Wargames
One Of The Last Real Ones To Do It
Sounds like a economic crash is coming...... if this shyt hits the consumer market in September when the extra unemployment ends it will be a disaster.
I'm in supply chain dealing with the fukkery AMA; Update: Chip shortage until at least 2022
- Thread starter DrBanneker
- Start date
-
- Tags
- economy inflation supply chain
Wargames
One Of The Last Real Ones To Do It
JIT is profitable but cannot handle any major disruption like a disaster.
Red Shield
Global Domination
Guessing the supply chains ain't gonna be back to normal until either late this year or next year
DrBanneker
Space is the Place
Yeah, basically for semiconductors at least Chip Shortage to Last Until At least 2022 (in Financial Times w/ paywall unfortunately).
That, and an abrupt increase in demand, I presume.
Edit: I also saw about 20 trucks hauling lumber this morning.
loyola llothta
☭☭☭
It’s all about playing the game
MIKE SPLEAN
Superstar
Recession time
DrBanneker
Space is the Place
Update: still not back to normal and in some cases (electronics) it is getting worse in some areas. Based on what I have been dealing with here is some advice.
Christmas Shopping: Start now and be done by Halloween latest. Whatever isn't already in port may not make it so stock outs of popular items are going to be permanent. Or get everyone gift cards to buy stuff when it is available
Also, Christmas prices will go up more and more closer to December. Because of the ocean shipping mess everyone is switching to air freight which is more expensive and now getting even more expensive due to demand. They are going to likely have to pass this on.
Below is an image of the anchored ships outside the Port of Long Beach, CA. Just the anchored ones, not the ones arriving. It is congested as hell and not getting better
Car Stuff: If you don't have a car on order with someone, good luck. Used car inventories are still bad and the rental car companies are no longer selling into the used market as much since they can't get a reliable supply of new cars.
1) If you need a car repair, plan on the part possibly not being available or taking 2-6 weeks to arrive. If you don't have to do OEM, aftermarket may (or maybe not) be available or worst case go to the junkyard like back in the day.
2) If you are planning to travel and rent a car, reserve it at least two weeks in advance, 4 weeks in advance for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Inventories are tight and some people who book at the last minute may not get cars
Electronics: We have some stuff going into late 2022 or even 2023 now. If there is a gadget you want, including a phone upgrade, do it now. Even if not available you will be put on the list for when stuff gets in. Grabbing popular stuff right off the shelf is going to be increasingly harder.
Watch out for counterfeits since these are booming with supply issues.
Thanksgiving: I deal with food wholesalers too. Turkey production is down about 1% compared to last year but the bigger deal is the logistics and meat packing capacity. Frozen turkey is going to go up at least 15% this year. Stuffing, cranberry sauce, etc. may have similar issues so since those are shelf stable, might as well grab them now. Pre-order a turkey maybe too, especially if you want a small one.Consumer Reports just did an article on this too:
There's No Turkey Shortage. But You Still Should Start Your Thanksgiving Prep Now.
Local turkey/pig/chicken farms may sell direct. It won't be cheap and usually stocks out all the time but it gives you more flexibility.
Heating Bills: I procure natural gas too (go figure). Northeast US/New England is going to likely be fukked this summer, especially if it gets real cold in Jan/Feb. You are competing with pricing for LNG export to Europe and Asia which is much higher than the USA. If your utility allows you to lock in forward rates or shop for someone who can, consider it though make sure your contract doesn't have a clause where they can pass higher prices to you if the provider's hedge blows up.
Hardware Stuff: Comes out of Asia on ships. High volume stuff may be ok but if you need anything specialized I would get it now for any DIY stuff you may want to do.
Hoshi_Toshi
Superstar
Perfect time to factory order that car you always wanted with the specs.
DrBanneker
Space is the Place
Sure, if you can be flexible with what is available now. One feature may kill the lead time for months.
Update: still not back to normal and in some cases (electronics) it is getting worse in some areas. Based on what I have been dealing with here is some advice.
Christmas Shopping: Start now and be done by Halloween latest. Whatever isn't already in port may not make it so stock outs of popular items are going to be permanent. Or get everyone gift cards to buy stuff when it is available
Also, Christmas prices will go up more and more closer to December. Because of the ocean shipping mess everyone is switching to air freight which is more expensive and now getting even more expensive due to demand. They are going to likely have to pass this on.
Below is an image of the anchored ships outside the Port of Long Beach, CA. Just the anchored ones, not the ones arriving. It is congested as hell and not getting better
Car Stuff: If you don't have a car on order with someone, good luck. Used car inventories are still bad and the rental car companies are no longer selling into the used market as much since they can't get a reliable supply of new cars.
1) If you need a car repair, plan on the part possibly not being available or taking 2-6 weeks to arrive. If you don't have to do OEM, aftermarket may (or maybe not) be available or worst case go to the junkyard like back in the day.
2) If you are planning to travel and rent a car, reserve it at least two weeks in advance, 4 weeks in advance for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Inventories are tight and some people who book at the last minute may not get cars
Electronics: We have some stuff going into late 2022 or even 2023 now. If there is a gadget you want, including a phone upgrade, do it now. Even if not available you will be put on the list for when stuff gets in. Grabbing popular stuff right off the shelf is going to be increasingly harder.
Watch out for counterfeits since these are booming with supply issues.
Thanksgiving: I deal with food wholesalers too. Turkey production is down about 1% compared to last year but the bigger deal is the logistics and meat packing capacity. Frozen turkey is going to go up at least 15% this year. Stuffing, cranberry sauce, etc. may have similar issues so since those are shelf stable, might as well grab them now. Pre-order a turkey maybe too, especially if you want a small one.Consumer Reports just did an article on this too:
There's No Turkey Shortage. But You Still Should Start Your Thanksgiving Prep Now.
Local turkey/pig/chicken farms may sell direct. It won't be cheap and usually stocks out all the time but it gives you more flexibility.
Heating Bills: I procure natural gas too (go figure). Northeast US/New England is going to likely be fukked this summer, especially if it gets real cold in Jan/Feb. You are competing with pricing for LNG export to Europe and Asia which is much higher than the USA. If your utility allows you to lock in forward rates or shop for someone who can, consider it though make sure your contract doesn't have a clause where they can pass higher prices to you if the provider's hedge blows up.
Hardware Stuff: Comes out of Asia on ships. High volume stuff may be ok but if you need anything specialized I would get it now for any DIY stuff you may want to do.
Dapped on the insight
But breh whatever your job is, it sounds
Sounds like companies coming to you like
and you have to make them miracles work
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2015
- Messages
- 25,082
- Reputation
- 14,928
- Daps
- 106,524
- Reppin
- Charlotte - Washington D.C.
Update: still not back to normal and in some cases (electronics) it is getting worse in some areas. Based on what I have been dealing with here is some advice.
Christmas Shopping: Start now and be done by Halloween latest. Whatever isn't already in port may not make it so stock outs of popular items are going to be permanent. Or get everyone gift cards to buy stuff when it is available
Also, Christmas prices will go up more and more closer to December. Because of the ocean shipping mess everyone is switching to air freight which is more expensive and now getting even more expensive due to demand. They are going to likely have to pass this on.
Below is an image of the anchored ships outside the Port of Long Beach, CA. Just the anchored ones, not the ones arriving. It is congested as hell and not getting better
Car Stuff: If you don't have a car on order with someone, good luck. Used car inventories are still bad and the rental car companies are no longer selling into the used market as much since they can't get a reliable supply of new cars.
1) If you need a car repair, plan on the part possibly not being available or taking 2-6 weeks to arrive. If you don't have to do OEM, aftermarket may (or maybe not) be available or worst case go to the junkyard like back in the day.
2) If you are planning to travel and rent a car, reserve it at least two weeks in advance, 4 weeks in advance for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Inventories are tight and some people who book at the last minute may not get cars
Electronics: We have some stuff going into late 2022 or even 2023 now. If there is a gadget you want, including a phone upgrade, do it now. Even if not available you will be put on the list for when stuff gets in. Grabbing popular stuff right off the shelf is going to be increasingly harder.
Watch out for counterfeits since these are booming with supply issues.
Thanksgiving: I deal with food wholesalers too. Turkey production is down about 1% compared to last year but the bigger deal is the logistics and meat packing capacity. Frozen turkey is going to go up at least 15% this year. Stuffing, cranberry sauce, etc. may have similar issues so since those are shelf stable, might as well grab them now. Pre-order a turkey maybe too, especially if you want a small one.Consumer Reports just did an article on this too:
There's No Turkey Shortage. But You Still Should Start Your Thanksgiving Prep Now.
Local turkey/pig/chicken farms may sell direct. It won't be cheap and usually stocks out all the time but it gives you more flexibility.
Heating Bills: I procure natural gas too (go figure). Northeast US/New England is going to likely be fukked this summer, especially if it gets real cold in Jan/Feb. You are competing with pricing for LNG export to Europe and Asia which is much higher than the USA. If your utility allows you to lock in forward rates or shop for someone who can, consider it though make sure your contract doesn't have a clause where they can pass higher prices to you if the provider's hedge blows up.
Hardware Stuff: Comes out of Asia on ships. High volume stuff may be ok but if you need anything specialized I would get it now for any DIY stuff you may want to do.
Yeah.. it’s getting worst over with the seafood business. Still raising prices and I’m dealing with customers either closing up shop or reducing orders or resorting to cheaper substitutes. For example, crab meat is ranging from 30 to 50 dollars a lb at the moment, that’s typical lobster prices. Tuna, swordfish, lobster, clams, oysters, etc..all of it going up and it’s getting harder and harder to source it. Folks absolutely have no idea how difficult it’s getting for food to make it from source to shelf to your table.
Vandelay
Life is absurd. Lean into it.
Yeah, it's not getting any better at my company either. I imagine it will be bad until end of 2022/2023, and even then the prices will normalize at that level, not come back down.
damn, i must've not been posting when this thread was made.
i got a couple of things to speak on but first of all props to @DrBanneker for this dope thread.
June 2020 i upgrade my GPU because my unemployment finally came in.
went from a 970 to a 1070
slowly, quarantine life starts to settle in and i tell my girl that i want to build her a PC in the living room so she can use the TV as her monitor.
eventually i convinced her that it was a good investment. got her an i5 9600k, 16 gigs of ddr4 and gave her my old 970.
then around September of 2020 my motherboard died. it had a good run of about 5-6 years.
welp, time to build a new PC! got another i5 9600k and 32 gigs of ddr4 ram.
yo...if this had happened just a few months after it did, i would have been super
i lucked the fukk out. my gpu is over 5 years old and selling for more than double the MSI right now.
crazy.
about the supply chain of the food...
i live in an area of NYS that is popping with farms and cattle, much of the stuff in stores is local.
hopefully that helps me weather the coming storm.
i got a couple of things to speak on but first of all props to @DrBanneker for this dope thread.
June 2020 i upgrade my GPU because my unemployment finally came in.
went from a 970 to a 1070
slowly, quarantine life starts to settle in and i tell my girl that i want to build her a PC in the living room so she can use the TV as her monitor.
eventually i convinced her that it was a good investment. got her an i5 9600k, 16 gigs of ddr4 and gave her my old 970.
then around September of 2020 my motherboard died. it had a good run of about 5-6 years.
welp, time to build a new PC! got another i5 9600k and 32 gigs of ddr4 ram.
yo...if this had happened just a few months after it did, i would have been super
i lucked the fukk out. my gpu is over 5 years old and selling for more than double the MSI right now.
crazy.
about the supply chain of the food...
i live in an area of NYS that is popping with farms and cattle, much of the stuff in stores is local.
hopefully that helps me weather the coming storm.