Do you think Trump will win Michigan again?

[Formerly Black Trash]

Obama dropped from a 7-point win to a 1.5-point win and that was with Romney running an awful campaign with a joke of a VP.

Bush only won by a single state (flip Ohio's 2% victory and he loses) and that's with 9/11 sentiments still carrying him and Iraq War not quite having turned into a disaster yet.




The Democratic Party has never been united. 15% of Clinton voters switched sides and went for McCain in 2008, and people have estimated that racism cost Obama something like 6% of his voters....and he still won in a landslide. The demographics are even better for the dems now than they were then.

The demographics overwhelmingly favor the Democrats, they can drop multiple groups and still win just so long as they get turnout. Sanders polls fantastic among independents and young people and has huge energy among his base, if he gets the nomination that energy is going to carry him even if some fence-sitting dems jump off. Biden is considered a "safe" bet by conservative and old dems, if he gets the nomination he'll win due to his margin among traditional voters along even if the young people and liberals stay home. Warren is a tougher one, I think if she runs it's likely a toss-up, but she's not an automatic L.

And I don't know why you're stressing VPs, they don't matter like you think they do. Sanders would be dumb to pick a conservative VP to "unite the party" cause no one sitting home for Sanders is gonna be switched on by his VP. Sanders is undoubtedly gonna pick a younger woman, and women are suddenly gonna remember that we STILL have not had a female VP in this country even if they ain't getting a female prez with him.

Warren has no swag at all

Just completely swagless
Smh

 

[the cac mamba]

The's self-defeatist comments claiming Trump will win no matter what blow my mind.

In 2016 Trump was running against one of the least liked Democrats ever, who ran a terrible campaign, a ton of people stayed home, and he still won by such tight margins that it was a complete toss-up on election day and shyt like the weather on the lakes might have decided the race.

Since then there is very little evidence that Trump has increased his base, the Democrats are more invigorated, their candidate will be better liked, and y'all forget that every four years that go by is four years of more old white people dying and young black and brown people turning 18.

There's not any margin for complacency, but Trump is definitely the underdog in 2020. .

i wouldnt go that far. not with this economy/stock market, and not given the dems' lineup of candidates

i mean think about it, if trump wasn't human garbage we wouldnt even be talking about him getting re-elected it would be a certainty

personally i really cant fukkin call it barring a stock market crash, im 50/50 on biden and about 52-48 trump if it's bernie

 

[jilla82]

Obama dropped from a 7-point win to a 1.5-point win and that was with Romney running an awful campaign with a joke of a VP.

Bush only won by a single state (flip Ohio's 2% victory and he loses) and that's with 9/11 sentiments still carrying him and Iraq War not quite having turned into a disaster yet.




The Democratic Party has never been united. 15% of Clinton voters switched sides and went for McCain in 2008, and people have estimated that racism cost Obama something like 6% of his voters....and he still won in a landslide. The demographics are even better for the dems now than they were then.

The demographics overwhelmingly favor the Democrats, they can drop multiple groups and still win just so long as they get turnout. Sanders polls fantastic among independents and young people and has huge energy among his base, if he gets the nomination that energy is going to carry him even if some fence-sitting dems jump off. Biden is considered a "safe" bet by conservative and old dems, if he gets the nomination he'll win due to his margin among traditional voters along even if the young people and liberals stay home. Warren is a tougher one, I think if she runs it's likely a toss-up, but she's not an automatic L.

And I don't know why you're stressing VPs, they don't matter like you think they do. Sanders would be dumb to pick a conservative VP to "unite the party" cause no one sitting home for Sanders is gonna be switched on by his VP. Sanders is undoubtedly gonna pick a younger woman, and women are suddenly gonna remember that we STILL have not had a female VP in this country even if they ain't getting a female prez with him.

like in sports, the only thing that matter is the W.

Trump is white Obama.
Neither had any experience...drastically different from what people are used to, and hated on unseen levels by the other party.

 

[the cac mamba]

What makes you think Biden (or whoever) won't be as disliked as Hillary by November?

.

because he doesnt have to deal with sexism

 

[the cac mamba]

I don’t trust the average American to vote in their best interest

we have to accept that plenty of people are doing better under trump

if you were doing good at the end of obama's term, i would almost guarantee that you're doing as good or better now. would you agree?

i know i am, personally. and i don't give trump credit for it, but to say otherwise is a denial of reality. i bet plenty of dudes in HL are too, even if they dont want to admit it

 

[Professor Emeritus]

What makes you think Biden (or whoever) won't be as disliked as Hillary by November?

Once they know who will win, the right is going to go full-stop on attacks. Let's not forget Hillary was popular once upon a time.

You can't replicate 20+ years of hate in a single campaign. Clinton's unfavorable ratings were around 40% or so practically her entire public career, only veering down briefly when she caught stray good vibes for being Obama's SecState and then shooting back up when she ran for president even before she won the nomination. She was one of the most unpopular politicians in the country long before 2016. And the ones who hated her REALLY hated her, with just incredible venom.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

I think Trump is going to win Wisconsin, lose Michigan and Pennsylvania is too tough to call.

Where do you get that?

The latest FOX polls show Sanders and Biden each up 4-5% in Wisconsin against Trump. Marquette Law has the race closer but both still have Bernie and Biden leading and their margins increased since last month. Of the 9 total times that anyone has polled Wisconsin, Biden beat Trump in 8 out of 9 and Bernie beat Trump in 7 out of 9, with the only losses back 2+ months ago and within the margin of error.

In 2018 a Trump-loyal Republican incumbent got beat out for governor in Wisconsin by a no-name liberal Democrat. And in the House races Dems won 53% of the votes to only 46% for the Republicans.

FoxConn, the big Trump/Republican project in Wisconsin, continues to be a disaster.

I don't know why some of y'all are stressing Wisconsin like that. It's tougher than Michigan/Pennsylvania but everything still completely favors it for the Dems.

 

[NaijaProdigy Redux]

we have to accept that plenty of people are doing better under trump

if you were doing good at the end of obama's term, i would almost guarantee that you're doing as good or better now. would you agree?

i know i am, personally. and i don't give trump credit for it, but to say otherwise is a denial of reality. i bet plenty of dudes in HL are too, even if they dont want to admit it

I’ve done very well under the Obama and Trump Presidency, but I have the resources to participate in the stock market boom and appreciation in real estate value seen over the last decade.

I’d argue there are plenty of individuals that haven’t benefited from the last decade of economic prosperity. The wealth disparity has increased and this period of wealth creation is fairly concentrated.

What I’d love to see is a stat on the number of people dealing stagnant wages, rising childcare costs and crippling debt that vote against their interests.

What amuses me at times is Trump’s economic policies benefit me the “East Coast liberal” way more than it will ever benefit Joe Shmoe the Midwest Farmer

 

[rapbeats]

It could go either way.

Going by polls Trump should lose, but we saw how much polls mean in 2016. A lot of Trump voters lie to pollsters.


I'm most worried about Wisconsin though. That one is basically a tossup.

incorrect. polls for different things say different things about who's polled and what questions were asked.

The dems ignored the fact that Sanders was spanking trump in every swing state. hilary was losing or tying. that was the issue.

 

[rapbeats]

i wouldnt go that far. not with this economy/stock market, and not given the dems' lineup of candidates

i mean think about it, if trump wasn't human garbage we wouldnt even be talking about him getting re-elected it would be a certainty

personally i really cant fukkin call it barring a stock market crash, im 50/50 on biden and about 52-48 trump if it's bernie

most of the poor whites arent even looking at the stock market nor the GDP. that aint touching them or their lives.

if the dems go with bernie. they will win by a landslide. if they dont, its a toss up at best.

 

[FAH1223]

Where do you get that?

The latest FOX polls show Sanders and Biden each up 4-5% in Wisconsin against Trump. Marquette Law has the race closer but both still have Bernie and Biden leading and their margins increased since last month. Of the 9 total times that anyone has polled Wisconsin, Biden beat Trump in 8 out of 9 and Bernie beat Trump in 7 out of 9, with the only losses back 2+ months ago and within the margin of error.

In 2018 a Trump-loyal Republican incumbent got beat out for governor in Wisconsin by a no-name liberal Democrat. And in the House races Dems won 53% of the votes to only 46% for the Republicans.

FoxConn, the big Trump/Republican project in Wisconsin, continues to be a disaster.

I don't know why some of y'all are stressing Wisconsin like that. It's tougher than Michigan/Pennsylvania but everything still completely favors it for the Dems.

Ben Wikler is now the Chair of the Dem Party in Wisconsin and he is putting in that work. He's a good dude, used to work at MoveOn here in DC.

Tammy Baldwin also has the secret sauce to winning Wisconsin... Dems need to have her on the trail too.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Ben Wikler is now the Chair of the Dem Party in Wisconsin and he is putting in that work. He's a good dude, used to work at MoveOn here in DC.

Tammy Baldwin also has the secret sauce to winning Wisconsin... Dems need to have her on the trail too.

You think there's any legitimacy to the rumors of Baldwin as the VP candidate? If you were running with @the cac mamba's "Just campaign in 5 states" idea, she's probably the leading choice.

 

[FAH1223]

You think there's any legitimacy to the rumors of Baldwin as the VP candidate? If you were running with @the cac mamba's "Just campaign in 5 states" idea, she's probably the leading choice.

I believe so but the issue is that Wisconsin has a special election (Gov doesn't appoint a temp) so its a wild card... you don't want to lose that seat either.

 

[the cac mamba]

You think there's any legitimacy to the rumors of Baldwin as the VP candidate? If you were running with @the cac mamba's "Just campaign in 5 states" idea, she's probably the leading choice.

woman senator from wisconsin? could make a worse choice

i think flipping that white women 53% is possible. frankly that could have been what won trump the election in these fukkin swing states

 

[Json]

In 2018 a Trump-loyal Republican incumbent got beat out for governor in Wisconsin by a no-name liberal Democrat. And in the House races Dems won 53% of the votes to only 46% for the Republicans.

FoxConn, the big Trump/Republican project in Wisconsin, continues to be a disaster.

I don't know why some of y'all are stressing Wisconsin like that. It's tougher than Michigan/Pennsylvania but everything still completely favors it for the Dems.

Republicans don’t have a major problem voting for local officials from both parties as long as you are the right kind from both parties.

A conservative Democrat in Louisiana has a good a shot as a Republican in local levels.

Nationally they will screw Democrats.