There was a time when Kentucky boasted its own professional basketball team. The Kentucky Colonels, a charter member of the old American Basketball Association, had star players and a passionate fan base and even won a title in 1975.
But as with Louisville’s professional baseball teams of the past, professional sports are a distant memory in the Derby City, which is decidedly in love with collegiate athletics.
Pro sports still has its supporters in Louisville, although their efforts to bring a franchise to Louisville might seem to be going on in the background.
But a recent study might give them something to talk about — or at the least, provide a little more tinder for the rhetorical fire that often surrounds such conversations.
A study by G. Scott Thomas, a researcher for American City Business Journals, the parent company of Louisville Business First, examines which markets — including Louisville — are most likely to financially support professional sports. His findings are based on a series of factors, including total personal income in the market, ticket prices and team revenue data.
The findings might be surprising to some. According to the study, a Major League Soccer franchise has the most potential to survive in Louisville.
That’s likely because soccer -— by a factor of three — is the most affordable of the five sports ranked. Louisville was one of 37 markets to notch a 100 score, which indicates the city’s financial capacity to support a team.
Louisville, of course, recently entered the soccer world in a larger way when Louisville City FC kicked off its inaugural season in the minor leagues. Early returns appear favorable, and it might be possible to see how the city could rally around an MLS franchise in the future. More on that later.
That is clearly not the case for Major League Baseball, the most expensive of the five, where Louisville scored a 34.
As for football, hockey and basketball, the verdict is a little murkier. Each of those sports scored in the 70 range, which is considered borderline and just above the level that denotes an insufficient income base.
For any of those sports to work here, the fan base would have to extend outside of the metro area’s boundaries.
Adding a pro team is unlikely in the view of Karl Schmitt, executive director of the Louisville Sports Commission, a nonprofit organization that works to attract and host sporting events in Louisville.
“As a practical matter, I don’t think Louisville could ever get professional football, professional baseball or professional hockey because of the number of the teams that are in the region,” he said.
Numerous pro sports franchises are within a short drive of Louisville: the Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans of the NFL; the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals from MLB; the Indiana Pacers of the NBA;and the Nashville Predators from the NHL.
“Those are regional draws,” Schmitt noted.
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In particular, and despite hockey’s presence in Nashville, he doesn’t see viability for hockey here because of limited natural affinity.
Since 1998, the Predators have called Nashville home and draw an average of 16,851 fans to games at Bridgestone Arena, which seats 17,113 for hockey.
Likewise, and despite Louisville’s status as a basketball town, a skeptical Schmitt raises the specter of a “very expensive ticket” and surmises that the city lacks sufficient corporate backing for a pro franchise to support an NBA team.
But he sees the plausibility of MLS.
“Soccer is the most affordable and the best set of all those options in pro sports,” he said. “And the most practical.”
A case for MLS
A
Major League Soccer team is on the mind of one Louisville businessman —
Wayne Estopinal, an architect by day and also chairman of Louisville City FC. He’s widely credited with bringing the professional minor league franchise here. But he’s not ready to think too far ahead yet.
“I think it’s going to take us a year or so to understand what we can or can’t do in Louisville,” Estopinal said. “I can tell you that numerous owners in our group have a serious interest in going into MLS, and they likely have the financial wherewithal to do that.”
Estopinal said MLS commissioner
Don Garber has told him a city must prove that the market can support a team, prove the team is successful, and have a stadium deal before it can support a franchise.
“Right now, we are in our infancy of all those aspects, so I think we’ve got a lot to prove before we can even start putting a time line on this,” he said.
Yet there are ongoing discussions about building a stadium for Louisville City FC, he said. The team, which made its debut on March 28 at Louisville Slugger Field, won’t be able to stay there long if it wants to grow. It will need concession and advertising revenues to build value in the club, Estopinal said.
A new soccer stadium would most likely seat 10,000 people, he said, with the idea of making it expandable to 22,000 if Louisville ever moved to the major leagues.
“There are very passive strategies in place that will help us get there,” he said. “But are they active at this point? Not more than just design and strategic thinking.”
Estopinal doubts an MLS team could draw 20,000 or more fans per game, but he does think it is conceivable to expect 18,000. There are 20 MLS teams currently, playing a 34-game regular season.
“Hopefully with a very strong fan base with corporate support (and) good municipal support, we can get out here and be a very competitive team in the MLS. But right now, we have a lot to prove in the (United Soccer League).”
The ACBJ study said an MLS team requires $14 billion in total personal income to thrive -— three times less expensive than any of the other four sports on the list. With $35 billion in TPI available in Louisville, the city would be in a financial position to support a team.
The city also has strong youth, high school and travel soccer programs, Schmitt said, which could help make the franchise popular.
“No doubt about it, Major League Soccer is a player in the national landscape and will only grow and a become more prominent over the years,” he said.
What if there’s only room for one?
J. Bruce Miller is the name most commonly associated with trying to draw the NBA to Louisville. For about three decades, the Louisville attorney has made it a personal mission to bring a team here.
Despite coming up short on a number of occasions, he’s still at it. Miller told Business First he is currently in negotiations with three entities to organize funds for a professional basketball team. He declined to disclose specifics.
Major League Baseball is the most expensive of the five sports included in the study. Here’s how the five sports break down in terms of needed TPI:
Major League Soccer:$14 billion
National Basketball Association:$45 billion
National Football League:$48 billion
National Hockey League:$50 billion
Major League Baseball:$104 billion
How Louisville scored in each of the five sports
100: Major League Soccer
78: National Basketball Association
73: National Football League
70: National Hockey League
34: Major League Baseball
Research by G. Scott Thomas, ACBJ
About the ACBJ study
A new study from
American City Business Journals, the parent company of Louisville Business First, analyzed 83 markets in the United States and Canada to determine if they have the financial ability to support new professional teams in baseball, football, basketball, hockey and soccer.
The ACBJ findings are based largely on each market’s total personal income (TPI), the sum of all money earned by all residents in a given year. It compared the local income base to the financial needs of teams in the five sports, determining the likelihood that a new franchise would prosper.
The analysis used TPI data to calculate a capacity score for every market that currently lacks a team in any of the five professional leagues. The study estimated the TPI that a market would need to support a pro sports team, based on team revenues and ticket prices.
It is important to note, however, that other considerations would be important in any decision to expand or relocate a franchise. Among those factors would be proximity to existing teams, the availability of stadiums and unique local factors.
