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Biden Re-Takes Lead Over Warren in Polling Average, Surges with Black Voters in New Poll

By Tommy ChristopherOct 10th, 2019, 9:18 am

Biden Re-Takes Lead Over Warren in Polling Average, Surges with Black Voters in New Poll


Biden-Warren.jpg



Former Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has re-taken a slim lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average — which he briefly lost to Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren — and surged significantly with black voters in the most recent poll considered.

On Tuesday, Warren took the lead in the RCP average for the first time, 26.6 percent to Biden’s 26.4, but two days later Biden is back in the lead by a .2 percent margin. That’s because of a new Economist/YouGov poll that still shows Warren leading, but in which Biden improved on his performance since the last time the poll was taken.

Overall, Warren leads Biden in that poll 29 percent to Biden’s 25, but that result is tighter than the 28-22 percent margin from last week’s Economist/YouGov poll. That’s not the most auspicious way to retake a lead, but it beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

The good news for Biden in this poll is that he surged six points with black voters, from 36 percent to 42 percent, increasing his dominance with a key Democratic constituency. He also gained two points each with white and Hispanic voters. Warren was steady with black voters at 15 percent, but she gained 4 points with Hispanic voters and three points with whites.

California Senator Kamala Harris’ overall support in this poll was flat at 5 percent, but she ticked up two points with black voters and five points with Hispanic voters, while losing one point with whites.

There’s a bit of good news for Bernie Sanders, who only lost one point in this poll, and has seen his RCP average tick slightly up since his heart attack last week.

Warren has significant momentum nationally, and has seen her support double since July, but she’s only gained five points with black voters since then. The Democratic primary calendar gives outsize influence to predominantly white states like Iowa and New Hampshire, but a diverse coalition is crucial to the success of the party’s primary candidates. Warren leads the RCP average in Iowa, but trails Biden in every other state that the site is tracking.

Conversely, Biden’s overall support is the same as it was in July, while he has continued to gain with black voters. But Warren’s surge nationally has garnered a lot of positive media coverage, which is a huge advantage in the era of earned media. Both campaigns should pay attention to these trends, as should the rest of the field.
 

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A.R.$

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Yeah, that's fair.



The fact that Bernie believes there are better solutions is exactly why a commission and a study is required, which is to say that he fully supports HR 40.

The belief that he would ignore those conclusions or push the committee to ignore potential solutions is a fear that warrants mentioning; but it's pure speculation...I equate that sort of speculation to people feeling Warren doesn't really support M4A because of some questionable rhetoric. Just because Warren has expressed being open to hearing other solutions and her campaign manager has said Bernie's fully written out bill is a framework; I can look back at her record and her comments on other issues to come away confident that she'll make the most practical choice when push comes to shove. I feel the same way for Bernie. That's why I leave the silo of reparations and explore the rest of his rhetoric with regards to the PoC. He's spoken on systemic racism with regards to the prison system and housing; he's proposing increased funds to HBCU's and spoken openly about pumping more funding to black owned businesses and banks. He talks the talk on all of those issues, so I trust that if HR 40's study concluded with cash payments as the best solution; he would be willing to move from his stance that there are better solutions to income inequality.



Out of curiosity, how do you define reparations and what would constitutes markers of a successful reparations program (as in what measurables would you be watching for)? I hear everything you're saying and agree with all of it. But I think acknowledging the wrong doing and taking active steps to reverse it absolutely exists in Bernie's responses with or without him co-signing cash payments when he speaks on redlining, the prison industrial complex, discriminatory lending practices to people of color. Those answers are what I keep coming back to and thinking, "he recognizes the problems and has ideas for how to address them."
I’m open to different ideas. I define reparations as a non universal policy meant to address historic economic sabotage/discrimination levied against people of majority African decent through slavey, Jim Crow, Cointelpro, the war on drugs and the prison industrial complex.

For example, Warren and Harris have Redlining proposals. I wouldn’t consider this reparations unless it is apart of a bigger package. It is just good policy. I don’t consider criminal justice reform reparations.

Now what you basically asking me is what non monetary payment would I accept as reparations. I would consider a combination of business education, business grants for both existing and start up Black business. I would say I would accept some type of job training programs, but it might not be necessary with tuition free college. But if it something more direct it might still work. It doesn’t have did specifically what I just mentioned, but I think you get the idea of what i’m talking about.
 

A.R.$

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:ehh:I fukks with Gillum. I do think it is a foreign policy weakness in this ticket, but It still not a bad idea. They would just need to have a counterattack prepared for the corruption allegations that Trump will try to place on him. Plus have a plan ready for all the dog whistles that are going to happen.
 
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