Coronavirus Thread: Worldwide Pandemic

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This thread :merchant:


In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we
would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In
such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be
infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of
surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and
to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B) than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB
is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an
unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on
mortality.

It's a study but 2 million deaths seems way off to me.
 
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MIKE SPLEAN

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This thread :merchant:

More fear mongering

this shyt is trump impeachment thread all over again

a bunch of no name with tweets used as the gospel add a bunch on sensationalism and you got a news cycle making its daily quota

look for facts not speculation and simulations :mjlol:
 
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