Rosenthal: MLB needs to improve competitive balance; Keuchel’s contract history; the Cards are falling; more notes
By Ken Rosenthal 5h ago
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Officials from baseball and the players’ union are expected to begin discussions on economic issues within the next two weeks, according to major-league sources.
These are discussions the union wanted, so the burden is on the players to bring realistic proposals to the table. Still, both sides should be motivated to adjust before the current collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1, 2021.
Anyone who questions whether the sport is facing acute competitive problems need only check the standings. And no, the issue is not simply that three of the six division races essentially are over with the season less than half-complete.
Two teams, the Royals and Orioles, are on pace to lose more than 110 games. Two more, the Blue Jays and Marlins, are on pace to lose more than 100. Then there are the Mariners, Giants and Tigers, who are on pace to lose 96, 96 and 99, respectively, and like a number of the other rebuilding clubs, figure to grow weaker still once they start trading veterans.
So, the potential exists for seven 100-loss teams in a sport that only once had as many as four – in 2002, when the Rays, Brewers and Tigers all lost 106, and the Royals lost 100. Five of the current 100-loss candidates are in the American League, making their ineptitude all the more astonishing, considering that they get to play each other.
A similar pattern developed last season – five teams were on pace to lose 100 games at this stage, and a sixth was on pace to lose 98. Only three teams – the Orioles, White Sox and Royals – actually lost 100. But that does not make the current look any better, especially when half the division races are all but decided. Through the same date a year ago, every division was still in play; no first-place club had a lead larger than five games.
Not that everything is negative. The Twins are the game’s biggest surprise, and the Rays also are exceeding expectations, even after winning 90 games last season. The Padres and White Sox finally are showing progress in their rebuilds. The Reds remain in last place even after an active offseason, but are a more competitive, interesting team.
Still, baseball can do better.
The union initially sought to address its competitive concerns by proposing draft incentives and service-time adjustments during the offseason. Baseball countered both proposals, but the talks did not advance. The two sides reached agreement on a number of rules changes with the understanding they would discuss broader economic concepts after Opening Day.
Negotiations on economics in the middle of a collective bargaining agreement are virtually unprecedented in nearly a half-century of labor relations in baseball. A series of extensive changes conceivably could result in an extension of the CBA, which obviously would be a plus at a time when labor tension is as high as it has been since the last players’ strike in 1994-95.
Baseball’s willingness to engage in such talks – while an acknowledgment of the players’ frustration with the current system – does not assure the owners would significantly alter a deal they agreed upon 2 1/2 years ago. But some owners also recognize that the large number of non-competitive teams is damaging to the sport.
The two sides need to adjust the CBA to better incentivize winning. The current version of the agreement isn’t getting it done.
Revisiting Keuchel’s rejection of $90 million
Back in January, I reported that Dallas Keuchel turned down a five-year, $90 million extension with the Astros in April 2016, the season after he won the Cy Young Award. The deal would have covered Keuchel’s final two arbitration years, for which he eventually was paid $22.35 million, and first three years of free agency.
So, for Keuchel to beat the Astros’ proposed guarantee as a free agent, he needed to clear at least $67.35 million. That number still might be attainable now that he has signed his one-year $13 million deal with the Braves – no player can receive a qualifying offer twice, meaning Keuchel will be an unrestricted free agent next winter. But at that point he will be entering his age 32 season, and in a strict apples-to-apples comparison, he already has lost.
If Keuchel eventually beats the Astros’ proposed $90 million guarantee, there is little chance it will be over the same five-year term the team offered – he would need to earn $54.35 million over the first two years of his next contract, assuming he signs a multi-year deal.
Keuchel’s rationale for rejecting the Astros’ offer in 2016 was neither unusual nor unreasonable — he told his former agents at Frontline Athlete Management he wanted to maximize his earnings by reaching free agency (he left Frontline for Scott Boras entering his final arbitration year). However, he later acknowledged experiencing shoulder pain that entire season. And when he finally reached free agency, sources throughout the industry said his shoulder was a concern for some teams, even though he pitched 214 2/3 innings last season, including playoffs.
Some close to Keuchel believe he will turn a negative into a positive, channeling his frustration with the free-agent process into added motivation. Still, a provision in his contract stating he must join the Braves by June 18 only adds to the pressure he is facing. The two sides could agree to extend that date, but it’s in the interests of both parties for Keuchel to be in the majors as soon as possible.
Craig Kimbrel’s three-year, $43 million contract with the Cubs does not include a date when he must be in the majors. The Cubs, mindful that Greg Holland spent less than 10 days in the minors with the Cardinals after missing spring training last season, want Kimbrel to mimic a closer’s normal spring-training buildup, which means he could be about three weeks away from joining the team.
House of Cards in St. Louis
It’s difficult to say which is more of a disappointment – the Cardinals’ rotation, which ranks 11th in the NL with a 4.35 ERA, or their offense, which was supposed to evolve into more of a force with the addition of first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
The Cardinals are actually worse with Goldschmidt than they were without him, averaging 4.64 runs per game, down from 4.69 last season. Their month-by-month averages highlight their decline since the season started – the Cardinals were at 5.45 in March/April, second only to the Cubs in the NL, and have since dropped to 4.30 in May (13th) and 2.88 in June (14th).
Other aspects of the Cardinals’ game are strong – they rank third in the majors in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric, and eighth in defensive runs saved. But they’ve scored two or fewer runs in 15 of their last 34 games, going (12-22) in that time.
A year ago, while with the Diamondbacks, Goldschmidt had a .719 OPS before popping a 1.199 in June. He has not struggled as badly with the Cardinals, producing a .799 OPS, but he has not gotten as hot, either. Even Marcell Ozuna’s team-high .872 OPS ranks just 47th in the majors.
As one Cardinals official puts it, “Every lineup needs anchors.” To this point, the Cardinals’ anchors have not been good enough.
All about the Cubs
*Cubs first-year hitting coach Anthony Iapoce raves about first baseman Anthony Rizzo, citing something that is rarely discussed – the first baseman’s ability, and willingness, to play every day.
Rizzo, 29, has averaged 154 games over the past six seasons, and Iapoce notes that he puts up great at-bat after great at-bat regardless of who is pitching. Between the cold weather early in the season and the large number of day games, the Cubs’ schedule presents unique challenges. But Rizzo proceeds undaunted, and even the way he charges bunts impresses Iapoce.
“Everyone can do that, but nobody wants to,” he says. “It’s scary.”
*Even with his recent hot streak, left fielder Kyle Schwarber is only a .230 career hitter in the majors – a surprise, considering that he was expected to be more of a complete hitter and not a three-true-outcomes slugger when the Cubs made him the fourth overall pick in the 2014 draft.
Schwarber, though, is still only 26, still capable of developing into the hitter the Cubs envisioned. His surge began shortly after the Cubs moved him to the leadoff spot on May 16. Since then, he’s batting .255/.342/.574. Before that, he was at .224/.341/.388.
*Catcher Willson Contreras is enjoying his best offensive season while producing the highest strikeout rate of his career – and in his mind, the two actually are related.
Contreras, 27, attributes part of his success this season to “losing my fear of striking out,” a fear he feels hampered him as a younger player. This season, his strikeout percentage has increased from 22.2 percent in 2018 to 28.4 percent in ‘19, and his OPS has increased from .730 to .927.
Another difference with Contreras goes back to spring training, when he began working on hitting to all fields, as opposed to just the pull side. His pull rate last season was 37.3 percent, his opposite-field rate 26.9 percent. This season those numbers are closer – 33.3 pull, 32.5 oppo.
La Stella as in All-Star?
On Sunday, the day before baseball announced the first update of the American League All-Star voting, I contacted the Angels’ Tommy La Stella to ask what it would mean to him to make an All-Star team.
La Stella, 30, spent almost his entire career as a reserve prior to this season – he had 360 plate appearances as a rookie with the Braves in 2014, but had not exceeded 192 since.
“There was a time when making an All-Star team was a goal I had but it’s been a while since I’ve thought that way,” La Stella said. “To even be on the ballot is pretty cool for my friends and family.”
Was it his first time on the ballot?
“Honestly, I’ve never looked. I never had a reason to, so I don’t know,” La Stella said. “Probably though.”
A year ago at this time,
I wrote about La Stella’s remarkable transformationfrom a pariah with the Cubs to a team leader (he had gone home rather than accept an assignment to Triple A in 2016, the year the Cubs won the World Series).
The Cubs traded La Stella to the Angels on Nov. 29, eventually signing free agent Daniel Descalso to replace him and acquiring minor-league left-hander Conor Lillis-White as the player to be named in the trade. La Stella projected to be a utility or platoon player with the Angels, but he quickly evolved into the everyday second baseman – and now ranks 13th in the AL with a .900 OPS.
Around the horn
Information gathered from major-league sources:
*Multiple contenders are showing interest in Pirates outfielder Melky Cabrera, who is batting .335 with a .837 OPS in 185 plate appearances at a salary of $1.15 million.
The Pirates’ preference, however, is to reduce their surplus of outfielders by trading Corey dikkerson, who came off the injured list on Saturday after missing more than two months with a right shoulder strain. For such a deal to happen, dikkerson must show he is healthy and productive while earning the remainder of his $8.5 million salary.
The Pirates, awaiting the return of Trevor Williams from a right side strain and promotion of Mitch Keller from Triple A, want to take another stab at contention before moving Cabrera and possibly others. They are 7 1/2 games out in the NL Central.
*The Padres, another team with a surplus of outfielders, are finding Hunter Renfroe to be quite popular in trade discussions – no surprise, considering that Renfroe has 18 homers and an .898 OPS at a salary of $582,100. He becomes eligible for arbitration this offseason, then is under club control for three more years.
The Pads, for all their improvement, are trending toward becoming sellers. They are 33-33 with a negative-31 run differential, and their 12-game deficit in the NL West leaves the wild card as their only realistic path to the postseason.
Some with the club believe general manager A.J. Preller will treat closer Kirby Yates as this year’s Brad Hand, trying to maximize his value by trading him at the deadline. Yates, 23-for-23 in save chances with a 0.96 ERA, is eligible for free agency after next season.
Preller, though, would risk upsetting the clubhouse dynamic if he moved Yates, and he would need to get a better return than he did for Hand. In that deal, the Padres sent Hand and fellow reliever Adam Cimber to the Indians for catching prospect Francisco Mejía, who has batted only .176 with a .548 OPS in the majors in 116 plate appearances at the major-league level with San Diego.
*The Diamondbacks’ talks with the Mariners about right-hander Mike Leake, first reported by the Seattle Times, never got serious, but they did offer insight into the D-Backs’ current thinking.
While the best guess is that the D-Backs will end up sellers, they are 35-32 and just 2 1/2 games back in the wild-card race. Meanwhile, Luke Weaver is out with forearm issues. Taijuan Walker had a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Zack Godley still is working out of the bullpen.
The D-Backs, currently relying on rookies Jon Duplantier and Taylor Clarke, would benefit from the addition of a veteran starter – one they could always flip at the July 31 trade deadline if they fell out of contention later.
