No they didn't. What were the odds and how did you come to the odds?
When Tampering w/ a Titan of Probabilities; The Bill Comes Due, Always | Bills @ Titans MNF
- Thread starter Trav
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No they didn't. What were the odds and how did you come to the odds?
Yes they did. See above.
mastermind
Rest In Power Kobe
The probability was probably wrong, but I liked the call.
In the context of that game the Titans were scoring quite easily on the Bills D. And Henry generally gets better as the game goes on. That's what you're not taking into account
Next Gen Stats say otherwise
I already addressed that.
Oh, don't you worry, I'm talking into account things that you haven't even thought about.
As I need to reiterate, the most-likely outcome of that drive was going to be a field-goal opportunity. The Bills were unlikely to score a touchdown on that drive; mathematically, and in terms of their actual play. Which means, whatever happens after that point is inconsequential, because both options lead to the same conditions of a tie-game. If something is most-likely to occur, then in this context, you take it when there's a higher probability of you been given the opportunity, and there's nothing greater than 100%.
It wasn't the right call. But they were okay with losing and they lost. 
Cards should be number one now in power rankings across the board. Thanks Bills for that dumbass call 
I don't care about points. I care about winning the game. Your problem is that you're only thinking one play ahead. Nothing in what you're saying analyzes into what was about to go down in overtime.
And making that first down doesn't win the game. Or do you seem to think getting the first down wins the game?
I wish y'all nxggas would stop it with this nonsense. Stop trying to project your lack of inability to see the entire picture onto me.
This is because you're not interpreting my post properly.
What happens in overtime is inconsequential. The most-likely outcome of that drive is a field goal opportunity, because all things considered, the Bills would've unlikely scored a touchdown. Which means, the Bills were most-likely going to come to a dead-end of needing to take a field goal on that drive, which means, they're still going to have to go to overtime, regardless.
This is why because the most-likely scenario was going to lead to a field-goal opportunity, you take that opportunity when it's at its highest probability, which was the initial play, because that opportunity was 100% guaranteed. Going for the first down on that play takes that 100% field goal opportunity away and the probability drops down to 75%>.
You simulate that drive 10x and the Bills score a touchdown around about three times (that's being generous given their lack of redzone success this season and in that game), and those aren't great enough odds when you're given a 100% opportunity of a field goal. 10 out of 10 times you'll be given a field goal opportunity in this simulation, but the probability either gets taken away completely if you don't make the first down (75% chance), or if you do make the first down it decreases with every down. Going for the first down was an unnecessary risk when they were most-likely going to need to take a field goal eventually.
How many other ways do I need to explain this before it's understood?
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Best case scenario for the AFC 
good shyt Tennessee. fukk y’all now tho 
good shyt Tennessee. fukk y’all now tho
Until you take overtime into account.
I suggest you read properly.
The fact you keep going on about what happens in overtime actually adds weight to my argument.
Cards should be number one now in power rankings across the board. Thanks Bills for that dumbass call
Bruh what is a power ranking gonna do, this ain’t college. Your team is undefeated that’s what matters
