āThere is nothing Palestinians can doā
There is little chance of Hamas launching another October 7-style attack in the foreseeable future. Many analysts agree that what allowed for the assault to succeed was catching Israel completely off guard ā an element of surprise that is long gone, along with the likelihood that Israel would repeat the same tactical and intelligence failures.
Hamas understands this well, which is why in negotiations this week over U.S. President Donald Trumpās latest plan to end the war, it has signaled to mediators its willingness to decommission āoffensive weaponsā while retaining light ādefensive weapons,ā such as rifles and anti-tank missiles. The emphasis on the latter stems from a fear of Israel reneging on withdrawing from Gaza or carrying out regular raids unchallenged, as in the West Bank.
Hamas may also need those light arms in order both to enforce the ceasefire and get buy-in from its own members, as well as other smaller but more hardline groups. It may also believe that disarming completely could create a security vacuum in Gaza, one that could be filled by Salafist and jihadist groups or criminal gangs, like the Israeli-backed Abu Shabab militia. And, of course, there is fear of societal retribution, of people attacking Hamas members on the streets.
But even if Hamas manages to reach a deal to end the war that includes full Israeli withdrawal and allows the group to retain ādefensive weapons,ā armed resistance ā once seen as the last card to play after the collapse of negotiations, diplomacy, and moral appeals ā now lies in the same graveyard of failed strategies. Two years into the genocide, what remains is not conviction but collapse: of language, hope, politics, and every appeal Palestinians have made in the face of their annihilation.
Last year, I asked a top EU leader what he thinks Palestinians should do differently, and what advice he would give to the PA, Hamas, and the Palestinian public. After giving it some thought, he resigned in his chair in despair. āThere is nothing Palestinians can do,ā he admitted. āThey tried everything.ā
At best, Trumpās latest plan will end the war, but what will endure is not a roadmap but a political void. And in that void, Palestinians will be left to grapple with the heaviest truth of all: that no matter which path they choose ā quiet submission or armed defiance ā the world has already failed to prevent the genocide of their people. This is a fact that cannot be undone.