The last time the NFL MVP came from a team that didn't win their division, it was Adrian Peterson in 2012.
For you mf's who aren't good at math, that was 13 years ago. And AD got his MVP off of dragging a mediocre team to the playoffs on the strength of a historically dominant season (second most rushing yards ever).
The last time it happened before that, was Air McNair's co-MVP with Manning in '03 on a 12-win Titans squad.
For the mathematically challenged, that was 22 years ago.
The last time before that, was the greatest running back ever winning MVP on a 10-win second place team in 2000, but that's a clear outlier, its the greatest running back ever on what is widely considered one of the 3 greatest offenses ever.
So basically, for the guys bad at math, in the last 25 years, only 3x has the MVP come from a team that didn't win their division, and 2 of those 3 times happened over 20 years ago, and the third time was over a dozen years ago.
So I just gave you your template, fellas: the MVP is coming from a team that wins their division. 88% chance I'm right, according to the last quarter century of football.
So the tread is asking me who are my top MVP candidates right now, here are your current division leaders:
Colts, Patriots, Broncos, Steelers
Eagles, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Packers
So with this, my vote right now would go:
1 Johnathan Taylor
2 Sam Darnold
3 Baker Mayfield
The standings will obviously change some by the end of the year, but this is how I'd vote it right now. And look, the only way I'm considering someone from a 2nd-place team;
(which are the Bills, Chargers, Jaguars, Ravens; and Rams, Lions, Panthers, Cowboys, at present);
Is if we are watching arguably the greatest player ever at their position dominating, or if we are watching someone having a historically legendary season.
Lamar starts winning titles he has a chance to go down as the greatest player ever, but his team is not even in the playoff field right now. He's the only guy playing (besides Mahomes) who even has "greatest player at his position ever" potential.
Allen and Stafford are having great years but these aren't historically great QB years. For reference of what a historically iconic QB season looks like, go back to '18 Mahomes, or '13 Manning, or '07 Brady, or '99 Warner, etc.
We are watching those two have really strong seasons, and arguably the best Stafford year of his career, but this is not some iconic QB run by him. There is another Mahomes year and a Rodgers year or two I'm blanking on at the moment, too.
Padford is having a great year but he ain't having the kinda year he should win it if the Rams finish in 2nd place.
Now, if the Rams win the division and he keeps this play up, my mind can change. As it stands, for me, he's not in the conversation based on the criteria i outlined in this post.
Taylor has a chance if he threatens the rushing or TD record and the Colts win the 1-seed (they are obviously winning that division).
