It was a question. I didn't know Russia outpaced the US in nukes.
I'm an objective observer so I'm not pro or against any side
War is interesting to many people. There seems to be many war enthusiast on this forum so I find the discussions enlightening.
The thing about nukes is they come in many forms; bombs, rockets, mobile launched, submarine launched, and they all require significant periodic maintenance on them. They just don't always fire because you pushed the button after it sitting for years.
Its been theorized Russia built more nukes and bigger nukes because their weapons weren't the most accurate. I'm not saying I want to call Russia's bluff, but I'd venture to say they don't have 6,200 instantly operable nukes. You only need a couple hundred to really prove your point. They're more of a deterrent than anything.
My POV has shifted in this conflict. I initially didn't think the US should support Ukraine, but as I read more of the history of their strife and the more I applied that to the history of the world War 1 and 2, there is no scenario where Russia stops at Ukraine. NATO expansion is/was a concern, but it's not like NATO was actively spending money on any semblance of a military to threaten Russia. Not to bring Trump into it, but this was Trump's major issue with NATO, the US was putting up all the money and he was getting tired of that. Part me thinks Putin's plan was Trump gets reelected, pulls out of NATO, and because NATO had their thumb up their asses for years, Ukraine, Moldova, eventually Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania get annexed and fold back into Russia.
Russia's demography necessitates that they have to expand their borders because their population is aging out drastically. Russia as we know it is not going to be Russia in 30 years. It's not going to be able to stay as this one giant country with a dwindling and aging population for much longer.
Now with this invasion multiple things have happened that only further put Russia at a disadvantage:
- Ukraine's resolve is on a bean and they'll never be able to take it with any semblance of infrastructure or population left.
- NATO is expanded again and they are actually throwing money up.
- Germany and a bunch of EU countries are moving back to coal reducing their need for Russian oil.
- Russia lost most of their trading partners from outside Russia and not only will they get back to any kind of superpower status, they'll be a failed state.
- They're conscripting anyone of an age of that will even keep the population going. This war is only going accelerate their downfall.
- Russia's military will take years if not decades to get back to where it was just January of last year.
- And potentially most consequential of all, I can see a scenario where more Russian states break away if the economy continuously collapses.
So Ukraine doesn't have to win, they just both will lose in this scenario.