What do you expect from next gen consoles in terms of graphics?

[Kuwka_Atcha_Ratcha]

people don't understand how fast things change

7 years ago facebook, twitter, iPhones, iPads, 4G wireless didn't exist......these all dominate our everydays lives today

its stupid to think we won't see just as much advancement in the next 7 years

exactly!

 

[Malta]

thats how exponentials works breh....its look like nothing is happening for a long time.....then BOOM outta nowhere epic leaps are made

this fact still remains true......in 97 the worlds fastest supercomputer was doing just 1 teraflop.......by 2013 a $400 console is doing 1 teraflop.......I don't think its a stretch to say that we can do that again in the next 10-15 years

1000x increase in computation from 97-2013......not crazy to say we can do another 1000 from 2013-2025......Ray Kurzweil and other experts in the field who have been right about the rate of increase in computation seem to believe so.

That is a roadmap for the GPUs, in 6 years there should be a bigger jump, right?

You expect a performance jump of around 4000-5000 times, since you said 5 petaflops would be realistic in 12 years. Why don't we go back in time 12 years to when the original Xbox came out

Xbox - 7.3 GFLOPs
Xbox 360 - 355 GFLOPS
Xbox 720 - 1.4 TFLOP

Where is the massive jump? In terms of raw computing power, the jump from OG Xbox to 360 is bigger than the jump from 360 to 720, even though there's more time between 360 and 720.

 

[Swagnificent]

That is a roadmap for the GPUs, in 6 years there should be a bigger jump, right?

You expect a performance jump of around 4000-5000 times, since you said 5 petaflops would be realistic in 12 years. Why don't we go back in time 12 years to when the original Xbox came out

Xbox - 7.3 GFLOPs
Xbox 360 - 355 GFLOPS
Xbox 720 - 1.4 TFLOP

Where is the massive jump? In terms of raw computing power, the jump from OG Xbox to 360 is bigger than the jump from 360 to 720, even though there's more time between 360 and 720.

so your argument is that because there wasn't a huge leap this time....there won't be one next time? maybe 5 petaflops in 12 years is a bit too much....but I definitely think 1 petaflop will be possible by 2025..........the reality is this......the rate of advancement in computation is INCREASING

peep this article: The Race to a Billion Billion Operations Per Second: An Exaflop by 2018? | Singularity Hub

The pace is blistering. Today’s top speed (16.3 petaflops) is 16 times faster than its counterpart four years ago (1.04 petaflops). And Oak Ridge National Laboratory is converting its ex-champion Cray Jaguar into the 20-petaflop Titan (operational later this year). It’s believed Titan’s capacity will be upwards of 35 petaflops.

But even at 35 petaflops, an exaflop (1,000 petaflops) seems distant. Is 2018 a realistic expectation? Sure, it’s plausible. It took 21 years to go from megaflops in 1964 (CDC 6600) to gigaflops in 1985 (Cray 2). But only 11 years to break the teraflop barrier in 1996 (ASCI Red). And just 12 years to enter petaflop territory in 2008 (Roadrunner).

Clocking an exaflop by 2018 would be a decade’s development—a record pace, but not too far outside the realm of reason. The below chart maps supercomputers as long as they’ve been officially ranked by Top500. Today’s pace puts processing power within range of an exaflop by 2018.

So by 2018 they expect the worlds fastest supercomputer to be 1000x more powerful than todays faster supercomputer. That would ALSO put the laptops of the early 2020s at 1000x the power of todays laptops.

Here is another article talking about what exaflop supercomputing means for us: Exaflop computing: Moore's Law isn't dead, It's Moved to Warp Speed | ZDNet

Beyond brute force computational applications, Exaflop and commodity Petaflop computing will almost certainly allow for the creation of intelligent robots and software agents, perhaps as brilliant as a trained circus dog, an advanced primate, a five year old child, or even more depending on advancements in computer learning.

It would allow for the real-time rendering of computer-generated imagery from today's biggest and most expensive Hollywood blockbuster films (or even better) in virtual reality or virtual worlds for the average citizen. These types of games and fully-immersive artificial realities would make the most advanced XBOX 360 or Playstation 3 first-person game look about as sophisticated as PONG.

Essentially, we're talking about the delivery of The Matrix as a commercial software product.

There are certainly other applications for commodity Petaflop and Exaflop supercomputing that people haven't even dreamed of yet. But I think we can say for sure that Moore's law hasn't run out -- instead It's been revised with a calculus that defies imagination.

By 2025, commodity petaflop computing will be a norm. Whether there will still be consoles taking advantage of that is up for debate. However, you can't deny that the raw computational power will be available to render photo-realistic graphics.

 

[Liquid]

these people to stupid for me, especially when the same shyt is said every generation. in 2005 people really believed HD wouldn't catch on and we would still be using DVD's

Just STFU

 

[daze23]

Crytek head says next-gen consoles 'impossibl - Video Game News, Videos and File Downloads for PC and Console Games at Shacknews.com

Crytek head says next-gen consoles 'impossible' to match PCs

As gamers prepare for their likely first glimpse of the next generation tomorrow, at least one executive is tempering expectations. Crytek CEO Cevat Yerli says it is "impossible" for the next-generation consoles to match high-end gaming PCs.

"Without breaking NDAs that are in place, realistically, from purely a price point perspective, it is impossible," Yerli told Eurogamer. "It's impossible to package $2000-3000 into a mainstream, let's say $500 console. I'm not saying they are $500 consoles. They may launch a console at $2000, but the consumer pricing is usually much lower than that." He further stated that Moore's Law dictates that hardware evolutions mean consoles launching in 2013, 2014, or even 2015 "will never beat a PC again."

The other issue at play is the PC culture, which Yerli says has grown more advanced and devoted to powerful gaming rigs. "If you look at PC gaming, that has changed also. The whole modular way you can design a PC today, with two, three or four graphics cards in them, and you can water cool them and overclock to infinity, that didn't exist even six or seven years ago. You just bought one or maybe two graphics cards and then you were super enthusiastic. It's very difficult to compete with that. People have these massive nuclear power plants standing in their rooms that will run your games really fast. It's hard to compete with."

If Yerli is right, Sony's presentation tomorrow may underwhelm some PC gamers who already own machines that outpace the future console.

 

[Kuwka_Atcha_Ratcha]

thing is... reality is... you can't compare graphics cards in consoles to those in pc's

 

[daze23]

thing is... reality is... you can't compare graphics cards in consoles to those in pc's

sure you can... reality is... the fact the console's a "closed system" isn't magic. it will give you slightly more bang for your buck, but not enough to compete with a high end machine

I guess we'll see (something) tomorrow...

 

[Kuwka_Atcha_Ratcha]

I guess we'll see (something) tomorrow...

 

[daze23]

 

[hex]

Feels so good to be right.

Fred.

 

[daze23]

Feels so good to be right.

Fred.

feels good to already be rockin next-gen graphics

 

[Swagnificent]

at that Killzone demo

looks like next gen is gonna be

when I first saw this I thought it looked just like CGI from the early 00s......something like we saw in Star Wars Episode 2.........and the amazing thing is this is just a launch title......we all saw how much PS3 graphics advanced for launch until today......if we get the same boost throughout the PS4 life-cycle we just might get graphics approaching Avatar quality by 2018 or so.

what on earth are the developers gonna be able to do with 8 GB of RAM considering what they were able to force outta 512 MB this gen

 

[Swagnificent]

If this face rendered by Quantic Dream really is possible on the PS4, then all bets are off in terms of photorealism coming sooner than expected.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ce9aKIZiArc"]PlayStation 4 Quantic Dream - 'Old Man' Tech Demo PlayStation Meeting 2013 - YouTube[/ame]

You can't watch this demo and tell me that isn't a QUANTUM LEAP from what we have had so far in terms of graphics. I thought tech like this would only be available in the 2020s but if the PS4 is able to render facial graphics as incredible as was shown today, then we might see Avatar quality games by the end of this gen in 2020. That would be MONUMENTAL!!!

this looks damn close to photorealism IMO

 

[hex]

If this face rendered by Quantic Dream really is possible on the PS4, then all bets are off in terms of photorealism coming sooner than expected.

PlayStation 4 Quantic Dream - 'Old Man' Tech Demo PlayStation Meeting 2013 - YouTube

You can't watch this demo and tell me that isn't a QUANTUM LEAP from what we have had so far in terms of graphics. I thought tech like this would only be available in the 2020s but if the PS4 is able to render facial graphics as incredible as was shown today, then we might see Avatar quality games by the end of this gen in 2020. That would be MONUMENTAL!!!

this looks damn close to photorealism IMO

The face looks good yes but it's just a face floating on an empty screen. It's not a game, there is no physics to worry about, or enemy AI, or environment, or collision detection, or anything, other than a face to render.

If you think a whole game is going to run looking like that you're in for disappointment.

Fred.

 

[Fatboi1]

The face looks good yes but it's just a face floating on an empty screen. It's not a game, there is no physics to worry about, or enemy AI, or environment, or collision detection, or anything, other than a face to render.

If you think a whole game is going to run looking like that you're in for disappointment.

Fred.

Why do you guys love to downplay console graphics??? It's already obvious closed box =/= PC.

All on PS3. I don't see the reason you guys are gloating about owning a top of the line PC when if these same games were to be played in true 1080P with some anti aliasing it would look insane. Y'all acting like these same games using ps4 hardware won't be impressive for it's hardware.