NL WAR Leaders (Fangraphs)
| Shohei Ohtani | 6.0 |
| Trea Turner | 5.7 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 5.4 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr | 5.1 |
| Corbin Carroll | 5.0 |
It's likely Ohtani wins it.
As much as we like to believe we understand and respect modern metrics, defensive value is still largely ignored by the voters and general public. Trea Turner won't get nearly the respect he deserves for the season he's currently having.
So if Ohtani wins MVP, that will make him a 4-time winner (2021, 2023, 2024, and 2025)
The only person with more MVPs would be Barry Bonds (7 MVPs).
Now personally, I still don't view Ohtani as being on Bonds' level as a hitter, and a lot of guys in MLB history would have more MVPs if modern metrics were taken into account.
It's worth noting the award didn't even exist in its modern format until 1931. Before that you had the Chalmers Award (1911-1914), which was sort of a Batting Average award, later modified before it was scrapped. Then you had the League Awards (1922-1929) which was only voted on by 8 baseball writers and players were ineligible to win it more than once.
Still, 4 MVPs would go a heck of a long way toward securing Ohtani's legacy.