While I think you're right about caution, I just don't believe that stops the premier talent from pooling in the same places, which has given us the same results for the last decade plus. Bama, Georgia, Clemson, Oklahoma, LSU, 1-2 Texas schools, Tennessee, etc. Ohio State does very well but overall It's always gonna be a sport where southern (black) talent predominantly goes to schools below the Mason Dixon line. And I don't really need to see 12 teams when there's no reason to believe there will be more than 5-6 teams who can objectively win a championship. What we're going to get is the playoffs essentially becoming another SEC championship, plus OSU/Michigan/USC/Oklahoma.
NIL makes this worse IMO because there will always be a program that decides to spend big with no real path to competing. Miami has a top 5 class this year due to boosters handing out checks. Last year it was Texas A&M. So while NIL spreads some talent around it also re-enforces the dominance Georgia/Bama/LSU/etc will have. There was a story last month about Ohio State realizing they can't even afford the level of recruits Georgia is getting for 2mil.
I think you are short-sighted.
If more teams are able to make the playoff and compete, over time, schools won't be able to stack five-star recruits at the same position as they can do now. More conferences will get lucrative TV contracts because those schools will be able to compete for a national title, etc.
I am not saying the top and premier schools won't win a big share of the titles, but I started watching college football when the SEC wasn't shyt Clemsoning wasn't even a thing because Clemson was not a major program, LSU was a joke, etc while Penn State, Notre Dame, the Florida schools, Nebraska and Colorado as the premier programs in college football. Nothing is fixed and this tournament will create more parity among the Power Five schools over time.
Also, NIL is a big-time game changer for smaller programs too. We saw Deion Sanders get a five-star recruit to play in FCS for an HBCU through a NIL and his charisma, and he pulled in four-star players.
This thread is in reaction to TCU getting their asses handed to them in the National Title Game. TCU was a middle-tier WAC/Mountain West school for most of the last 30 years. If you can't see that as progression and how nothing is fixed, then you are not paying attention.
Nothing stays the same.