Ethiopia and Eritrea agree to restore relations

[2Quik4UHoes]

What about the Oromo faction of the EPRDF? Surely, they'll gain more influence within the Ethiopian state?

Surely, but that to me works to the benefit of the Weyene as well as this is still the same government. The only difference between Abiy and Desalegn is Abiy is younger and bringing reforms that the ruling regime can tolerate. On the one hand I’m sure the TPLF didn’t want to cede Badme but that’s a small price for the euphoria generated since re-establishing ties.

Hell, look at how Meles is viewed today. They got the same thing now except younger, a member the majority group and the group that felt most marginalized, and he’s charismatic enough to capture the people’s attention. It’s a perfect situation for maintaining the overall status quo.

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

African geopolitics brehs

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

Surely, but that to me works to the benefit of the Weyene as well as this is still the same government. The only difference between Abiy and Desalegn is Abiy is younger and bringing reforms that the ruling regime can tolerate. On the one hand I’m sure the TPLF didn’t want to cede Badme but that’s a small price for the euphoria generated since re-establishing ties.

Hell, look at how Meles is viewed today. They got the same thing now except younger, a member the majority group and the group that felt most marginalized, and he’s charismatic enough to capture the people’s attention. It’s a perfect situation for maintaining the overall status quo.

Ceding territory which isn't strategic seems like an easy solve to me but I wasn't a general who saw thousands of my men die in Badme and Zalambessa

 

[JDH]

They are cunning, but I cant buy the idea they are pulling strings in the background. T

heir partisans, media, supporters etc are all very angry about Abiy and I cant see this being part of some huge ruse. The new chairman of TPLF wasnt even invited to the Eritrea trip. I agree that this will likely serve to preserve EPRDF rule, but I maintain that the OPDO are running the ship now.

TPLF is not behind this. There is a reason there was no Tigray representative on the delegation to Asmara even though one of the primary discussion points was border demarcation which concerns Tigray region only. There was even an Afar representative present. OPDO definitely hold the most power in EPRDF now. Also, there is an internal power struggle within the TPLF with the old guard from the Derg war like Aboy Sebhat and Abay Tsehaye who are keen on staying in power and a newer faction who wants to embrace the new Abiy reforms. Tigrayans still control pretty much all the military in Ethiopia so I don't know how the Badme shyt will go since TPLF haven't accepted the decision.

Do you see any annexation possible in the future to reunite the seperated the families after all these years? Eritirea would benefit heavily from Ethiopia's resources.

 

[thatrapsfan]

Moving fast.


Now he has to address growing war between Oromos and Somalis along Oromia's borders. Seems like Abiy has been turning a blind eye to it so far, but millions displaced suggests much of the hinterlands have become a warzone. Ethiopia: Escalating inter-communal violence displaces close to 1M people

 

[JDH]

Lets be real, this deal was way more beneficial for Eritrea than Ethiopia

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

Moving fast.


Now he has to address growing war between Oromos and Somalis along Oromia's borders. Seems like Abiy has been turning a blind eye to it so far, but millions displaced suggests much of the hinterlands have become a warzone. Ethiopia: Escalating inter-communal violence displaces close to 1M people

I think Abiy has a degree in conflict resolution. We'll see if the degree paid off

 

[thatrapsfan]

Surely, but that to me works to the benefit of the Weyene as well as this is still the same government. The only difference between Abiy and Desalegn is Abiy is younger and bringing reforms that the ruling regime can tolerate. On the one hand I’m sure the TPLF didn’t want to cede Badme but that’s a small price for the euphoria generated since re-establishing ties.

Hell, look at how Meles is viewed today. They got the same thing now except younger, a member the majority group and the group that felt most marginalized, and he’s charismatic enough to capture the people’s attention. It’s a perfect situation for maintaining the overall status quo.

Same party is in power, but I dont think its accurate to say its the same Government. Theres been a whole lot of changes in government and even in military since hes been appointed. Hes retired/fired tons of people connected with TPLF and empowered people connected to OPDO. You only need to see how people like this dude are reacting to see if he's popular with TPLF:

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

They are cunning, but I cant buy the idea they are pulling strings in the background. T

heir partisans, media, supporters etc are all very angry about Abiy and I cant see this being part of some huge ruse. The new chairman of TPLF wasnt even invited to the Eritrea trip. I agree that this will likely serve to preserve EPRDF rule, but I maintain that the OPDO are running the ship now.

You may be right, even the assassination attempt might’ve been linked to them. But I get the weird feeling that what anger or push back their may be from the Abiy situation is equally understood by some in that party to be an extension of time.

Or perhaps this is just a case of the Oromos adopting these institutions put in place by the TPLF and using them in their own fashion. In any event, it feels like this could be a convenient sedative against any notions of real reform in the government. It really depends on the people at this point. I’m happy for all the positives but I’m gonna remain suspicious for now.

Do you see any annexation possible in the future to reunite the seperated the families after all these years? Eritirea would benefit heavily from Ethiopia's resources.

Next to impossible. It’s a dream of mine since my maternal ancestry is Eritrean but too much has happened at this point. It would take something extremely radical for that to happen on both sides.

 

[Techniec]

Ethiopia and Eritrea confederation

Somalia, Somaliland, Puntland, and Djibouti confederation

Allah make it happen

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

Ceding territory which isn't strategic seems like an easy solve to me but I wasn't a general who saw thousands of my men die in Badme and Zalambessa

Of course, and I’m sure for some in Badme it’s a bitter feeling to be made a geopolitical pawn in this way. I mean, in this whole mess thousands died on both sides for the glory of a handful of men. It’s insane to think that a people that love each other so much were able to even carry this all out.

Same party is in power, but I dont think its accurate to say its the same Government. Theres been a whole lot of changes in government and even in military since hes been appointed. Hes retired/fired tons of people connected with TPLF and empowered people connected to OPDO. You only need to see how people like this dude are reacting to see if he's popular with TPLF:

Interesting, and all be honest I haven’t paid enough attention to the pushback from the TPLF I just heard in passing and it was an obvious conclusion to come to given the Badme situation. I’m thinking if the tension increases then you may be right regarding the internal coup taking place.

Even if this IS a situation where there are OPDO officials now, new actors still working the same stage imo. For me, until politics and political parties are not based on tribe and elections take place based on actual political values. Abiy can plant the seeds for that by inspiring this generation. The failure of Haile Selassie was that his campaign to educate a whole generation in the West wasn’t met with equal reforms. If Abiy keeps up whispering these sweet nothings in the ear of Ethiopia he’s gonna have to seriously put up. That should then reveal a lot more.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

Ethiopia and Eritrea confederation

Somalia, Somaliland, Puntland, and Djibouti confederation

Allah make it happen

Years ago I did the numbers on what would happen if there was a united East African confederacy from Sudan to Tanzania/Comoros islands.....East Africa would be fukkin Godbody if that happened. fukk a China, we’d flex up more than they ever could without the population control issues.

Edit: Africa as a whole would gain a lot from forming regional confederations. A Federal state might be too much to ask but the more large areas with resources can consolidate the better.

 

[thatrapsfan]

I think things are moving that way. I see Somalia, Somaliland and Puntland entering some type of confederation in the future with a Swiss or EU type of set-up. I think your people are tired of war.

Its the opposite right now, our neighbours are running laps around us and thinking big while Somali politics gets more and more parochial See SL/PL border war, Somali Fed Government fukkery, and Shabab displaying continung strength.

 

[Sinnerman]

Years ago I did the numbers on what would happen if there was a united East African confederacy from Sudan to Tanzania/Comoros islands.....East Africa would be fukkin Godbody if that happened. fukk a China, we’d flex up more than they ever could without the population control issues.

Edit: Africa as a whole would gain a lot from forming regional confederations. A Federal state might be too much to ask but the more large areas with resources can consolidate the better.

You made a thread on this a few years back right?

 

[Techniec]

Years ago I did the numbers on what would happen if there was a united East African confederacy from Sudan to Tanzania/Comoros islands.....East Africa would be fukkin Godbody if that happened. fukk a China, we’d flex up more than they ever could without the population control issues.

Edit: Africa as a whole would gain a lot from forming regional confederations. A Federal state might be too much to ask but the more large areas with resources can consolidate the better.

You included Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya etc?

I feel the same way about our part of the world

Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh

Arab states

The future is regional