Offense is important again, but it's
bad offenses that have won more games than expected. Of the 24 statistically significant correlations for this time period, only Total VOA doesn't have "offense" in the name. And yet, every one of those offensive DVOAs has a negative effect on playoff success. The 2007 New York Giants -- I'm sensing a theme here -- had the highest PWA since 1990 (not just from 2006 to 2012), but ranked 18th with -1.1% Offense DVOA. The 2009 New York Jets -- seriously, what's with the New York thing today -- amassed +1.06 PWA despite finishing the regular season at -12.5% Offense DVOA (ranked 22nd). Meanwhile, the 2010 New England Patriots, who currently
own the second-best Offense DVOA of all time (so far) were one and done thanks to the N+1 incarnation of that Jets team despite being a 3-to-1 favorite to win the game. Finally, the team with the worst PWA of this era (-0.79) was the 2007 Indianapolis Colts, they of the 22.2% Offense DVOA and Divisional round exit at the hands of
Billy Volek.
The fact that having a good offense -- especially a good pass offense -- seems to be a recipe for playoff failure these days is puzzling to me for two reasons. First, if that's the case, then why isn't having a good defense -- especially a good pass defense -- part of the recipe for success? Of 126 DVOA splits, the most influential defensive correlation ranks 28th (-.191 for front zone) and pass defense doesn't show up until 48th (-.129 for Weeks 10-17). Second, and more importantly,
what the hell's going on out here? Anyone who is either in tune with NFL stat analysis or has happened to watch an NFL game over the past few years knows that having a high-octane pass offense, usually on the shoulders of an
elite quarterback, is the shortest distance between showing up and winning. Over the past seven years, however, 14 of the 18 teams that finished the regular season in the top 3 of Pass Offense DVOA underachieved in the playoffs, including the last six No. 1s. Of course, in the irony to end all ironies, the only No. 1 pass offense to win the Super Bowl during this period was the 2006 Indianapolis Colts. After 2,500 words, it turns out Bill Polian's s--t comes up smelling like roses to this moron.