan once did.
Now obviously, in Ryan’s era, all other pitchers averaged 5.46 strikeouts per nine innings, according to Lee Sinins’ Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. So it was a very different time. But that’s the point! Just since 2008, the strikeout rate has jumped from 6.8 per nine innings to nearly 9.0. And here’s the impact of that:
2008: 32,884 strikeouts
2019: 43,084 strikeouts*
(*-projected)
Yep, we’re on pace to see a jump of 10,000 strikeouts in just over a decade. But that’s baseball in 2019.
“If I had to put $20 on one record we’ll break this year, it would be on the strikeout record,” said one of the AL execs quoted earlier. “The game has become a sheer power game, on both sides of the ball. We’re looking for guys who throw the ball hard and guys who hit the ball hard. So if we’re scouting a guy and he’s not striking out nine per nine innings, we’re literally calling him a soft-tosser.”
As opposed to 50 years ago, when you know what Nolan Ryan’s strikeout rate was in his rookie season? How about 8.9 whiffs per nine innings. What a different universe.