No, predictions are not the same as talent evaluation.
But they're closely linked. And when it comes to evaluating talent, the entire point is to project how they might perform at the pro level. So when you're sitting here patting yourself on the back because Josh Allen dinked and dunked his way down the field 46 times against the single worst team in the league, you're clearly ignoring a lot of context.
With regard to Baker Mayfield, let's keep things clear. You claiming Mayfield would be a bust wasn't exactly some out of the way bold call.
Mayfield projected better than that bum Cleveland had in Manziel, but Mayfield was still an undersized, standing way back in a shotgun formation, not super athletic quarterback who should have realistically gone in the 3rd or 4th round as a project.
Baker's problems are not mechanically driven but rather the fact that he's slow to process information at the highest level. Over his 2 years in the league he's continuously ranked near the bottom in time to throw.
But you're not here specifying why Baker's struggling. You're just saying "he's gonna be a bust"...."he doesn't have the tools"....upping the thread saying "see, he's a bust" and that's it.
So where's the evaluation coming in?
The problem isn't that Baker can't run like Lamar Jackson. That's not holding him back, plenty of QBs in the league don't run. The problem isn't that Baker has a weak arm. His arm strength is fine.
The only tool Baker lacks is the one between his ears.