1 BTC = $8.2k, it’s up 735% this yr UPDATE 5/19: BTC @ $42k :damn:

[GrindtooFilthy]

No, the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) is where institutions trade BTC Futures. Futures trading is what fuels all this volatility in the market, for which reason weekend price action is all but dead. CME closes on Friday at 5:00p.m. EST and reopens on Sunday at 6:00p.m. EST. The CME gap is the price difference between the price of BTC at close (Friday) and its trading price at reopen (Sunday) because we (retail) trade 24/7 but CME (institutions) does not. The majority of CME gaps (90%+) end up getting filled.

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2 weekly candle closes (weekly closes occur every Sunday 8:00p.m. EST) below the 50W SMA (currently sitting at $101.77k) have confirmed the end of all past bull markets but prior to that there is always a cycle-end bull trap after retracement from ATH that leads into a lower high. That is what I’m actually looking for before exiting my position.
Are you in the (crypto) Coli Discord? Check my post from last night and this morning, with charts showing in detail how it works. If not, I can repost them here, let me know.

I'm in the chat and I saw the chart, sorry for all the questions I've been MIA for awhile but if I understand correctly, you're looking for the 2nd lowest position from the ATH to make your exist correct? Which marks the end of the bull cycle correct? If so isn't that usually around the end of the fiscal year for most companies which is usually October/November? iirc some in this thread did say around the fall season is usually when you should make your exit for profit

 

[Gloxina]

I'm in the chat and I saw the chart, sorry for all the questions I've been MIA for awhile but if I understand correctly, you're looking for the 2nd lowest position from the ATH to make your exist correct? Which marks the end of the bull cycle correct? If so isn't that usually around the end of the fiscal year for most companies which is usually October/November? iirc some in this thread did say around the fall season is usually when you should make your exit for profit

Are you solely focused on BTC?

 

[Koichos]

I'm in the chat and I saw the chart, sorry for all the questions I've been MIA for awhile but if I understand correctly, you're looking for the 2nd lowest position from the ATH to make your exist correct?

As bearish as sentiment is right now, I don’t expect October 6’s $126k to have been the top for this cycle. But, ATH is only realized in hindsight, so it is possible. Now, if we have a quick rally back up and reject before ATH, then yeah, I’ll be cutting it. I’m already up 8x, why give it back waiting for an end-cycle confirmation close below $102k?

Which marks the end of the bull cycle correct?

The actual confirmation would be two weekly closes below the 50W SMA, bitcoin’s average closing price over the last 50 weeks, which is currently at $101,770. But! in all past bull markets, this has always been preceded by a kind of ‘last hurrah’ lower-high rally that rejects before ATH. You pays your money and takes your choice, as they say.

If so isn't that usually around the end of the fiscal year for most companies which is usually October/November? iirc some in this thread did say around the fall season is usually when you should make your exit for profit

2013 BTC top: November
2017 BTC top: December
2021 BTC top: November

2014 BTC bottom: December
2018 BTC bottom: December
2022 BTC bottom: November

BTC tops in Q4 of post-halving years and bottoms Q4 of the following year. Could this cycle be different? Sure, but it’d have to prove it, and I don’t care to wait around for it.

 

[Koichos]

BTC is back to $109k, but now we’ve left a CME gap between $107k (Friday’s close, 5:00p.m. EST) and however high we get before it opens (today at 6:00p.m. EST).

BTC came down to $107,400 before reversal. Asia’s market makers (8:30p.m. EST) might be content. CME Futures closed at $107,220 but it’s within the margin of error.

 

[ORDER_66]

$Fet on a tear today... that's nice

 

[Gloxina]

$Fet on a tear today... that's nice

11%

Everything’s been up like 2% or so

 

[GrindtooFilthy]

Are you solely focused on BTC?

ETH, XRP, HBAR, XLM, SHIB and a few other alts

As bearish as sentiment is right now, I don’t expect October 6’s $126k to have been the top for this cycle. But, ATH is only realized in hindsight, so it is possible. Now, if we have a quick rally back up and reject before ATH, then yeah, I’ll be cutting it. I’m already up 8x, why give it back waiting for an end-cycle confirmation close below $102k?


The actual confirmation would be two weekly closes below the 50W SMA, bitcoin’s average closing price over the last 50 weeks, which is currently at $101,770. But! in all past bull markets, this has always been preceded by a kind of ‘last hurrah’ lower-high rally that rejects before ATH. You pays your money and takes your choice, as they say.


2013 BTC top: November
2017 BTC top: December
2021 BTC top: November

2014 BTC bottom: December
2018 BTC bottom: December
2022 BTC bottom: November

BTC tops in Q4 of post-halving years and bottoms Q4 of the following year. Could this cycle be different? Sure, but it’d have to prove it, and I don’t care to wait around for it.

Ok calm, I see where your going with this

 

[Koichos]

ETH, XRP, HBAR, XLM, SHIB and a few other alts

Oh, I didn’t realize you were in alts. It’s a rotational play and I don’t think BTC has even had its fill yet. BTC tops, then ETH tops, then alts top.

Ok calm, I see where your going with this

I had to look that up, thought you were telling me to calm down.

 

[Gloxina]

Oh, I didn’t realize you were in alts. It’s a rotational play and I don’t think BTC has even had its fill yet. BTC tops, then ETH tops, then alts top.


I had to look that up, thought you were telling me to calm down.

Right.

That’s why I asked him if he’s only concerned with BTC because alts haven’t had their time in the sun yet.

 

[Gloxina]

 

[Koichos]

BTC came down to $107,400 before reversal. Asia’s market makers (8:30p.m. EST) might be content. CME Futures closed at $107,220 but it’s within the margin of error.

Now at $110,300 looking healthy.

 

[In The Zone '98]

Federal Reserve to Hold Conference on Bitcoin, Digital Assets, and Crypto Payments

The Federal Reserve will host a payments innovation conference on Oct. 21, 2025, focused on crypto payments, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.

coinedition.com

The U.S. Federal Reserve will host a payments innovation conference tomorrow, Tuesday, October 21, in Washington, D.C. The event will bring together regulators, financial executives, and crypto-industry leaders.
It aims to explore how digital assets, artificial intelligence, and tokenization are transforming the global payments ecosystem.

XRP / RLUSD News: Ripple and Kraken Back SPAC Aiming to Build $1B Public XRP Treasury

A SPAC, a new ticker and open-market XRP buys — see who’s backing it and what comes next.

www.coindesk.com

Evernorth pitches itself as a public vehicle that offers simple exposure to XRP while actively seeking to grow xrp per share over time. Rather than track the asset passively, the company says it plans to lend to institutions, provide liquidity and participate in decentralized-finance strategies to generate yield.

 

[ORDER_66]

coinbase is cooked today cause of the aws crash

 

[Gloxina]

Federal Reserve to Hold Conference on Bitcoin, Digital Assets, and Crypto Payments

The Federal Reserve will host a payments innovation conference on Oct. 21, 2025, focused on crypto payments, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.

coinedition.com

XRP / RLUSD News: Ripple and Kraken Back SPAC Aiming to Build $1B Public XRP Treasury

A SPAC, a new ticker and open-market XRP buys — see who’s backing it and what comes next.

www.coindesk.com

Literally just listening to AllinCrypto speak about “Evernorth” right now

 

[Gloxina]