Going by the reviews should be Hades II it's a 94-95 on both Opencritic and Metacritic and the highest the others get are 91-92 at best. I think they'll give it to Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 because it's a feel good story and they'll probably play it as a JRPG.
Ironically an actual JRPG released this year which got reviews in the range of Death Stranding 2 and Kingdom Come 2 didn't get a nomination. They've nominated remakes for this category in the past and Trails in the Sky 1st is a 90 on Opencritic and an 88 on Metacritic wasn't considered. Just goes to show how actual JRPGs not named Final Fantasy or Persona fair in stuff like this.
Also Dispatch got snubbed unless they push it to next year.
Dispatch"s problem is that they didn't release review codes for the entire game up front. Since the game was episodic, most outlets I saw opted to either review once all episodes were out, treat it as a an unscored review in progress until everything was out, or merely review individual episodes with a full review coming later.
Either way, the full product wasn't out in time to make the cutoff.
Also, regarding that Trails game, this is where playing the Metacritic/Opencritic game falls short. Because while the score may be similar, context matters. The game may be very good, but it didn't have the same cultural impact that the other games nominated did.