Abiy Ahmed Ali, 41, sworn-in as Ethiopia's Prime Minister

[FAH1223]

Not proven, this is speculation based on the region's geology.

To date nothing has been discovered, and there is barely any ongoing exploration because a) Oil prices remain relatively low 2) The political risk doesnt justify the investments, even in relatively stable parts of Somalia/SL/PL where there is zero agreement on territorial boundaries.

Look at Kenya which only just started extracting oil last month, after a much longer history of exploration. Its already facing problems too: Britain's Tullow says Kenyan protesters block oil trucks Im sure potentially interested parties see that, and project much greater risk in Somalia.

There was exploration in the 1960s... then Siad Barre came which halted that

 

[thatrapsfan]

There was exploration in the 1960s... then Siad Barre came which halted that

I know, they had some promising geological surveys, but did not get far enough in their exploration - I have relatives who were working on this with Conoco past the 60s but it was at a smaller scale.


Somalia's political situation doesnt suggest we are any closer to resuming serious exploration and we cant rely on foreign backers for that either (whether the Gulf or Turkey). Oil exploration is very much a private sector endeavour, and still mainly a Western expertise (The Chinese would be a potential other option, but their involvement in Somalia remains very minimal)

 

[FAH1223]

I know, they had some promising geological surveys, but did not get far enough in their exploration - I have relatives who were working on this with Conoco past the 60s but it was at a smaller scale.


Somalia's political situation doesnt suggest we are any closer to resuming serious exploration and we cant rely on foreign backers for that either (whether the Gulf or Turkey). Oil exploration is very much a private sector endeavour, and still mainly a Western expertise (The Chinese would be a potential other option, but their involvement in Somalia remains very minimal)

Warya

My awowe was too

 

[JDH]

Not proven, this is speculation based on the region's geology.

To date nothing has been discovered, and there is barely any ongoing exploration because a) Oil prices remain relatively low 2) The political risk doesnt justify the investments, even in relatively stable parts of Somalia/SL/PL where there is zero agreement on territorial boundaries.

Look at Kenya which only just started extracting oil last month, after a much longer history of exploration. Its already facing problems too: Britain's Tullow says Kenyan protesters block oil trucks Im sure potentially interested parties see that, and project much greater risk in Somalia.

Didnt they just start to extract oil in Ogaden?

 

[thatrapsfan]

Didnt they just start to extract oil in Ogaden?

Yep last month. Exploration there started over a decade ago - its a Chinese project - and Ethiopia and its donors spent tons on security onregional forces ( and previously their own military) to protect that project after this: Ethnic Somali rebels kill 74 at Chinese oilfield in Ethiopia

Ethiopia's authortarian security structure was able to "pacify" the region to ensure the project moved forward unabated, but I dont see this being possible in Somalia at its current state. Many competing actors, but no one has a true monopoly on violence in areas where oil blocks are speculated to be.

 

[FAH1223]