French 2017 Presidential Election - (MACRON WINS)

[thatrapsfan]

I'm talking about his creation as a candidate. Politics is game. Stop being naive. Hamon had no chance since Holland and the PS was burned. His candidacy had one purpose : to stop the most left leaning part of the PS electorate to vote for Melanchon.

There is no conspiracy here. It's basic politic game.

Nope you are reaching for an invisible hand, to explain an unremarkable development. Your whole conspiracy relies on short-term memory. There was never any indication that Melenchon could go above his traditional ceiling before the past month. That the PS would run a candidate despite polling poorly is hardly unusual. Nor is it unusual for the aspiring candidate to push a platform that is different from the unpopular PS president.

Heck you are still talking like the PS vote didn't collapse. It did and it still didn't go all to Melenchon. There's no guarantee the remaining 6 percent who voted PS, despite it all, would opt for Melenchon in Hamon's absence.

 

[mbewane]

TLDR : It's impossible that Le Pen wins this.

I really don't get why people are so scared of this second round to be honest. It was the same in 2002 and even if JM Le Pen had way less legitimacy, the result was obvious. As you accurately stated low participation is the only reason the FN can rise (not necessarily win), a high number is always detrimental to them because they supporters are faithful but are limited in number. So to sway their percentage, they indeed need a low number of total votes so they can raise their stock relatively speaking. In 2002 when FN managed to get in the second round, the participation was at 71% and rose 9 points in the second round. 80% is usually where we max out in the 2nd round since 1995 (except in 2007 because of fresh heads, we topped at 83). Before 1995, numbers in the 2nd were even higher.

It's possible that some won't vote for Macron for legit reasons. Myself I already stated that I don't like him though he did say some interesting things in the campaign but that's all. That said, mechanically, Le Pen just can't get half the votes :

- First, she didn't win the 1st round which I thought she could but she peaked way too early and lost momentum. People voted at 77% in the first round, which is relatively high and usually this number rises in the second round but it's not a given. At 80% participants, 50% is 18M votes. Macron already did 24% and Le Pen 21% which is respectively 8.5M and 7.5M so a head start for Macron of 1M people. At 80% participants, he then needs to convince less people than Le Pen.

- Second, even if some people think that the political spectrum is a circle and that there are connexions between the far left and the far right. In practice, the ends are opposite most of the times. Therefore, on average for a far left voter, Macron will still be closer than a Le Pen and that will be true for any voter than is from far left to moderate right (considering that even Fillon which is classified in very conservative, neo liberal breh called to vote for Macron, but for the sake of the argument, let's say this type may flock to Le Pen). which is the majority. So Macron starts with a bigger reservoir of first-hand votes than Le Pen and also has a bigger reservoir of second-hand votes (even if they will peg their noses to vote for him).

- Third, historically, FN is "taboo". Even if MLP managed to successfully smoothen its image in 2017, she still slips from time to time. Even if the current gen never experienced the hard image of his father and the likes of Gollnish or Mégret which were despicable, they still have the "feeling" that FN is far from being a good thing to vote for. That's the reason why historically, the "Front Républicain" is symbolically called when FN is at the second round of an election. It has weakened since the late 2000s but it's still something that the majority of losers of the first rounds of any elections accept to call for their supporters to do. Which means that even those that vote right may chose to vote for Macron just because their dignity can't accept to be the culprits that elected FN as leader of the Nation.

All that makes it impossible for Le Pen, not only to get 18M votes but to garner more second-hand votes from Macron (whom she's already trailing behind). I would have understood (a little) the worries if the roles were reversed and Le Pen was at 24 and Macron at 21. But in the current configuration I just don't understand why people are scared. It's not over confidence from my end because we're never safe from fukkery but it's impossible for her to get 10.5M votes more than what she managed to do in the first.

Realistically, she may get around 14M votes which is huge honestly (but not guaranteed). With this number of votes, she'll need the super low number of 28M voters to win which would make the participation level at... 62% ! Which would be new record low... from 1969 at 6% lower from the previous mark. A 15 points drop from the 1st round would mean 7M less voters which makes no sense.

I sincerely hope you're right, but what I'm hearing/seeing since yesterday raises my concern.

- It's nothing like 2002, because Jean-Marie was still very much linked with a "true" extreme-right, racist and antisemite party. All the controversies (that Marine has managed to avoid) made him seem as what they are : fascists that deny history, with exposed racism and antisemtism, a danger for France, etc. Now FN is a "normal" part (not without thanks to UMP//Les Républicains, who made their ideas mainstream). Marine's director of campaign's father was Jew, just to show how far they went in the "normalization" of the party. Philippot is gay. Father was evicted. It's not taboo at all, I heard people openly talking about voting Le Pen not far from where I live (14e). The "worst" Marine has done is the whole thing with the Euro Parliament (no one cares) or the Vel'd'Hiv comments (no one cares either).

- I'm pretty sure some of Fillon's voters will vote for her. They are still convinced that "the system" and "the media" robbed them of their election, and now they gonna vote for who they consider Hollande's successor? Doesn't matter what Fillon said. These are people who also talk about "immigrants" and "Arabs" "invading" France and who hate the Left. We might as well chalk up Dupont-Aignan's voters for her too. The main difference is that in times past the Left had proven that they will vote for the Right in order to stop the FN. That's also why it was no problem for Chirac (next to the fact that it was an unprecedented situation...it isn't now). On the contrary, the Right has almost always had a "ni-ni" ("neither-nor") attitude when the same situation involved the Left and FN, and since they consider Macron to be the heir to Hollande...

- But the real issue for me is participation. I'm hearing/reading A LOT of people calling not to vote, because fukk Macron. Some even go as far as saying "Maybe this country need a period of FN to get it right". And that goes from people who voted PS to, obviously, people who voted Mélenchon. Damn near all the blogs/websites/people involved in anti-racism/afro "issues" I know all calling for people NOT to vote, in order to "prove" to french people that France is racist (like we're gonna get something out of that) or to send a "fukk you" to "the media" and "the system". All of which is basically the same reasoning that FN and Fillon had, but I digress. There's no reason to assume that particpation will be as high in the second round this time. Notice Mélenchon didn't call to vote for anyone in the 2nd round.

Again, I hope you're right, but we're far removed from 2002.

 

[African Peasant]

Nope you are reaching for an invisible hand, to explain an unremarkable development. Your whole conspiracy relies on short-term memory. There was never any indication that Melenchon could go above his traditional ceiling before the past month. That the PS would run a candidate despite polling poorly is hardly unusual. Nor is it unusual for the aspiring candidate to push a platform that is different from the unpopular PS president.

Heck you are still talking like the PS vote didn't collapse. It did and it still didn't go all to Melenchon. There's no guarantee the remaining 6 percent who voted PS, despite it all, would opt for Melenchon in Hamon's absence.

There is no conspiracy. It's a simple strategy. Who told you there was no indication ? There is a huge left leaning electorate who hates Hollande, Valls and Macron. These people had to go somewhere : FN or Melanchon. The candidacy of Hamon was there to please them and to keep them from going to Melenchon. All the big shots, Hollande being the first, knew that Macron was the horse, not Hamon.

The PS vote collapse because a part of it went to Macron (basically those who voted for vALLS in the primaries) and another part went to Melanchon. Without Hamon, Melanchon's score would have been higher.

 

[mbewane]

Yeah you'right.

But they still don't have the bureaucracy of a party. For instance, I personally know a lot of cats who are being groomed as the next candidates of en marche for the next elections when they have no political experience. They are basically taking anyone since the party is an empty shell.

The liberal part (liberal in the european sense) of the PS will join "en marche". En marche is supposed to be the liberal/progressist french party. It's something Segolene Royal tried to do in 2007 with her failed alliance with Bayrou.

That's nothing new though, Podemos and M5S did exactly that in Spain and Italy, hell the FN itself had to recruit heavily when they started winning big and purging the party of the some of the older people. Same in Belgium with the N-VA party, now on top.

Nope you are reaching for an invisible hand, to explain an unremarkable development. Your whole conspiracy relies on short-term memory. There was never any indication that Melenchon could go above his traditional ceiling before the past month. That the PS would run a candidate despite polling poorly is hardly unusual. Nor is it unusual for the aspiring candidate to push a platform that is different from the unpopular PS president.

Heck you are still talking like the PS vote didn't collapse. It did and it still didn't go all to Melenchon. There's no guarantee the remaining 6 percent who voted PS, despite it all, would opt for Melenchon in Hamon's absence.

I think more probably most of those would've voted for Macron or not voted at all.

 

[African Peasant]

There is no conspiracy. It's a simple strategy. Who told you there was no indication ? There is a huge left leaning electorate who hates Hollande, Valls and Macron. These people had to go somewhere : FN or Melanchon. The candidacy of Hamon was there to please them and to keep them from going to Melenchon. All the big shots, Hollande being the first, knew that Macron was the horse, not Hamon.

That's nothing new though, Podemos and M5S did exactly that in Spain and Italy, hell the FN itself had to recruit heavily when they started winning big and purging the party of the some of the older people. Same in Belgium with the N-VA party, now on top.



I think more probably most of those would've voted for Macron or not voted at all.

I know it's nothing new. It's a specificity of parties who do not have a big pool of high level executives either because they are new or because they are small.

 

[thatrapsfan]

There is no conspiracy. It's a simple strategy. Who told you there was no indication ? There is a huge left leaning electorate who hates Hollande, Valls and Macron. These people had to go somewhere : FN or Melanchon. The candidacy of Hamon was there to please them and to keep them from going to Melenchon. All the big shots, Hollande being the first, knew that Macron was the horse, not Hamon.

You are merging many different points to make a big claim that doesn't stand up to facts or the timeline. Its pretty telling this theory has only gained currency this past week. It shows how much it relies on short-termism. Who was arguing Hamon was a front to stop Melenchon in January? (no one)

That Valls/Hollande were unpopular explains why Hamon won the primary. Also again, the SP vote *did* collapse and those votes did go somwhere (Melenchon and Macron). 6 percent is a tiny number compared to what the party has traditionally scored, so if this was a conspiracy, it wasn't a very successful one. There's also no guarantee that all 6 percent would automatically vote Melenchon in the absence of an SP candidate.

The ironic part about this claim, is that when Hamon was polling slightly ahead of Melenchon, the latter argued against merging by saying his campaign was about real principles not simply numbers. Now the latter's voters are pushing a very mainstream strategic voter argument

 

[mbewane]

I know it's nothing new. It's a specificity of parties who do not have a big pool of high level executives either because they are new or because they are small.

OK I thought you meant it was a problem for Macron. I personally don't think it is.

 

[FAH1223]

About a month ago I wrote about Emmanuel Macron as a risk, rather than a saviour. Today, following his 1st round presidential victory in France, I feel even more that he represents a risk that is unappreciated. Here’s why.

As I put in March, “Macron as President is a ‘bad’ outcome for stability since he has no political base. his election would create uncertainty because it would make the likelihood of a weak presidency greater.” And I what I meant by that is that Macron has no MPs to support him and his legislative agenda. If his reformist agenda is to be successful, he needs legislative support. And that’s hard to get when you don’t have a party apparatus behind you.

Tony Barber at the FT put it really well in two paragraphs that highlight both how Macron represents the status quo and how he also is an outsider legislatively:

“it is misleading to portray Mr Macron as a complete outsider. He is, in fact, the preferred candidate of wide sections of the French political and technocratic elite who saw several years ago that the old party system was breaking down and were on the hunt for a candidate who could be presented to French voters as a fresh face. He is a product of the finest French educational institutions, including the École Nationale d’Administration, the training ground of the elite, and served François Hollande, the outgoing president, both as a specialist adviser and as economy minister.

Should he win as expected on May 7, Mr Macron may not find governing easy. Sheer political momentum may help many candidates of his En Marche! (On the Move) party to win seats in the June parliamentary elections, but an outright majority may elude him. The most probable outcome is a legislature in which a large, centrist “presidential” bloc supports Mr Macron, but critics assail him from the far right, the conservative right and the left.”

Now, current President Hollande made a lot of promises about adding stimulus and creating jobs when he was running for President in 2012. Then he ran up against the strictures of the Eurozone’s stability and growth pact and was stymied in executing his agenda. His Presidency quickly became the most unpopular in French history.

His Economy Minister Montebourg was a bit of a maverick. By 2014, he was accusing the Germans of forcing France into a restrictive policy. And Montebourg was criticizing Hollande for being too restrictive and caving to the Germans to boot. Hollande had him replaced by Emmanuel Macron.

And so Macron was brought in because he agreed with the austerity-lite paradigm. Thus, he ‘owned’ French economic policy under Hollande. Yet, somehow Hollande took the blame for the economy’s shortcomings, with Macron quitting government altogether in 2016.

I would say there is no real indication that economic policy under Macron will change drastically, first because of the euro and eurozone restrictions, and the attendant government solvency risks. But then there’s the fact that Macron has no political base.

Macron has almost no government experience and has never been elected to political office. So we are talking about someone who is supposed to make his country great again by radically overhauling government without having a natural political base. That’s even more difficult to do than it has been for Donald Trump, who at least has the Republican party to help him execute policy. After all, even Macron’s old party, the socialists, are no help here. Their support has been decimated during the Hollande presidency. They will suffer heavy defeats in the parliamentary elections in June.

To me, this is the recipe for a weak presidency and then the question has to be how the economy fares. If it doesn’t fare well, Marine Le Pen will be in a much stronger position in 2022.

 

[DEAD7]

Paris (AFP) - Emmanuel Macron's youthful supporters wept tears of joy and shouted themselves hoarse on Sunday as projections from France's presidential election suggested their champion was well on track for power.

Similar jubilation played out at the headquarters of the far-right National Front (FN), whose leader Marine Le Pen brought the party to the presidential runoff for just the second time in its history.

For supporters of the conservative Republicans and far-left France Insoumise (France Unbowed), there was bitterness at a dream left unfulfilled.

But for Socialists, the evening was a nightmare, bringing the curtain down on the party's grip on the paramount seat of power.

 

[African Peasant]

You are merging many different points to make a big claim that doesn't stand up to facts or the timeline. Its pretty telling this theory has only gained currency this past week. It shows how much it relies on short-termism. Who was arguing Hamon was a front to stop Melenchon in January? (no one)

That Valls/Hollande were unpopular explains why Hamon won the primary. Also again, the SP vote *did* collapse and those votes did go somwhere (Melenchon and Macron). 6 percent is a tiny number compared to what the party has traditionally scored, so if this was a conspiracy, it wasn't a very successful one. There's also no guarantee that all 6 percent would automatically vote Melenchon in the absence of an SP candidate.

The ironic part about this claim, is that when Hamon was polling slightly ahead of Melenchon, the latter argued against merging by saying his campaign was about real principles not simply numbers. Now the latter's voters are pushing a very mainstream strategic voter argument

You're the one using shirt termism. Why are you using january ? Melanchon was big 5 years ago, so it wasn't unpredictable to think his electorate will came back sooner or later. The question was how big ? And, beyond Melanchon, they needed someone to keep the left leaning part of the electorate, even if their goal was Macron. Plus, they needed to give the illusion that Macron is not the continuation of the actual regime.

Yeah, Hamon won the primary because Holande and Valls were unpopular. So what ? You think anyone thought he could've won the election ? The PS was done, including Hamon. They knew it. Conspiracies may fell. Is it new to you ? Conspiracy does not mean success. Howver, this one was successful, since Macron is going to win.
What argument are you talking about ?

 

[African Peasant]

OK I thought you meant it was a problem for Macron. I personally don't think it is.

I think it is. Macron is not sure to have a majority in the parliament. This is the first time a president in the Vth republic will not have a big party to give him the majority.

And even if he manage to have a majority, it might be an unstable one. It's an interesting situation.

 

[thatrapsfan]

You're the one using shirt termism. Why are you using january ? Melanchon was big 5 years ago, so it wasn't unpredictable to think his electorate will came back sooner or later. The question was how big ? And, beyond Melanchon, they needed someone to keep the left leaning part of the electorate, even if their goal was Macron. Plus, they needed to give the illusion that Macron is not the continuation of the actual regime.

Yeah, Hamon won the primary because Holande and Valls were unpopular. So what ? You think anyone thought he could've won the election ? The PS was done, including Hamon. They knew it. Conspiracies may fell. Is it new to you ? Conspiracy does not mean success. Howver, this one was successful, since Macron is going to win.
What argument are you talking about ?

Again your argument is incoherent when evaluated against the facts.

You claim Hamon was pushed as part of a Valls/Hollande conspiracy.... yet Valls backed Macron to the anger of the left-wing of the party:

Ex-French PM Valls to back centrist Macron for presidency: Le Parisien

Why would Valls actively sabotage Hamon, if he was simply a prop to stop Melenchon? You mean to tell me hurting Hamon's electoral chances was part of the long-game to stop Melenchon? If anything Valls stance helped Melenchon. The polls clearly show a big part of Melenchon's rise came at Hamon's expense. He only pulled ahead of him in March.

That a major party ran a Presidential candidate when they were unpopular is not evidence of a conspiracy at all.

 

[mbewane]

I think it is. Macron is not sure to have a majority in the parliament. This is the first time a president in the Vth republic will not have a big party to give him the majority.

And even if he manage to have a majority, it might be an unstable one. It's an interesting situation.

Yes this is true, I was more thinking of the team he will work with as a President if elected. But indeed the main battle will be at the parliament level, I think it might be an unstable one throughout, which indeed makes it difficult to govern. Interesting indeed because it'll basically be what various european countries have already been through, a diverse parliament with possibly no clear majority.

 

[thatrapsfan]

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Article points to trends that @mbewane has mentioned in this thread.

Europe is delighted, the markets are reassured and the French establishment is showing renewed confidence that Marine Le Pen will not become president of France. But the far-right National Front still sees a path to victory on May 7.

Ms Le Pen plans to step down as head of the FN in an attempt to look more presidential, but the party apparatus will continue to run her campaign. Senior FN officials say they plan to make the next two weeks a “clash of civilisations” between the winners and losers of globalisation, between the “elites” supporting independent centrist Emmanuel Macron and “patriots” supporting Ms Le Pen.

David Rachline, the FN campaign director, says there are more voters who have suffered than have gained from the free market and pro-European policies advocated by Mr Macron. “The French people are against relentless globalisation,” he said.

Indeed, although Mr Macron won the first round, a total of 49 per cent of voters backed candidates opposed to the EU and in favour of more economic nationalism.

“On the actual issues, the French people agree with us,” said Mr Rachline.

The polls show the FN will face an uphill struggle, hampered by the party’s toxic image and fears about its plans to take France out of the euro.

A snap Ipsos survey late on Sunday said Mr Macron would win 62 per cent of the votes in the May 7 run-off, against 38 per cent for Ms Le Pen, as centrists rally behind the 39-year-old former banker.

These figures suggested a possible repeat of the election in 2002, when Marine Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, made it to the second round but was defeated convincingly as right and left rallied to defeat him. Back then, Mr Le Pen took 17 per cent in the first round and just 18 per cent two weeks later.

“It is not impossible for Marine Le Pen to win but something radical would need to happen,” said Dominique Reynié, a professor of political science at the Sciences Po institute in Paris. “She would need to change her policy about leaving the euro . . . or Macron would have to make some big mistakes,” he said. “Huge complacency by the electorate could also do it.”

The French political establishment on Monday was busy trying to solidify Mr Macron’s lead, with figures from the right and the left calling on people to vote “anything but Le Pen”. Benoît Hamon, the Socialist party candidate, and François Fillon of the centre-right said there was “no other option” but to vote against the far right. President François Hollande also said he would vote for Mr Macron.

There are signs, however, that voters will not come out in the same numbers for Mr Macron as they did for Jacques Chirac against Mr Le Pen in 2002 — offering the FN a narrow chance of victory.

For a start, defeated far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has pointedly refused to support Mr Macron, leaving a sliver of hope that the FN will be able to attract some anti-system hard-left voters. “Macron is our enemy, he is our class enemy,” said Thibault Lhonneur, a 29-year-old activist at Mr Mélenchon’s election night party on Sunday. “Macron is the hard 3 per cent [EU] deficit rule, lower salaries, lower social protection and the Uberisation of society. In the workplace, he wants us to be competitors rather than colleagues.”

The FN has spotted this as an opportunity. Florian Philippot, FN vice-president, on Monday urged supporters of Mr Mélenchon to rally behind Ms Le Pen. “Do you think they [Mélenchon voters] want a total deregulation of the economy? Do you think they want to go any further in this banking and financial European Union?” he told France 2 television. Even if supporters of Mr Mélenchon do not vote directly for Ms Le Pen, their widespread abstention could help the far-right leader. T
ypically, high abstention helps the FN as its diehard supporters are more likely to vote. In the leftwing twittersphere, hashtag #SansMoiLe7Mai (Without Me on May 7) has been circulating, calling for people to abstain. On marches across France on Sunday night, many held banners reading: “Neither a banker nor a racist”. Late on Sunday, Gabriel, a 21 year-old Mélenchon supporter said he was considering voting blank in the second round. “We have the choice between something revolting and a monster,” he said.

On the right, there is an even larger opportunity, with polls suggesting that already about a third of Fillon supporters say they are willing to vote for Ms Le Pen in the second round. About the same number are willing to abstain.

Philippe Palluy, a retired property entrepreneur from Lyon, said: “After the cold shower we took [on Sunday], I will go on holiday for 15 days . . . I will abstain purely and simply.”

While the anti-FN so-called “Republican Front” that led Mr Chirac to victory in 2002 appears to be fraying, Mr Macron is still the clear favourite. Half of Fillon voters and 60 per cent of Mélenchon voters still say they will support him in the second round, according to Ipsos.

Mr Macron was so confident on Sunday night that he spent the evening at the chic La Rotonde restaurant with friends and celebrities, shrugging off criticism by the FN about how this only showed he was part of the “oligarchy”. Ms Le Pen enjoyed a different post-election, going on a walkabout in the small northern town of Rouvroy.

But, for financial analysts at least, two weeks is a long time in politics. “The probability of a Le Pen presidency has decreased but is not yet null,” said Marc de Muizon of Deutsche Bank. In an election that has stunned onlookers at every turn, any “possible new scandal, strong debate performance . . . or complacency from the electorate” could still cause an upset, he said.

 

[African Peasant]

Again your argument is incoherent when evaluated against the facts.

You claim Hamon was pushed as part of a Valls/Hollande conspiracy.... yet Valls backed Macron to the anger of the left-wing of the party:

Ex-French PM Valls to back centrist Macron for presidency: Le Parisien

Why would Valls actively sabotage Hamon, if he was simply a prop to stop Melenchon? You mean to tell me hurting Hamon's electoral chances was part of the long-game to stop Melenchon? If anything Valls stance helped Melenchon. The polls clearly show a big part of Melenchon's rise came at Hamon's expense. He only pulled ahead of him in March.

That a major party ran a Presidential candidate when they were unpopular is not evidence of a conspiracy at all.

You're wrong. Hamon and Valls do not have the same electorate... Valls couldn't hurt Hamon... but he could help Macron, and that's what he did.