What happened to Trevor Lawrence?

[Bryan Danielson]

 

[Flex Luger]

Man in here riding hard for dude

 

[bobbiewishbone]

 

[triplehate]

He was hyped a generational prospect that would be a perennial top 5 guy in the league and he’s been a turnover machine . 58 turnovers now since he started in the league, that’s Jameis status

In the history of your life no one they said was going to be top 5 has ever been top 5 in any sport besides LeBron. So are they wrong for making it up or you wrong for believing

 

[winb83]

He was playing like shyt before that happened.

He been extra bad since.

 

[LexLuthor]

In the history of your life no one they said was going to be top 5 has ever been top 5 in any sport besides LeBron. So are they wrong for making it up or you wrong for believing

Eh…Bryce Harper lived up to his hype.

Andrew Luck probably would’ve but Indy treated him like a piñata

 

[winb83]

5 of his 12 ints are after he got hurt. His last 10 games SF was abysmal but pre getting hurt he had 90+ quarterback rankings. TDs are a bit low but overall they were winning.

 

[GR13]

John Elway was considered an elite QB and all time great..

He only completed 60% of his passes or higher TWIC. And the threw double digit interceptions every year he was in the NFL.

youre comparing stats today to stats back then ?

then the entire league stats look like elite qbs ? what is even your point ?

Different era...

Well then Brady isn't the GOAT then. They literally changed the rules for QB's because of him. Allowed him to play until he was damn near 50.

Can't keep moving the goal posts to fit narratives.

If Drew Brees played in the 80's and 90's he wouldn't have put up those numbers. Hell, most QB's that played over the last 10 years.

And this is why I always disagreed with the Elway anointing. He was MID! Then got TD and bruh saved his legacy. It was a different game back then but Elways was constantly turning the ball over.

Hol'up. Different era which is why I don't shyt on him for his low production. But he was mid.. And his peers were putting up better numbers.

I know he had peers better than him. Still disingenuous to use those stats compared to someone who started his career in 2021.

Nuisances of what each QB was capable of in their era is a different story but bro isn't speaking on that. Strictly numbers 60% completion and 10+ INTs was a perennial Pro Bowler 30 years ago.

The fear was there but he was certainly overrated. More than Aikman.

got this from another nfl messageboard about across era qb play ranking and comparison


QB play and the way it has changed over time, along with offenses has provided much debate and discussion. No aspect of this sport has changed more over time than the passing game, and has made comparing QBs across eras difficult, complicated, nuanced, and not anywhere near an exact science. Terry Bradshaw, NFL MVP and 4x SB champion has a lower career passer rating than Zach Wilson. Kirk Cousins has a higher passer rating than Joe Montana, Daniel Jones has the same completion % as Steve Young... You get the point.

So how do we remedy this?

Pro Football Reference has a feature that has intrigued me for a long time: Adjusted passing statistics. Simply put, these stats take a QBs per pass statistics (TD%, INT%, Y/A, Passer Rating, etc.) and scale them according to their stature with the rest of the league. These stats are noted with a + at the end of them (e.g. TD%+ for Adjusted TD%, Rate+ for adjusted Passer Rating).
The scale is such that the league average is always 100. The addition or subtraction represents how much better or worse a QB is in a given stat compared to the rest of the league (e.g. if the league average TD% is 5%, QB A has a TD% of 5.5%, and QB B has a TD% of 4.5%, QB A has a 110 TD%+, while QB B has a 90 TD%+.
115 is considered 1 standard deviation above average, while 85 is considered 1 standard deviation below average. 115 and above in a statistic for a season, you're very, very good. 130 and above, you're an MVP candidate. 145 and above, we're talking era-relative all-time great seasons in whichever statistic the QB has the rating in.
ANY/A is the abbreviation for Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. This stat takes your regular yards, adds 20 for every passing TD, subtracts 45 yards for every INT (hence properly weighting or "adjusting" for TD-INT ratio), and also subtracts sack yardage. No one stat is capable of completely defining a QB's play, but ANY/A is a good start.
Passer Rating is a somewhat controversial statistic, but I feel its inclusion is necessary to account for things such as completion %, as well as a QB having a poor O-Line.
For QBs who do not have available sack yardage (rendering ANY/A+ for them invalid), AY/A+ was used instead. For QBs whose ANY/A+ data was incomplete, their AY/A+ was slightly adjusted according to their available ANY/A+ numbers.

How does this help us compare QBs across eras?

Here is where the Adjusted Passing Stats come in. ANY/A+ and Rate+ will be the basis for my stat, EAP (Era-Adjusted Passing).
EAP consists of 3 subcategories:
Career EAP: A QBs average between their ANY/A+ and Rate+ for all eligible seasons; an eligible season is any season where a QB STARTED in at least 50% of available games: 9 games in a 17-game season, 8 games in a 16-game season, 7 games in a 14 game season, etc. Exception made for the 1982 strike season, where a QB needs to have started at least 7 games
Peak EAP: A QBs average between their ANY/A+ and Rate + for their 3 best, consecutive eligible seasons (e.g. 2004-2006 for Peyton Manning, not just 2004, 2013, and another Manning season); exceptions are made for a guy like Tom Brady, as his 2007, 2009, and 2010 are considered his peak consecutive 3 years since his 2008 season ended in week 1
Weighted EAP: The average between a QBs Career and 3-year Peak EAP; properly weights down an average stat accumulator with no "great" seasons, while propping up a QB who burned hot but did not necessarily maintain peak play over their career.

Okay, great. So who comes out on top?
I spent most of this morning calculating EAP values for most HOF QBs, as well as recent notables. The list for each category is as follows...
Career EAP

1. Otto Graham: 129.9
2. Steve Young: 126.56
3. Roger Staubach: 123.5
4. Joe Montana: 121.88
5. Patrick Mahomes: 120.67
6. Aaron Rodgers: 120.21
7. Kurt Warner 118.63
8. Peyton Manning: 118.44
9. Tony Romo: 117.75 (lol)
10. Drew Brees 116.71
11. Len Dawson 116.13
12. Dan Marino 115.84
13. Tom Brady: 115.62
14. Johnny Unitas: 115
15. Dan Fouts: 114.15
16. Norm Van Brocklin: 113.89
17. Ken Anderson: 113
18. Bart Starr: 112.75
19. Kirk Cousins: 112.44
20. Russell Wilson: 112.21
21. Sonny Jurgensen: 112.1
22. Dak Prescott: 111.93
23. Philip Rivers: 111.9
24. Fran Tarkenton: 111.89
25. Y.A. Tittle: 111.23
26. Bob Griese: 111.21
27. Jim Kelly: 110.32
28. Ben Roethlisberger: 110
29. Brett Favre: 108.61
30. Randall Cunningham: 108.5
31. Donovan McNabb: 108.36
32. Jared Goff: 108.14
33. Matt Ryan: 107.03
34. Ken Stabler: 106.59
35. Warren Moon: 105.8
36. Andrew Luck: 105.7
37. Carson Palmer: 105.68
38. Steve McNair: 105.5
39. John Elway: 104.81 (lol)
40. Joe Namath: 104.78
41. Troy Aikman: 104.75
42. Alex Smith: 103.5
43. Matt Stafford: 103.39
44. Terry Bradshaw: 103.09
45. John Hadl: 102.42
46. Andy Dalton: 100.18
47. Eli Manning: 100.14
48. Mike Vick: 99.64
49. Jay Cutler: 99.6
50. Drew Bledsoe 98.38
51. Cam Newton: 97.61

3-year Peak EAP

1. Steve Young: 139
2. Otto Graham: 138.67
3. Peyton Manning 136.67
4. Kurt Warner: 132.83
5. Aaron Rodgers: 132.17
6. Joe Montana: 130.83
7. Tom Brady: 130.67
8. Len Dawson: 129.67
9. Dan Marino: 129.50
10. Dan Fouts: 128.5
11. Johnny Unitas: 128.33
12. Roger Staubach: 128.17
13. Drew Brees: 127.17
14. Patrick Mahomes: 126.83
15. Philip Rivers: 125.67
16. Ken Anderson 125.17
17. Ken Stabler/Y.A Tittle/Brett Favre: 124.33
18. Jim Kelly: 124.17
19. Fran Tarkenton/Matt Ryan: 123
20. Bart Starr: 122.83
21. Warren Moon: 122.5
22. Troy Aikman: 121.33
23. Norm Van Brocklin/Donovan McNabb: 120.17
24. Bob Griese: 118.33
25. Tony Romo: 117.83
26. Russell Wilson/Steve McNair/John Hadl: 117.67
27. Kirk Cousins: 117.5
28. Terry Bradshaw: 117.33
29. John Elway: 117
30. Sonny Jurgensen/Carson Palmer: 115.67
31. Dak Prescott: 115.5
32. Matt Stafford: 114.67
33. Ben Roethlisberger: 114.5
34. Andrew Luck: 111.67
35. Joe Namath: 111.17
36. Jared Goff/Eli Manning: 110.67
37. Alex Smith: 110
38. Drew Bledsoe: 109
39. Andy Dalton: 108.83
40. Randall Cunningham: 106.83
41. Mike Vick: 104.5
42. Cam Newton: 102.33
43. Jay Cutler: 101.83

Weighted EAP

1. Otto Graham: 134.28
2. Steve Young: 132.78
3. Peyton Manning 127.55
4. Joe Montana: 126.35
5. Aaron Rodger: 126.19
6. Roger Staubach 125.83
7. Kurt Warner 125.73
8. Patrick Mahomes 123.75
9. Tom Brady: 123.14
10. Len Dawson: 122.9
11. Dan Marino 122.67
12. Drew Brees 121.94
13. Johnny Unitas 121.67
14. Dan Fouts 121.33
15. Ken Anderson 119.08
16. Philip Rivers 118.78
17. Tony Romo/Bart Starr 117.79
18. Y.A Tittle: 117.78
19. Fran Tarkenton 117.44
20. Jim Kelly 117.24
21. Norm Van Brocklin 117.03
22. Brett Favre 116.47
23. Ken Stabler 115.46
24. Matt Ryan 115.02
25. Kirk Cousins 114.97
26. Russell Wilson 114.94
27. Bob Griese 114.77
28. Donovan McNabb 114.27
29. Warren Moon 114.15

30. Sonny Jurgensen 113.88

31. Dak Prescott 113.71

32.Troy Aikman 113.04

33. Ben Roethlisberger 112.25

34. Steve McNair 111.58

35. John Elway 110.91

36. Carson Palmer 110.67

37. Terry Bradshaw 110.21

38. John Hadl 110.04

39. Jared Goff 109.4

40. Matt Stafford 109.03

41. Andrew Luck 108.68

42. Joe Namath 107.97

43. Randall Cunningham 107.67

44. Alex Smith 106.75

45. Eli Manning 105.4

46. Andy Dalton 104.51

47. Drew Bledsoe 103.69

48. Mike Vick 102.07

49. Jay Cutler 100.72

50. Cam Newton 99.97



Elway seems to be probably THE most overrated QB of all-time.

Len Dawson and Roger Staubach; underrated ballers.

It's a travesty that Ken Anderson isn't in the HOF.

QBs who did not play as long as some of their contemporaries (McNair, Romo, Mahomes) gain an advantage, use your own discretion when it comes to that.

I'm sure I missed some notable QBs, so if you want me to run the numbers, let me know. Obviously this is not a be-all-end-all stat, but it is a helpful indicator of how QBs performed relative to their era.

 

[GR13]

In the history of your life no one they said was going to be top 5 has ever been top 5 in any sport besides LeBron. So are they wrong for making it up or you wrong for believing

 

[papa pimp]

In the history of your life no one they said was going to be top 5 has ever been top 5 in any sport besides LeBron.

lol not true at all

 

[premier58]

I love your breakdown, @GR13. Does that intricate system factor in weather and supporting casts differences, though?? The formula is on point, though. I have seen it before on Footballguys.net

 

[RammerJammer]

He doesn’t have Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross to make circus catches against mid College DBs anymore that’s what happened.

If you go back and watch that Bama/Clemson game in 2019, Trevor really didn’t do anything special, it was Clemson taking advantage of a weak side of Bama’s secondary and receivers making crazy plays, unlike Deshaun Watson who was basically Superman in the 2 title games he played in.

I always felt like the hype was a bit too much, he was getting that Elway/Luck “generational” label and I have yet to see it.

 

[premier58]

In the history of your life no one they said was going to be top 5 has ever been top 5 in any sport besides LeBron. So are they wrong for making it up or you wrong for believing

Sidney Crosby?

 

[MJ Truth]

Best prospect of a poor ass QB class, I never heard anyone call him generational but i guess it wouldnt surprise me

Hes a play action QB and the jags have no run game

Were you living under a rock? He was being hyped as the greatest QB prospect ever while in school.

 

[Joe Sixpack]

He doesn’t have Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross to make circus catches against mid College DBs anymore that’s what happened.

If you go back and watch that Bama/Clemson game in 2019, Trevor really didn’t do anything special, it was Clemson taking advantage of a weak side of Bama’s secondary and receivers making crazy plays, unlike Deshaun Watson who was basically Superman in the 2 title games he played in.

I always felt like the hype was a bit too much, he was getting that Elway/Luck “generational” label and I have yet to see it.

So we gonna act like he didnt come back from bein down 27-0 in a playoff game????

That means nothing at all to ya’ll????



The Coli is undefeated!