DonKnock Presents: Circumstances Advancing The 2nd Chance For This, Beloved [HOU v. GS] WCSF Thread

Who Moves on to the WCF?


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GoddamnyamanProf

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I win forever.

:mjlit:
:scust: Biggest reason to root against the Warriors

Every time they win this cretin comes crawling out of his hiding space


That white fakkit @GoddamnyamanProf prob suicidal

Hopefully he does the world a favor and commits that tonight, you got nothing to live for you white dog :umad:
Oh good, its also the coli's resident ***** poster doing his incel routine. Very cool bro
 

Conscious Pilot

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LeBron be tweeting like he Magic Johnson
repped


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Osmosis

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Rockets looked like the more talented team but their strategy is so stupid. Isoing two players every possession is never gonna win a title.
 

Stone

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Rockets looked like the more talented team but their strategy is so stupid. Isoing two players every possession is never gonna win a title.
They scored plenty of points but couldn’t get stops. Game 5 harden just stopped shooting midway through the 4th
 

Regular_P

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The tragic thing about this Rockets game 6 loss is that it "looks" worse because Kevin Durant isn't playing but the Rockets actually had a better chance of winning this series if Kevin Durant played. The Rockets defense these past 2 years was designed to force KD Isolations which bog down the offense as opposed to the style ball movement which made GS famous but is harder to defend. Here's some numbers:
Via Second Spectrum the Warriors offense per 100 possessions this season (not just a narrative):
KD on court - 14.6 isolation plays, 307 passes
KD off court - 10.7 isolation plays, 356 passes


Golden State is now 30-4 in the last 3 seasons WITHOUT Kevin Durant.

I've spent a significant amount of my time over the past 3-4 trying to determine what a player is worth to the point spread in every situation. I've stressed this for years to people close to me but everything we've seen the past 3 years through the on/off numbers and on court impact has shown us that the betting markets have been wrong about Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving's impact to their individual teams (Warriors and Celtics, Cavs apply as well for Kyrie) for years. Both are incredible scorers whose absence to their current teams simply doesn't warrant a 3 or 4 point line move and yet for years I've watched the betting markets over adjust to their absence.

Although Kevin Durant was worth 4-5 points to OKC, to GS he's probably worth 1 point or so (depending on the opposing team-He'd be worth more against the 2016 Cavs for instance because it forces Lebron to have to guard another player and not play center field).


Oddsmakers had Houston laying -3 in Game 3, -1.5 in Game 4....and laying a whopping -7.5 in G6. My own personal math model using 2019 playoff numbers made Warriors 3.28 point underdogs.


warriors.jpg
Yep, I mentioned this earlier in the series. The Warriors are a rhythm team but against Houston with KD they get caught up in Houston's switching and resort to way too many isos with Durant.

He's amazing but it throws the rest of the team out of whack because it isn't in tune with how they're supposed to play. Durant's numbers look amazing but the rest of the team suffers even if they're still pulling out wins.

This team will always be at its best when Curry is the focal point which means the ball is moving. That's why I'll always maintain that Curry is the best player on this team and the league. His impact is still greater than anyone else's in the league.
 
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