Can u summarize please?
I have no insurance and I’m shook of all this.
Here’s the gist. Imperial College, one of the best universities in the world, plugged infection and death rates from China, South Korea, and Italy into epidemic modeling software to predict what would happen in the U.S.
The results:
- If we went on business as usual, 80% of Americans would get the disease. 4 million Americans would die in 3 months.
- They ran it again assuming a mitigation strategy...all symptomatic cases in quarantine and their families in quarantine, all people over 70 social distancing. In this scenario, 2 million American deaths.
- They ran it again assuming a suppression strategy...basically where we’re at now, shutting businesses down, working from home, entire population social distancing, etc. In this case, the death rate in the US peaks in 3 weeks with a few thousand deaths.
- Now the catch. If we EVER relax the suppression strategy before a vaccine is widely available, we go right back to the first scenario. They just just started testing a vaccine, which will take 14 months to monitor if it’s safe. Then another few months to mass produce. So basically we could be looking at 18 months of living this suppression lifestyle.
