Part 2
Case No. 3: Marcus Semien (5.8) versus Mookie Betts (5.8), Rafael Devers (4.8) and Xander Bogaerts (4.8)
Speaking of MVP talk, we hear Devers and Bogaerts mentioned as American League MVP candidates (non-Mike Trout division), but not Semien, the underrated shortstop for the A's. Numbers:
Semien: .272/.355/.491, .846 OPS, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 100 runs
Betts: .289/.388/.516, .905 OPS, 25 HR, 75 RBI, 125 runs
Devers: .318/.367/.575, .941 OPS, 29 HR, 107 RBI, 114 runs
Bogaerts: .310/.386/.574, .960 OPS, 31 HR, 103 RBI, 102 runs
Robert Sanchez
10 more hilarious baseball cards
This one is about park effects and defense. The three Red Sox players are having better offensive seasons, but the difference -- again -- is not significantly better, especially after factoring in Fenway Park (hitters' park) and Oakland (pitchers' park). Baseball-Reference has Bogaerts at 38 runs above average, Devers at 32, Semien at 27 and Betts at 26.
Then we get to defense:
Semien: plus-2 DRS
Betts: plus-12
Devers: minus-6
Bogaerts: minus-20
When translating runs to wins, every 10 runs is approximately one win of value, so Bogaerts is losing about two wins of WAR due to his defense. Is he really 20 runs worse than an average shortstop? That, dear readers, is a debate for another day. Remember: Defensive evaluation is controversial! For the record, Bogaerts is steady, but probably does lack range. He was at minus-19 DRS last season and minus-11 the season before, so DRS is at least consistent in his evaluation.
Bottom line: Semien has quietly had an outstanding season, even if it's not a super flashy outstanding season. He gets on base, hits for power, plays every game and has turned into a solid shortstop. Props.
Case No. 4: Nick Ahmed (4.4) versus Freddie Freeman (4.3)
Wait, what? Freeman is hitting .300, has 38 home runs and leads the majors with 114 RBIs. Ahmed is hitting .264 with 17 home runs and 77 RBIs ... which, wow, when did Nick Ahmed become a competent major league hitter? Still, nice numbers, but not MVP-caliber numbers like Freeman.
You can guess where this one is going. Freeman has a 33-run advantage with his hitting (32 to minus-1), but Ahmed makes up for it in other areas:
Defense: plus-18 to plus-4
Baserunning: plus-4 to plus-1
Avoiding double plays: 0 to minus-2
Position adjustment: plus-7 to minus-7
Freeman will finish high in the MVP voting. Ahmed will be lucky to get a 10th-place vote or two. I'm not suggesting that's criminal if that happens. I'd take Freeman as well. We can at least acknowledge that Ahmed, who will probably win his second straight Gold Glove, has become a very valuable player for the Diamondbacks.
Case No. 5: Kolten Wong (4.5) versus Gleyber Torres (3.7)
This one is interesting because we're comparing two middle infielders, not a shortstop and first baseman. Torres has 34 home runs and Wong has 10, so there's 24 runs right there! Despite Torres' big edge in power, his offensive edge over Wong is only 10 runs -- 20 runs above average to 10. Wong's advantage is a higher OBP (.346 to .368), although surprisingly park effects have little to do with this comparison as Busch Stadium and Yankee Stadium both rate as slight pitchers' parks.
What? Yankee Stadium, with that Little League porch in right field?
Remember, park effects are about run environment and not whether a park is simply just a good home run park or about a player's specific home/road splits. Yankee Stadium boosts home runs, but takes away in other areas (doubles, mostly) to make it a more neutral park overall. Understanding run environment is important. It's not suggesting this player will perform a certain way in another park. It's just placing a value on the runs a player has created in his home park. Five runs at Petco is more valuable than five runs at Coors Field.
Anyway, Wong grades at plus-13 runs on defense and Torres at minus-4, making up for Torres' offensive edge. I mentioned earlier that WAR doesn't take clutch hitting into account (or timely hitting, if you dislike the term "clutch"). It also doesn't factor in a player's batting order position. Wong has spent most of the season hitting seventh or eighth. His on-base skills would have been more valuable if he hit in front of Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna all season, since he'd score more runs than he did while hitting in front of the pitcher, but WAR values a player in a neutral context, stripped of his humanity and regarded as only the sum of bases gained and outs made.
Case No. 6: Jon Gray (4.5) versus Hyun-Jin Ryu (4.0)
Well, this is a bit barbarian: The guy who has been the Cy Young favorite most of the season versus the perennially frustrating Gray, who is now out for the season with a foot fracture.
What's the deal here? Well, park effects, of course. Gray, pitching half the time on Mars, has a park factor of 116.2; Ryu has a park factor of 96.
The second hidden factor is defense. The Rockies' defense is essentially average -- minus-.08 runs per nine innings. Defensive runs saved views the Dodgers' defense as the best in the game and credits it with helping Ryu to a whopping 0.54 runs per nine innings. Gray also has faced slightly tougher lineups (including the Dodgers three times).
Baseball-Reference's evaluation says Gray's 3.84 ERA in 150 innings while having to pitch at Coors Field is more impressive than Ryu's 2.45 ERA in 161.2 innings at Dodger Stadium with a great defense behind him.
Assuming Ryu gets back on track after his recent struggles, I don't think Cy Young voters will be buying this one, however. Ryu probably still rates as the favorite or co-favorite, even if he does rank just tied for 10th among NL pitchers in WAR.
Case No. 7: David Fletcher (3.3) versus Eugenio Suarez (2.9) and Jorge Soler (2.6)
It's OK to admit that you don't know who David Fletcher is. He plays for the Angels. Mostly third base, but also 25 games at shortstop, 15 at second base and 17 in the outfield. Second-year guy.
We present this:
Fletcher: 5 home runs
Suarez: 40 home runs
Soler: 40 home runs
This is why some people hate WAR. They can't wrap their heads around the idea that a five-homer player could be more valuable than a 40-homer hitter, even in a time when everyone hits home runs. Or maybe because everyone is hitting home runs. No power, no love.
What's the story? Well, Fletcher isn't a complete zero on offense. He gets on base (.345 OBP), hits some doubles, plays good defense (plus-10 DRS) and gets a positional adjustment of plus-3 runs. He's a nice, underappreciated kind of player.
Suarez has created 93 runs to 70 for Fletcher, but after park effects that difference ends up as 15-run advantage. His defense at third is below average at minus-2 DRS. With the other minor tweaks, Fletcher moves ahead in WAR. Soler is better on offense (25 runs above average), but he's a plodding right fielder (minus-8 DRS) and has also started 89 games at DH so gets a positional adjustment of minus-10 runs.
Bottom line, I guess: There's more to baseball than home runs, even in 2019.
Case No. 8: Billy Hamilton (0.7) versus Franmil Reyes (0.5)
Reyes is already a minor legend of sorts, with rockets and lasers and towering home runs. He has the fifth-highest average exit velocity in the game and has ripped 34 home runs. He's fun to watch for that possibility that he may hit the next pitch 500 feet. It's also really his only skill. He can't run, he's bad on defense, he doesn't draw many walks. There's a reason the Padres traded him and why the Indians are using him as a DH. He does have flaws.
Hamilton is his polar opposite, a guy how makes his living with his legs. He hasn't homered all year. If my math is correct, that's 34 to 0 in favor of Reyes. Hamilton is also hitting .218 with a .285 OBP and the Royals waived him. He can't possibly be more valuable than a guy hitting .254/.316/.531 with 34 home runs, can he?
WAR says, yes, it is possible.
Here's what I know: I'd love to see a team of Billy Hamiltons take on a team of Franmils.
, gonna need it 
:metsahh:
