FiveThirtyEight NBA 2022-2023 projections -- looks like the Rockets might get Wembanyama

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I'm giving the people reference to their predictions last season. Context matters.
People see a projection and think "this is going to happen". Like it's THIS PARTICULAR number.

And in reality what a projection is (typically anyway) is the median outcome of a series of simulations.
 

charknicks

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The top 3 teams have the same odds of getting #1 so no need to completely tank.

2022 Draft order and odds
TEAMRECORDWIN%LOTTERY PROBABILITY
Houston20-620.24414.00%
Orlando22-600.26814.00%
Detroit23-590.2814.00%
Oklahoma City24-580.29312.50%
Indiana25-570.30510.50%
Portland27-550.3299.00%
Sacramento30-520.3667.50%
Los Angeles Lakers^33-490.4026.00%
San Antonio34-480.4154.50%
Washington35-470.4273.00%
New York37-450.4512.00%
LA Clippers (to OKC)42-400.5121.50%
Charlotte43-390.5241.00%
Cleveland44-380.5370.50%
^ This pick will be conveyed either to New Orleans, or to Memphis via New Orleans (more).

WHAT ARE THE ODDS FOR EACH TEAM IN THE DRAFT LOTTERY?

The changes implemented for 2021 will result in the following odds for teams starting with the reverse order of regular season record.
Team > Odds for No. 1 Pick
  • Team 1 > 14.0%
  • Team 2 > 14.0%
  • Team 3 >14.0%
  • Team 4 > 12.5%
  • Team 5 > 10.5%
  • Team 6 > 9.0%
  • Team 7 > 7.5%
  • Team 8 > 4.5%
  • Team 9 > 4.5%
  • Team 10 > 4.5%
  • Team 11 > 1.8%
  • Team 12 > 1.7%
  • Team 13 > 1.0%
  • Team 14 > 0.5%
 

Left.A1

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35 wins for my Bulls :picard: how is that possible we got 3 allstars
 

who_better_than_me

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Rockets are much improved. We won’t be in the tank wars this season. We winning at least 10 more games than last season. Jabari LockSmith and Tari will Make our defense much improved. We’ll compete for a play-in

Wemby going to Detroit, Spurs or Jazz.
 

O.iatlhawksfan

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A rockets fan just said if they play defense they’ll be a play in team :mjlol:

Teams gonna tank mega hard & watch some team with the 10th best chance move up to #1
A team like the rockets or Kings could fukk around and make a play in game cuz so many teams will be tanking
 

Jplaya2023

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These records must be based on stats and not real people talking basketball
 
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