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Theresa May calls June 8th Election (RESULT: Tories fail to win majority; Coalition formed with DUP)
DynamoEAR
All Star
UKIP wiped out, Labour struggling
LONDON — If Theresa May was hoping local elections would be a test of the mood ahead of a national ballot on June 8, she will now be even more confident of victory.
Her Conservatives made big gains across England, Scotland and Wales, mainly at the expense of Labour and UKIP, the former suffering bruising defeats in traditional strongholds and the latter losing almost all of its seats on county councils.
Votes were cast on Thursday, with results coming in throughout Friday as seats on 35 English councils and every council seat in Scotland and Wales were up for grabs, as well as six new positions of metropolitan mayors.
Here are five takeaways from the local elections.
1. Tories on the march
How blue can Britain go?
That appears to be the biggest question ahead of the general election after these results.
As of late Friday afternoon, the Conservatives had gained 555 seats on councils. They also won shock victories in the mayoral elections in the Tees Valley and the West Midlands, both formerly strong Labour areas.
This shouldn’t happen to a party that has been in government for seven years. In the typical electoral cycle, opposition parties do well in local elections. Former Prime Minister David Cameron lost 236 local council seats a year before winning a majority in national elections. So what kind of seat-count might Theresa May be on course for on June 8?
Perhaps the key development on display in the local elections was the collapse of UKIP as an electoral force.
“What we’re now seeing is a mass movement of the 3.8 million UKIP voters at the last general election to the Theresa May column,” the Euroskeptic party’s ex-MP Douglas Carswell told POLITICO.
Former United Kingdom Independence Party MP Douglas Carswell | Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP via Getty Images
That could have huge ramifications at the general election. In nearly every seat where the Conservatives came second in 2015, the UKIP vote was partly to blame. Voters who might otherwise naturally vote Tory gravitated toward the party because Cameron and the Tory establishment didn’t look Euroskeptic enough. They have no such worries now.
Factor in a plunge in support for Labour under Jeremy Corbyn and predictions that May could be heading for a landslide show no sign of being disproved.
Senior Tories are playing down the results, conscious that over-hyping their gains could keep their vote at home on June 8.
“People will use it [local elections] as a barometer. I won’t,” party chairman Patrick McLoughlin said ahead of Friday’s results. “These are local elections and there will be many different factors in each campaign … as a Conservative Party we are not going to be complacent and take things for granted. We are going to work for this victory.”
What would the triumph of Theresa May’s new Conservatives — out UKIPing UKIP — mean for Brexit?
Paradoxically, there’s a chance it could lead to a more moderate exit deal than might otherwise have been the case. May was a Remainer, after all. She knows full well how damaging a cliff-edge exit would be. And if she delivers her landslide, she will have acres of political room to maneuver.
Paying a Brexit bill? Accepting a long transition period? Continued membership of certain EU agencies? Her party would struggle to say no to any of these, if they were delivered by the woman who helped them win so big.
2. Labour takes a beating
Finishing behind the Conservatives in the race to elect mayors in the West Midlands and the Tees Valley — both former strongholds. Losing overall control of Glasgow council for the first time in 40 years. Losing nearly 400 council seats nationwide.
Take your pick of the most damaging headline for the Labour Party, which is on course to take about 27 percent of the national vote share to the Tories’ 38 percent.
There were some points of light. The party’s support held up better than expected in Wales and former MPs Steve Rotheram and Andy Burnham triumphed in the mayoral races in Liverpool and Greater Manchester. These two new power bases — along with Sadiq Khan’s London — represent opportunities for Labour to show it can govern.
Former Labour cabinet minister Andy Burnham delivers a speech after being elected as Mayor of Greater Manchester in north west England, on May 5, 2017 | Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images
But these were foregone conclusions. An opposition party at this stage in the electoral cycle would, in normal circumstances, expect to be gaining hundreds of council seats — not losing them.
The recriminations against Corbyn, whom many candidates blame for their poor showing at the polls, have already begun.
“We can’t just put a spin on this,” Stephen Kinnock, the son of former party leader Neil Kinnock, who is standing for re-election as MP for Aberavon, told the BBC. “The fact of the matter is that Jeremy’s leadership does come up on the doorstep on a very regular basis.” He doesn’t mean in a good way.
3. Scotland’s counter-revolution
The unionist counter-revolution is underway — and it’s the Scottish Tories leading it.
It took years of painstaking, plodding work by Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson to remove the whiff of Thatcherism from the Tory brand. To make it socially acceptable.
But it needed a cause.
Nicola Sturgeon’s bid to hold a second independence referendum in the wake of last year’s U.K. vote to leave the EU has given Scottish Toryism that cause.
Under Davidson, the party has transformed itself into a viable alternative for the other half of Scotland — the 50 percent and more who have yet to be won over by the SNP.
It took years of painstaking, plodding work by Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson to remove the whiff of Thatcherism from the Tory brand.
Some of the results were symbolic — indicators of the underlying trend. Labour losing control of Glasgow while Tory candidates were elected in the city’s poorest eastern wards. The Tories winning their first ever seat in the Western Isles.
But the real story lay in the numbers. By 4 p.m. the Tories were the only party in Scotland to have gained seats — up by 164. Every other party was down — Labour by 133 seats and the SNP by 7.
John Nicolson, an SNP MP, gave a hint of the nationalist irritation at the results. “It was an absolutely vacuous campaign,” he said of the Tory bid to turn the contest into a referendum on the independence question. “It might be effective but it doesn’t reach the sunlit uplands does it?”
Former Scottish first minister Alex Salmond weighed in, saying the Conservatives had “eliminated UKIP by becoming UKIP.”
The Tory candidate in Glasgow’s east-end Shettleston ward, Thomas Kerr, put the other side. “When you stand as a candidate in the east end of Glasgow for the Conservative Party you don’t expect something like this to happen. They wanted to send a message to Nicola Sturgeon that they didn’t want a second referendum.”
4. UKIP wiped out
The signs of trouble for the UK Independence Party were there — but the scale of the local election defeat confounded even the worst expectations.
By lunchtime the party had failed to make a single gain. Its supporters watched helplessly as councilors who had swept into public office in 2013 on a wave of Euroskepticism and anti-immigration sentiment were toppled by the Tories.
UKIP leader Paul Nuttall tried to put a brave face on it.
“If the price of Britain leaving the EU is a Tory advance after taking up this patriotic cause, then it is the price UKIP is prepared to pay,” he said in a statement.
The party’s ambitions for June 8 have been curbed. It will target a group of seats where it is strong on the ground, Nuttall said. But even in UKIP heartlands, there was little to cheer for the once resurgent purple army.
“If the price of Britain leaving the EU is a Tory advance after taking up this patriotic cause, then it is the price UKIP is prepared to pay” — UKIP leader Paul Nuttall
The vote collapsed in Essex, Lincolnshire, Norfolk and Hampshire — all key battlegrounds for the party at the general election. The loss of a grassroots base and vital campaigning infrastructure should not be underestimated.
The party’s former MP Douglas Carswell gave a blunt assessment, tweeting: “It’s over.” He told POLITICO he saw little point in the party fielding candidates or campaigning for the general election.
5. Lib Dem revival fizzles
Friday began with disappointment for the centrist Liberal Democrats, who have bet the house on positioning themselves as the pro-EU party and a home for the 48 percent who voted Remain.
But despite recent gains in by-elections, nationwide they actually had a net loss of more than 30 seats, proving just as vulnerable to the Tory surge in some areas as Labour have been.
However, more detailed analysis of the results gave them some cause for optimism. Their national vote share is projected to be 18 percent, better than they are currently scoring in opinion polls and up seven percent on the 2015 general election — although they tend to do better in local elections than in nationals.
On a visit to heavily Remain area St Albans, where the party topped the polls and hopes to return an MP on June 8, leader Tim Farron predicted they could double their seat count in parliament if the local results were replicated. That would bring them to 18. Theresa May won’t be too worried.
5 takeaways from the UK local elections
LONDON — If Theresa May was hoping local elections would be a test of the mood ahead of a national ballot on June 8, she will now be even more confident of victory.
Her Conservatives made big gains across England, Scotland and Wales, mainly at the expense of Labour and UKIP, the former suffering bruising defeats in traditional strongholds and the latter losing almost all of its seats on county councils.
Votes were cast on Thursday, with results coming in throughout Friday as seats on 35 English councils and every council seat in Scotland and Wales were up for grabs, as well as six new positions of metropolitan mayors.
Here are five takeaways from the local elections.
1. Tories on the march
How blue can Britain go?
That appears to be the biggest question ahead of the general election after these results.
As of late Friday afternoon, the Conservatives had gained 555 seats on councils. They also won shock victories in the mayoral elections in the Tees Valley and the West Midlands, both formerly strong Labour areas.
This shouldn’t happen to a party that has been in government for seven years. In the typical electoral cycle, opposition parties do well in local elections. Former Prime Minister David Cameron lost 236 local council seats a year before winning a majority in national elections. So what kind of seat-count might Theresa May be on course for on June 8?
Perhaps the key development on display in the local elections was the collapse of UKIP as an electoral force.
“What we’re now seeing is a mass movement of the 3.8 million UKIP voters at the last general election to the Theresa May column,” the Euroskeptic party’s ex-MP Douglas Carswell told POLITICO.
Former United Kingdom Independence Party MP Douglas Carswell | Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP via Getty Images
That could have huge ramifications at the general election. In nearly every seat where the Conservatives came second in 2015, the UKIP vote was partly to blame. Voters who might otherwise naturally vote Tory gravitated toward the party because Cameron and the Tory establishment didn’t look Euroskeptic enough. They have no such worries now.
Factor in a plunge in support for Labour under Jeremy Corbyn and predictions that May could be heading for a landslide show no sign of being disproved.
Senior Tories are playing down the results, conscious that over-hyping their gains could keep their vote at home on June 8.
“People will use it [local elections] as a barometer. I won’t,” party chairman Patrick McLoughlin said ahead of Friday’s results. “These are local elections and there will be many different factors in each campaign … as a Conservative Party we are not going to be complacent and take things for granted. We are going to work for this victory.”
What would the triumph of Theresa May’s new Conservatives — out UKIPing UKIP — mean for Brexit?
Paradoxically, there’s a chance it could lead to a more moderate exit deal than might otherwise have been the case. May was a Remainer, after all. She knows full well how damaging a cliff-edge exit would be. And if she delivers her landslide, she will have acres of political room to maneuver.
Paying a Brexit bill? Accepting a long transition period? Continued membership of certain EU agencies? Her party would struggle to say no to any of these, if they were delivered by the woman who helped them win so big.
2. Labour takes a beating
Finishing behind the Conservatives in the race to elect mayors in the West Midlands and the Tees Valley — both former strongholds. Losing overall control of Glasgow council for the first time in 40 years. Losing nearly 400 council seats nationwide.
Take your pick of the most damaging headline for the Labour Party, which is on course to take about 27 percent of the national vote share to the Tories’ 38 percent.
There were some points of light. The party’s support held up better than expected in Wales and former MPs Steve Rotheram and Andy Burnham triumphed in the mayoral races in Liverpool and Greater Manchester. These two new power bases — along with Sadiq Khan’s London — represent opportunities for Labour to show it can govern.
Former Labour cabinet minister Andy Burnham delivers a speech after being elected as Mayor of Greater Manchester in north west England, on May 5, 2017 | Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images
But these were foregone conclusions. An opposition party at this stage in the electoral cycle would, in normal circumstances, expect to be gaining hundreds of council seats — not losing them.
The recriminations against Corbyn, whom many candidates blame for their poor showing at the polls, have already begun.
“We can’t just put a spin on this,” Stephen Kinnock, the son of former party leader Neil Kinnock, who is standing for re-election as MP for Aberavon, told the BBC. “The fact of the matter is that Jeremy’s leadership does come up on the doorstep on a very regular basis.” He doesn’t mean in a good way.
3. Scotland’s counter-revolution
The unionist counter-revolution is underway — and it’s the Scottish Tories leading it.
It took years of painstaking, plodding work by Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson to remove the whiff of Thatcherism from the Tory brand. To make it socially acceptable.
But it needed a cause.
Nicola Sturgeon’s bid to hold a second independence referendum in the wake of last year’s U.K. vote to leave the EU has given Scottish Toryism that cause.
Under Davidson, the party has transformed itself into a viable alternative for the other half of Scotland — the 50 percent and more who have yet to be won over by the SNP.
It took years of painstaking, plodding work by Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson to remove the whiff of Thatcherism from the Tory brand.
Some of the results were symbolic — indicators of the underlying trend. Labour losing control of Glasgow while Tory candidates were elected in the city’s poorest eastern wards. The Tories winning their first ever seat in the Western Isles.
But the real story lay in the numbers. By 4 p.m. the Tories were the only party in Scotland to have gained seats — up by 164. Every other party was down — Labour by 133 seats and the SNP by 7.
John Nicolson, an SNP MP, gave a hint of the nationalist irritation at the results. “It was an absolutely vacuous campaign,” he said of the Tory bid to turn the contest into a referendum on the independence question. “It might be effective but it doesn’t reach the sunlit uplands does it?”
Former Scottish first minister Alex Salmond weighed in, saying the Conservatives had “eliminated UKIP by becoming UKIP.”
The Tory candidate in Glasgow’s east-end Shettleston ward, Thomas Kerr, put the other side. “When you stand as a candidate in the east end of Glasgow for the Conservative Party you don’t expect something like this to happen. They wanted to send a message to Nicola Sturgeon that they didn’t want a second referendum.”
4. UKIP wiped out
The signs of trouble for the UK Independence Party were there — but the scale of the local election defeat confounded even the worst expectations.
By lunchtime the party had failed to make a single gain. Its supporters watched helplessly as councilors who had swept into public office in 2013 on a wave of Euroskepticism and anti-immigration sentiment were toppled by the Tories.
UKIP leader Paul Nuttall tried to put a brave face on it.
“If the price of Britain leaving the EU is a Tory advance after taking up this patriotic cause, then it is the price UKIP is prepared to pay,” he said in a statement.
The party’s ambitions for June 8 have been curbed. It will target a group of seats where it is strong on the ground, Nuttall said. But even in UKIP heartlands, there was little to cheer for the once resurgent purple army.
“If the price of Britain leaving the EU is a Tory advance after taking up this patriotic cause, then it is the price UKIP is prepared to pay” — UKIP leader Paul Nuttall
The vote collapsed in Essex, Lincolnshire, Norfolk and Hampshire — all key battlegrounds for the party at the general election. The loss of a grassroots base and vital campaigning infrastructure should not be underestimated.
The party’s former MP Douglas Carswell gave a blunt assessment, tweeting: “It’s over.” He told POLITICO he saw little point in the party fielding candidates or campaigning for the general election.
5. Lib Dem revival fizzles
Friday began with disappointment for the centrist Liberal Democrats, who have bet the house on positioning themselves as the pro-EU party and a home for the 48 percent who voted Remain.
But despite recent gains in by-elections, nationwide they actually had a net loss of more than 30 seats, proving just as vulnerable to the Tory surge in some areas as Labour have been.
However, more detailed analysis of the results gave them some cause for optimism. Their national vote share is projected to be 18 percent, better than they are currently scoring in opinion polls and up seven percent on the 2015 general election — although they tend to do better in local elections than in nationals.
On a visit to heavily Remain area St Albans, where the party topped the polls and hopes to return an MP on June 8, leader Tim Farron predicted they could double their seat count in parliament if the local results were replicated. That would bring them to 18. Theresa May won’t be too worried.
5 takeaways from the UK local elections
DynamoEAR
All Star
Tories gonna win the General Election by 10-15 points
Theresa May might not get that majority
It's over @Big Boss
Labour gained 5%.
What if they get close to 40% by June 8?
Zee Scribe
Pro
Significance?
Labour gained 5%.
Inshallah but i think nearly impossible
If you are working or middle class and vote conservatives you should slap yourself.
Its pretty left wing, makes a lot of sense, protects their NHS, taxes the rich, popular with young people and its boosted Labour in the polls the last week or so...