Is the Phillies' window closed already?
- Thread starter HHR
- Start date
For instance, Brett Lawrie currently leads the AL in WAR (5.0) and plays 3B. Does anyone really think the Jays would turn down Miguel Cabrera (WAR of 3.0) if the Tigers offered him straight up for Lawrie? 
For instance, Brett Lawrie currently leads the AL in WAR and plays 3B. Does anyone think the Jays would turn down Miguel Cabrera if the Tigers offered him straight up for Lawrie?
i dont think they would want that contract, they got lucky and found a sucker for rios
So Miggy's completely justifiable contract would deter them from that trade?
well its just not that
its his struggles with weight, alcohol, and commitment to baseball which would deter most teams from taking that contract
WAR isn't perfect, but it's pretty accurate.
The problem in Lawrie's case is that so much of that value is determined to have come from his defense. And advanced defensive metrics aren't close to as accurate as their offensive counterparts. Plus, defensive metrics are far more prone to fluctuation over half seasons and even full seasons.
In THIS instance, Lawrie has a crazy high defensive-WAR score because Toronto moves him into the hole when they shift...and they shift a lot. This has inflated his perceived defensive value...he obviously isn't worth a full win more with the glove than everyone else in baseball.
So, even though WAR is hardly perfect, if you look closer you get a better picture of how a player is being valued using it.
Rollins dWAR numbers are pretty consistent over the last several years, which gives me a lot more faith in their accuracy.
The problem in Lawrie's case is that so much of that value is determined to have come from his defense. And advanced defensive metrics aren't close to as accurate as their offensive counterparts. Plus, defensive metrics are far more prone to fluctuation over half seasons and even full seasons.
In THIS instance, Lawrie has a crazy high defensive-WAR score because Toronto moves him into the hole when they shift...and they shift a lot. This has inflated his perceived defensive value...he obviously isn't worth a full win more with the glove than everyone else in baseball.
So, even though WAR is hardly perfect, if you look closer you get a better picture of how a player is being valued using it.
Rollins dWAR numbers are pretty consistent over the last several years, which gives me a lot more faith in their accuracy.
And to be dead ass honest....the Blue Jays probably wouldn't trade Lawrie for Cabrera. Not because they feel that Lawrie is better, but rather that he is under team control through 2018! and isn't even arbitration eligible until 2015.
Over the next 4 years (including this one), Cabrera will make more than $80 million....and Lawrie will make about $5 million. It's an interesting discussion though....
Over the next 4 years (including this one), Cabrera will make more than $80 million....and Lawrie will make about $5 million. It's an interesting discussion though....
Oh man, why y’all wanna get me started on this topic, lol….
First of all…if the window is closing, it's closing on this core of players who won in 2008. It's not closing on the Phillies franchise, let's not act like this isn't a big-market team with the ability to compete every year. But yunno, I’m actually somewhat glad that things are steamrolling badly for my squad at the moment, because that will mean drastic actions will be taken to rectify the situation….but that gladness is tempered a bit, I confess, as I just hope that those actions are proper and correct. Cause I gotta tell you, it’s getting more difficult to fully trust this front office. Case in point:
Yes, Ryan Howard’s contract is stupid just like Papelbon’s contract is even MORE fukking stupid. (Also, the Phillies actually had no choice but to resign Rollins because they have absolutely no one behind him, which is the problem with this team). The real problem, though, is that this front office’s decision-making with personnel moves has been shytacular for a MINUTE now. The bad contracts started two years ago, when they gave $31M over 3 years to Ibanez, then turned around and gave sorry ass Joe Blanton a 3-year, $14M deal (I believe that was the figure…something like that), THEN gave Kyle Kendrick a 2-year, $7.5M deal earlier this year. Like, seriously Rueben? NONE of those guys deserved deals, and I love Ibanez as a player, plus he’s one of the nicest guys you’ll ever meet. But come the fukk on, Ruben….sure, we loved him when he got Doc and brought back Cliff Lee the second time, but Amaro really hasn’t had an effect personnel-wise OTHER than doing those two things. The Oswalt experiment didn’t work and this nikka Hunter Pence is a complete disaster.
Really, my beef with these hoes stems from one unavoidable fact: in only three short years, ALL of the Phillies’ former strengths – those things which made them winners - are now their biggest, glaring weaknesses:
Also, Charlie Manuel is starting to make far too many baffling ass decisions in-game. This has actually been going on bit-by-bit over the last two and a half years, he’s starting to have more and more “WTMF” moments out this hoe. And his devotion to the idea of loyalty has always been troublesome (e.g., insisting on letting Rollins lead off, playing more veterans instead of younger guys). Not to mention, far too many times over the last few years he’s let players dictate to HIM instead of the other way around….like letting guys pitch so far into games….for so often…..like, in damn near every outing….
…which brings me to my next point. Personally, I think Doc and Cliff Lee both pitched too many innings over the previous two seasons, and it’s being manifested now in their performances, and particularly with their pitch control. It’s common fact that both of these guys are amongst the PREMIERE pitchers in the game when they have complete command of their pitches. But ever since Spring training started there were whispers about Doc’s control issues, and Cliff Lee has had serious control issues all year (it’s like this guy forgot how to keep the ball down, like the last two years didn’t exist or some shyt, uncannily annoying). I’m not attributing that DIRECTLY to their struggles/injuries this year, but I don’t think broaching the question is without merit.
Bottom line….it’s probably time for Charlie to go, too. We all KNOW the organization is ready to bust a nut at the idea of Ryne Sandberg coming up from Lehigh Valley to be the next team manager, let’s not act like that’s not their future plan…..
We need to start moving guys. Sorry, but the run is over. We are officially in rebuilding mode because this group has maxed out its title potential. They’re going to need to start over and get rid of some key pieces in order to infuse the starting lineup and the farm system. There are needs at several key positions (2nd and 3rd base for one, SS and right fielder, as well) due to age or injuries (or both). The farm system is pretty bare with positional talent, but the Phils still have a lot of pitching prospect depth. So if they make any moves, it’ll be for young talent at the positional level.
I don’t want to lose Cole Hamels. Period. He’s EASILY one of the top five best pitchers in the game right now. And although they COULD trade him and then try to bid for him during free agency, like they did with Cliff Lee, I as a passionate Phillies fan have come to accept the FACT that Cole Hamels IS NOT going to resign with this team. Point being, I don’t think he nor his wife like it here because the fans inexplicably treat him like shyt while lauding Cliff Lee, even though Hamels has ALREADY won a WS title AND WSMVP and Cliff Lee hasn’t done anything more than beat the Yankees ONCE over three years ago. Holy fukking shyt, I am SO SICK of Cliff Lee getting a fukkin’ pass in this city. I would rather trade Cliff Lee than Cole, actually. More upside, already proven….I mean, think about this: what did Cliff Lee do in Texas once they reached the big stage? He didn’t get it done. Last year he blew a FOUR RUN LEAD to the fukking Cardinals AT HOME to completely turn the tide of the series. Cole Hamels ain’t never blown a damn playoff game like that, breh…he’s already WON a World Series MVP! And you want to get rid of HIM for a guy who ain’t won shyt? What the fukk is wrong with these people?
Anyway…..that aside, and projecting realistically, I think you trade Hamels, Victorino and Hunter Pence. Not saying all together, but each could net a nice return of prospects. Pence might be the most attractive, actually, because he’s under contract until 2013 so any new team would have some flexibility with him. Hell, I also personally think you could get a decent prospect for b*stardo….he’s a young lefty with some big-game experience (wherein he performed pretty well) and alotta upside, plus any team would have him under contract for a minute.
Meh….whatever. I’mma still be at Citizen’s Bank damn near every home game Friday, regardless (we tailgate in the parking lot adjacent to the First Base gate, holla!). When you ride or die with your squad, you take seasons like this with a grain of salt.
First of all…if the window is closing, it's closing on this core of players who won in 2008. It's not closing on the Phillies franchise, let's not act like this isn't a big-market team with the ability to compete every year. But yunno, I’m actually somewhat glad that things are steamrolling badly for my squad at the moment, because that will mean drastic actions will be taken to rectify the situation….but that gladness is tempered a bit, I confess, as I just hope that those actions are proper and correct. Cause I gotta tell you, it’s getting more difficult to fully trust this front office. Case in point:
Yes, Ryan Howard’s contract is stupid just like Papelbon’s contract is even MORE fukking stupid. (Also, the Phillies actually had no choice but to resign Rollins because they have absolutely no one behind him, which is the problem with this team). The real problem, though, is that this front office’s decision-making with personnel moves has been shytacular for a MINUTE now. The bad contracts started two years ago, when they gave $31M over 3 years to Ibanez, then turned around and gave sorry ass Joe Blanton a 3-year, $14M deal (I believe that was the figure…something like that), THEN gave Kyle Kendrick a 2-year, $7.5M deal earlier this year. Like, seriously Rueben? NONE of those guys deserved deals, and I love Ibanez as a player, plus he’s one of the nicest guys you’ll ever meet. But come the fukk on, Ruben….sure, we loved him when he got Doc and brought back Cliff Lee the second time, but Amaro really hasn’t had an effect personnel-wise OTHER than doing those two things. The Oswalt experiment didn’t work and this nikka Hunter Pence is a complete disaster.
Really, my beef with these hoes stems from one unavoidable fact: in only three short years, ALL of the Phillies’ former strengths – those things which made them winners - are now their biggest, glaring weaknesses:
- Plate discipline. It used to be that this team hit for power (at least, back during their WS run). So when that ENDED, they never adjusted. The Phillies have some of THE WORST plate discipline in the league, these bytch ass nikkas swing at ANYTHING (don’t get me started on Hunter Pence, I’m convinced that dude is on some Dustin Hoffman “Rain Man” shyt).
- Bullpen. A strength the last two seasons, these bytches is shytty now. b*stardo is having a bad year, Stuets gone, Schwimmer is underwhelming, Chad Qualls is a fukking fakkit who needs his head blown off (I SWEAR, if that clown blows ONE MORE late-game lead….), at least Diekman shows promise, we’re gonna need him in about a year or two. But yeah, this is the worst unit on the entire squad.
- Defense – the Phillies were ROUTINELY ranked amongst the best teams defensively in the league during the last few years. This year, ehhh…not so much, right? Over the last two years their errors have increased significantly, and they’re the type of STUPID, “what were you thinking” errors that belie their veteran status. Not to mention…Hunter Pence is THE WORST fukking outfielder I have ever seen in my entire life and I’m not even exaggerating right now. This guy drops ROUTINE fly balls, doesn’t sell out for deep balls, doesn’t dive for shallow balls….that bytch ass nikka couldn’t catch a fukkin’ BUS.
Also, Charlie Manuel is starting to make far too many baffling ass decisions in-game. This has actually been going on bit-by-bit over the last two and a half years, he’s starting to have more and more “WTMF” moments out this hoe. And his devotion to the idea of loyalty has always been troublesome (e.g., insisting on letting Rollins lead off, playing more veterans instead of younger guys). Not to mention, far too many times over the last few years he’s let players dictate to HIM instead of the other way around….like letting guys pitch so far into games….for so often…..like, in damn near every outing….
…which brings me to my next point. Personally, I think Doc and Cliff Lee both pitched too many innings over the previous two seasons, and it’s being manifested now in their performances, and particularly with their pitch control. It’s common fact that both of these guys are amongst the PREMIERE pitchers in the game when they have complete command of their pitches. But ever since Spring training started there were whispers about Doc’s control issues, and Cliff Lee has had serious control issues all year (it’s like this guy forgot how to keep the ball down, like the last two years didn’t exist or some shyt, uncannily annoying). I’m not attributing that DIRECTLY to their struggles/injuries this year, but I don’t think broaching the question is without merit.
Bottom line….it’s probably time for Charlie to go, too. We all KNOW the organization is ready to bust a nut at the idea of Ryne Sandberg coming up from Lehigh Valley to be the next team manager, let’s not act like that’s not their future plan…..
We need to start moving guys. Sorry, but the run is over. We are officially in rebuilding mode because this group has maxed out its title potential. They’re going to need to start over and get rid of some key pieces in order to infuse the starting lineup and the farm system. There are needs at several key positions (2nd and 3rd base for one, SS and right fielder, as well) due to age or injuries (or both). The farm system is pretty bare with positional talent, but the Phils still have a lot of pitching prospect depth. So if they make any moves, it’ll be for young talent at the positional level.
I don’t want to lose Cole Hamels. Period. He’s EASILY one of the top five best pitchers in the game right now. And although they COULD trade him and then try to bid for him during free agency, like they did with Cliff Lee, I as a passionate Phillies fan have come to accept the FACT that Cole Hamels IS NOT going to resign with this team. Point being, I don’t think he nor his wife like it here because the fans inexplicably treat him like shyt while lauding Cliff Lee, even though Hamels has ALREADY won a WS title AND WSMVP and Cliff Lee hasn’t done anything more than beat the Yankees ONCE over three years ago. Holy fukking shyt, I am SO SICK of Cliff Lee getting a fukkin’ pass in this city. I would rather trade Cliff Lee than Cole, actually. More upside, already proven….I mean, think about this: what did Cliff Lee do in Texas once they reached the big stage? He didn’t get it done. Last year he blew a FOUR RUN LEAD to the fukking Cardinals AT HOME to completely turn the tide of the series. Cole Hamels ain’t never blown a damn playoff game like that, breh…he’s already WON a World Series MVP! And you want to get rid of HIM for a guy who ain’t won shyt? What the fukk is wrong with these people?
Anyway…..that aside, and projecting realistically, I think you trade Hamels, Victorino and Hunter Pence. Not saying all together, but each could net a nice return of prospects. Pence might be the most attractive, actually, because he’s under contract until 2013 so any new team would have some flexibility with him. Hell, I also personally think you could get a decent prospect for b*stardo….he’s a young lefty with some big-game experience (wherein he performed pretty well) and alotta upside, plus any team would have him under contract for a minute.
Meh….whatever. I’mma still be at Citizen’s Bank damn near every home game Friday, regardless (we tailgate in the parking lot adjacent to the First Base gate, holla!). When you ride or die with your squad, you take seasons like this with a grain of salt.
mvp_status
Superstar
My man got bulletpoints 
, I had to dap him off G.P
, I had to dap him off G.P
Oh man, why yall wanna get me started on this topic, lol .
First of all if the window is closing, it's closing on this core of players who won in 2008. It's not closing on the Phillies franchise, let's not act like this isn't a big-market team with the ability to compete every year. But yunno, Im actually somewhat glad that things are steamrolling badly for my squad at the moment, because that will mean drastic actions will be taken to rectify the situation .but that gladness is tempered a bit, I confess, as I just hope that those actions are proper and correct. Cause I gotta tell you, its getting more difficult to fully trust this front office. Case in point:
Yes, Ryan Howards contract is stupid just like Papelbons contract is even MORE fukking stupid. (Also, the Phillies actually had no choice but to resign Rollins because they have absolutely no one behind him, which is the problem with this team). The real problem, though, is that this front offices decision-making with personnel moves has been shytacular for a MINUTE now. The bad contracts started two years ago, when they gave $31M over 3 years to Ibanez, then turned around and gave sorry ass Joe Blanton a 3-year, $14M deal (I believe that was the figure something like that), THEN gave Kyle Kendrick a 2-year, $7.5M deal earlier this year. Like, seriously Rueben? NONE of those guys deserved deals, and I love Ibanez as a player, plus hes one of the nicest guys youll ever meet. But come the fukk on, Ruben .sure, we loved him when he got Doc and brought back Cliff Lee the second time, but Amaro really hasnt had an effect personnel-wise OTHER than doing those two things. The Oswalt experiment didnt work and this nikka Hunter Pence is a complete disaster.
Really, my beef with these hoes stems from one unavoidable fact: in only three short years, ALL of the Phillies former strengths those things which made them winners - are now their biggest, glaring weaknesses:
- Plate discipline. It used to be that this team hit for power (at least, back during their WS run). So when that ENDED, they never adjusted. The Phillies have some of THE WORST plate discipline in the league, these bytch ass nikkas swing at ANYTHING (dont get me started on Hunter Pence, Im convinced that dude is on some Dustin Hoffman Rain Man shyt).
- Bullpen. A strength the last two seasons, these bytches is shytty now. b*stardo is having a bad year, Stuets gone, Schwimmer is underwhelming, Chad Qualls is a fukking fakkit who needs his head blown off (I SWEAR, if that clown blows ONE MORE late-game lead .), at least Diekman shows promise, were gonna need him in about a year or two. But yeah, this is the worst unit on the entire squad.
- Defense the Phillies were ROUTINELY ranked amongst the best teams defensively in the league during the last few years. This year, ehhh not so much, right? Over the last two years their errors have increased significantly, and theyre the type of STUPID, what were you thinking errors that belie their veteran status. Not to mention Hunter Pence is THE WORST fukking outfielder I have ever seen in my entire life and Im not even exaggerating right now. This guy drops ROUTINE fly balls, doesnt sell out for deep balls, doesnt dive for shallow balls .that bytch ass nikka couldnt catch a fukkin BUS.
Also, Charlie Manuel is starting to make far too many baffling ass decisions in-game. This has actually been going on bit-by-bit over the last two and a half years, hes starting to have more and more WTMF moments out this hoe. And his devotion to the idea of loyalty has always been troublesome (e.g., insisting on letting Rollins lead off, playing more veterans instead of younger guys). Not to mention, far too many times over the last few years hes let players dictate to HIM instead of the other way around .like letting guys pitch so far into games .for so often ..like, in damn near every outing .
which brings me to my next point. Personally, I think Doc and Cliff Lee both pitched too many innings over the previous two seasons, and its being manifested now in their performances, and particularly with their pitch control. Its common fact that both of these guys are amongst the PREMIERE pitchers in the game when they have complete command of their pitches. But ever since Spring training started there were whispers about Docs control issues, and Cliff Lee has had serious control issues all year (its like this guy forgot how to keep the ball down, like the last two years didnt exist or some shyt, uncannily annoying). Im not attributing that DIRECTLY to their struggles/injuries this year, but I dont think broaching the question is without merit.
Bottom line .its probably time for Charlie to go, too. We all KNOW the organization is ready to bust a nut at the idea of Ryne Sandberg coming up from Lehigh Valley to be the next team manager, lets not act like thats not their future plan ..
We need to start moving guys. Sorry, but the run is over. We are officially in rebuilding mode because this group has maxed out its title potential. Theyre going to need to start over and get rid of some key pieces in order to infuse the starting lineup and the farm system. There are needs at several key positions (2nd and 3rd base for one, SS and right fielder, as well) due to age or injuries (or both). The farm system is pretty bare with positional talent, but the Phils still have a lot of pitching prospect depth. So if they make any moves, itll be for young talent at the positional level.
I dont want to lose Cole Hamels. Period. Hes EASILY one of the top five best pitchers in the game right now. And although they COULD trade him and then try to bid for him during free agency, like they did with Cliff Lee, I as a passionate Phillies fan have come to accept the FACT that Cole Hamels IS NOT going to resign with this team. Point being, I dont think he nor his wife like it here because the fans inexplicably treat him like shyt while lauding Cliff Lee, even though Hamels has ALREADY won a WS title AND WSMVP and Cliff Lee hasnt done anything more than beat the Yankees ONCE over three years ago. Holy fukking shyt, I am SO SICK of Cliff Lee getting a fukkin pass in this city. I would rather trade Cliff Lee than Cole, actually. More upside, already proven .I mean, think about this: what did Cliff Lee do in Texas once they reached the big stage? He didnt get it done. Last year he blew a FOUR RUN LEAD to the fukking Cardinals AT HOME to completely turn the tide of the series. Cole Hamels aint never blown a damn playoff game like that, breh hes already WON a World Series MVP! And you want to get rid of HIM for a guy who aint won shyt? What the fukk is wrong with these people?
Anyway ..that aside, and projecting realistically, I think you trade Hamels, Victorino and Hunter Pence. Not saying all together, but each could net a nice return of prospects. Pence might be the most attractive, actually, because hes under contract until 2013 so any new team would have some flexibility with him. Hell, I also personally think you could get a decent prospect for b*stardo .hes a young lefty with some big-game experience (wherein he performed pretty well) and alotta upside, plus any team would have him under contract for a minute.
Meh .whatever. Imma still be at Citizens Bank damn near every home game Friday, regardless (we tailgate in the parking lot adjacent to the First Base gate, holla!). When you ride or die with your squad, you take seasons like this with a grain of salt.
I agree with most of this definitely. Everyone can bytch about the Howard contract...but bottom line is u got him for 5 years...rather than having to pay him 7-8-9 years
Sure, u couldve "not resigned him" after his contract was up...but that doesnt make sense either...u cant just find power numbers like he has put up, and will put up in the future, even if not at that great of a pace
The injury sucks, but he will come back from it
Bottom line is we will spend money, and thats all that matters. Sucks to think we might trade Cole, when hes the only one of our pitchers that we really need to keep
you can easily find his power numbers at 1st base
I'm assuming by "power numbers" he means HR/RBIs....which you can't find
Of course, those numbers lead people to grossly overvaluing his actual production, which can be found quite easily around the league.
