The
New York Jets had a quality defense last season. They have two very good veteran receivers in
Brandon Marshall and
Eric Decker. They have a promising tight end,
Jace Amaro, coming back from a lost season. This would all make Jets fans feel pretty good if the quarterback situation didn't seem like a complete disaster.
The Jets and the team's starting quarterback last season, Ryan Fitzpatrick, have been dancing around contact terms for months. But as of now, Fitzpatrick remains a free agent, even though
he says he wants to come back. Once a mediocre backup, Fitzpatrick has put up the best performances of his career in the past two seasons. He would be a colossal upgrade over the quarterbacks left on the Jets' roster.
Geno Smith was awful in his first two seasons and apparently
lost the Jets' locker room before he lost his job last season. The selection of
Christian Hackenberg in the second round was roundly disparaged by Draft Twitter. Third-stringer
Bryce Petty didn't even understand how NFL defenses work when he was drafted out of Baylor last year. Jets fans lament: This has got to be the worst depth chart any team has had at the position in years.
Actually, it's not.
I went through rosters from the past 10 years, looking at where each NFL team's quarterback depth chart stood at the beginning of the season. And it's remarkable just how many really awful quarterback situations there have been.
Here are the 10 worst since 2007 based on what we knew about the players at the time. Veterans were judged by their recent performance in advanced stats, including ESPN's Total QBR and Football Outsiders' DYAR and DVOA (
explained here). Young players from the first three rounds were judged by
Football Outsiders' QBASE projections if they were chosen in the top 100 picks, and draft position if they were taken later.
5. 2016 New York Jets
Geno Smith / Christian Hackenberg / Bryce Petty
It isn't impossible to imagine that Geno Smith could resurrect his career and become a quality NFL starting quarterback. He did manage one good game in 2015, with 66.2 QBR against an underrated Oakland defense when he came in to replace an injured Fitzpatrick. He was amazing in Week 17 of 2014, completing 20 of 25 passes for 358 yards with 94.0 QBR against Miami. On the other hand, scroll up and read about Matt Flynn again, then ask yourself how much we can really learn from a single great game in Week 17.
Smith had 38.6 QBR in 2013 and 44.3 QBR in 2014. According to Football Outsiders' DYAR metric, he was below replacement level in both seasons. Since 1989, only one quarterback has been below replacement level with at least 200 pass attempts in both of his first two seasons and then developed into a quality NFL starter: Troy Aikman in 1989-1990.
If the Jets don't re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick, Smith will face a challenge in training camp from second-round pick Christian Hackenberg. But there's a reason so many people made fun of the Jets' selection of Hackenberg: Given the bubble screen-heavy structure of today's college offenses, a quarterback who completes 56 percent of his passes in college is simply not a good NFL prospect. Hackenberg's QBASE of minus-409 is tied for the fifth-worst out of any top 100-drafted quarterback since 1998.
Behind Hackenberg is Bryce Petty. Officially, only quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 get QBASE projections, and Petty was chosen 103rd overall in 2015. If he had a QBASE, it would have been minus-291.